In a pattern not all that uncommon for November, a fast flow of air will prevent cold, warm and dry episodes from lasting very long over much of the north-central and northeastern United States well into November.
This battle of two seasons, autumn and winter, will ramp up this month. November can often be a mirror image of March in terms of warm and cold air battles.
For some, what to wear from one day to the next will be a challenge.
Big, southward plunges of cold air are unlikely
Cold air is most likely to win some battles and perhaps the war from the northern Rockies and Plains to the upper Great Lakes and northern New England over the next one to two weeks.
However, farther south, from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley and mid-Atlantic, the waves of chill will be truncated and generally limited to a day or two here and there.
For example, high temperatures during the next couple of weeks around Chicago will range from the lower 40s to the lower 60s F. During the same period in New York City, highs will range from the lower 50s to the lower 70s.
Average highs for the two cities are in the middle and upper 50s respectively for early November.
"There can still be some sneaky cold pockets of air from the Midwest to the Northeast," according to AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok.
"Where skies become clear and winds diminish at night, temperatures can plummet below freezing on occasion," Pastelok said.
A couple of such episodes will occur over the interior Northeast this week.
Active storm track anticipated for Northern states
A characteristic of the back-and-forth pattern will be frequent storms, or at least frequent episodes of precipitation.
For most areas from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and southern New England, much of, and perhaps all of, the precipitation will be in the form of rain.
Most areas in this swath can expect rain or at least some shower activity once every one to three days.
Farther north, the storms will catch up with the cold air at times and bring some chilly rain and/or snow.
This week, a couple of rounds of snow are likely across the northern tier of the Central states. Most of the accumulating snow will be limited to areas that received snow late last week.
"A storm may bring snow to the higher elevations of upstate New York and northern New England later this weekend," Pastelok said.
Gone will be the long stretches of dry and warm conditions. Although at times there will be some brief spikes of warmth.
Winds to rustle leaves
Another consolation to the busy weather pattern will be bouts of wind.
At times the wind can be strong enough to cause some minor airline delays.
At the very least, the windy episodes will make leaf raking and collection a difficult task.
Late-November changes for some, status quo for others
There are some signs that colder air may try to take root over more of the North Central states toward the middle of the month, Pastelok stated.
No long-lasting cold is foreseen in much of the East during much of the second half of the month.
"From mid- to late-November, air masses moving out of central Canada and into the Northeast could briefly knock down temperature departures to average at times, but temperatures are expected to remain above normal overall," Pastelok said.
One area of the nation that may receive very little to no rain during the first two to three weeks of the month may be the Southeastern states.
Temperatures during the first and third weeks of the November may bring much above-average temperatures in the Southeast. Temperatures may dip to near or slightly below average for a few days during the second week of November.
Highs in Atlanta during the first week of November will trend upward through the 70s, then may be mainly in the 60s during much of the second week of the month. The average high for Atlanta is in the upper 60s during the start of November.
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