US intel community warns of 'complex' threats from China, Russia, North Korea

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The U.S. is expected to face a "complex" security environment and will need to work to confront two "critical" strategic challenges: rising powers, like China, seeking dominance in the global order, and challenges like climate change, which could "intersect" and intensify their national security implications, the U.S. intelligence community assessed.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence on Wednesday released its 2023 annual threat assessment, which warned of threats against the U.S. posed by China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. It also warned of global challenges like climate change and evolving technologies that could have the potential to "disrupt" traditional business and society, while creating "unprecedented vulnerabilities."

Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines appears during a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday. (Al Drago/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

"These two strategic challenges will intersect and interact in unpredictable ways, leading to mutually reinforcing effects that could challenge our ability to respond, but that also will introduce new opportunities to forge collective action with allies and partners, including non-state actors," the report states.

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China

As for China, the U.S. intelligence community said the Chinese Communist Party will continue its efforts to make China the "preeminent power in East Asia and a major power on the world stage."

Officials said that Chinese President Xi Jinping, in his third term, will work to press Taiwan on unification and will seek to "undercut U.S. influence" by driving "wedges between Washington and its partners."

"At the same time, China’s leaders probably will seek opportunities to reduce tensions with Washington when they believe it suits their interests," the report states.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Biden shake hands as they meet on the sidelines of the G20 leaders' summit in Bali, Indonesia, on Nov. 14, 2022. (REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque)

The intelligence community warned that Beijing is "increasingly" combining its growing military power with its economic, technological, and diplomatic influence to "strengthen CCP rule, secure what it views as its sovereign territory and regional preeminence, and pursue global influence."

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With regard to Taiwan, the intelligence community warned that the PRC is using "coordinated, whole-of-government tools" as it seeks to assert sovereignty over Taiwan. Officials warned that China may build on its actions from 2022, and include more Taiwan Strait centerline crossings or missile overflights of Taiwan.

Officials also warned that if China succeed in gaining control over Taiwan, it would have "wide-ranging effects, including disruption to global supply chains for semiconductor chips because Taiwan dominates production of cutting-edge chips."

As for China’s military, the intelligence community said Beijing is "accelerating" the development of key capabilities that it believes the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) needs to "confront the United States in a large-scale, sustained conflict." The PLA efforts are designed to "deter U.S. intervention in a future cross-Strait crisis," officials said.

Officials also warned that Beijing is bolstering its domestic defense production capabilities for Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) and advanced conventional weapons. The intelligence community also warned that China is building hundreds of new ICBM silos.

Members of China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force let out a yell as they march in formation during a parade to commemorate the 70th anniversary of the founding of Communist China in Beijing on Oct. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)

"Beijing worries that bilateral tension, U.S. nuclear modernization, and PLA’s advancing conventional capabilities have increased the likelihood of a U.S. first strike," the report states. "Beijing’s heightened confidence in its nuclear deterrent is likely to bolster its resolve and intensify conventional conflicts." 

Meanwhile, the intelligence community assessed that China will remain the "top threat" to U.S. technological competitiveness.

"China is central to global supply chains in a range of technology sectors, including semiconductors, critical minerals, batteries, solar panels, and pharmaceuticals," the report states. "China’s dominance in these markets could pose a significant risk to U.S. and Western manufacturing and consumer sectors if the Government of China was able to adeptly leverage its dominance for political or economic gain."

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As for China’s malign influence operations, the U.S. intelligence community explained that the CCP uses a "sophisticated array of covert, overt, licit, and illicit means to try to soften U.S. criticism, shape U.S. power centers’ views of China, and influence policymakers at all levels of government."

And with regard to cyber and technology, the U.S. intelligence community assesses that China represents the "broadest, most active, and persistent cyber espionage threat to U.S. Government and private-sector networks."

Chinese President Xi Jinping is one of multiple state officials arguing that China's COVID-19 numbers have peaked. (Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS)

"China’s cyber pursuits and its industry’s export of related technologies increase the threats of aggressive cyber operations against the U.S. homeland, suppression of the free flow of information in cyberspace — such as U.S. web content — that Beijing views as threatening to the CCP’s hold on power, and the expansion of technology-driven authoritarianism globally," the report states.

Officials warn that China is "capable of launching cyberattacks that could disrupt critical infrastructure services within the United States, including against oil and gas pipelines, and rail systems."

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"China leads the world in applying surveillance and censorship to monitor its population and repress dissent," the report states." Beijing conducts cyber intrusions that are targeted to affect U.S. and non-U.S. citizens beyond its borders — including journalists, dissidents, and individuals it views as threats — to counter views it considers critical of CCP narratives, policies, and actions."

Officials also warned that China is rapidly expanding and improving its artificial intelligence and big data analytics capabilities, which could expand beyond domestic use.

Russia

Shifting to Russia, the U.S. intelligence community warned that Moscow will remain a "formidable and less predictable challenge to the United States in key areas during the next decade but still will face a range of constraints." 

"Russia probably does not want a direct military conflict with U.S. and NATO forces, but there is potential for that to occur," the intelligence community assessed. "Russian leaders thus far have avoided taking actions that would broaden the Ukraine conflict beyond Ukraine’s borders, but the risk for escalation remains significant."

Russian President Vladimir Putin gives his annual state of the nation address in Moscow on Feb. 21, 2023. (Sergei Karpukhin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Officials assess that Russia will continue to employ military, security, malign influence, cyber and intelligence tools to "undermine the interests of the United States and its allies."

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As for the relationship between China and Russia, the intelligence community assesses the two states will "maintain their strategic ties driven by their shared threat perceptions of the United States."

Officials warn the relationship between China and Russia creates "potential threats in areas such as security collaboration, specifically arms sales and joint exercises, and diplomacy, where each country has used its veto power on the UN Security Council against U.S. interests."

The intelligence community said Russia maintains the "largest and most capable nuclear weapons stockpile, and it continues to expand and modernize its nuclear weapons capabilities."

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Russian nuclear material security also remains a concern, despite improvements to material protection, control, and accounting at Russia’s nuclear sites since the 1990s," the report states.

And while China represents one of the greatest threats to U.S. national security, officials said Russia, too, presents "one of the most serious foreign influence threats to the United States," due to its intelligence services and influence tools that seek to sow discord in the U.S. and influence U.S. voters and decision-making.

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet in Beijing, China on Feb. 4, 2022. (Alexei Druzhinin, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

Iran

Officials said Iran will continue to threaten U.S. people directly and via proxy attacks, particularly in the Middle East, and remains committed to developing "surrogate networks inside the United States, an objective it has pursued for more than a decade."

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, right, speaks with Gen. Ahmad Reza Radan on Jan. 7, 2023. (Office of the Iranian Supreme Leader via AP)

Officials say Iran is "not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a testable nuclear device," but warned Tehran has "accelerated the expansion of its nuclear program."

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"If Tehran does not receive sanctions relief, Iranian officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 percent," the report states.

Iran also represents a "major threat" to U.S. networks and data, due to its capabilities and willingness to conduct "aggressive cyber operations."

North Korea

The U.S. intelligence community assessed that North Korea is continuing its efforts to enhance its nuclear capabilities, targeting the U.S. and its allies.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un attends a politburo meeting of the ruling Workers' Party of Korea in Pyongyang on April 11, 2020. (Korean Central News Agency/Korea News Service via AP, File)

Officials warned that North Korea’s military "will pose a serious threat to the United States and its allies by continuing to invest in niche capabilities" designed to provide Kim Jong Un with a "range of options to deter outside intervention, offset enduring deficiencies in the country’s conventional forces, and advance his political objectives through coercion."

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Kim Jong Un remains "strongly committed" to expanding North Korea’s nuclear weapons arsenal and maintaining nuclear weapons as a "centerpiece of his national security structure," the report states.

Officials also warned that North Korea’s chemical or biological weapons "remain a threat." The report states that the intelligence community is "concerned" that North Korea "may use such weapons during a conflict or in an unconventional or clandestine attack." 

Climate Change

The U.S. intelligence community marked climate change as a threat, saying it will "increasingly exacerbate risks to U.S. national security interests" as the "physical impacts increase and geopolitical tensions mount about the global response to the challenge."

"As temperatures rise and more extreme climate effects manifest, there is a growing risk of conflict over resources associated with water, arable land, and the Arctic," the report states, adding that tensions are also rising between countries over climate financing.

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The report states that geopolitical tensions between countries about how to accelerate reductions in greenhouse gas emissions are "likely to grow," and countries will compete to try to control resources and dominate the new technologies needed for a "global transition to low-carbon energy."

COVID-19 and Health Security

Infectious disease was also included in the assessment following the COVID-19 global pandemic.

The intelligence community said COVID "remains one of the most significant threats to global public health, at a cost of more than 6.5 million lives lost and trillions of dollars in lost economic output to date." 

This aerial view shows the campus of the Wuhan Institute of Virology in Wuhan in China's central Hubei province on May 27, 2020. (HECTOR RETAMAL/AFP via Getty Images)

"Countries globally remain vulnerable to the emergence or introduction of a novel pathogen that could cause a devastating new pandemic," the report states.

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As for the origins of COVID-19, the report states that the intelligence community "continues to investigate" how COVID first infected humans.

"All agencies assess that two hypotheses are plausible explanations for the origin of COVID-19: natural exposure to an infected animal and a laboratory-associated incident," the report states. "Beijing continues to hinder the global investigation, resist sharing information, and blame other countries, including the United States."

Terrorism

U.S. citizens and U.S. interests "at home and abroad" will face a "persistent and increasingly diverse threat" from terrorism during the next year, the report says.

"Individuals and cells adhering to ideologies espoused by ISIS, al-Qa‘ida, or the transnational Racially or Ethnically Motivated Violent Extremists (RMVE) movement pose a significant terrorist threat to U.S. persons, facilities, and interests," the report states. It said Iran and Lebanese Hizballah "remain committed to conducting terrorist attacks and could seek to do so on U.S. soil."

Taliban fighters guard the site of an explosion in Kabul, Afghanistan, on June 18, 2022. (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi) (AP Photo/Ebrahim Noroozi)

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As for ISIS, the IC assessed that the group seeks to "rebuild capabilities and replenish its ranks," and said its ideology will "continue to inspire attacks," including in the U.S.

With regard to Al Qaeda, the IC assessed that the threat the terrorist organization poses in Afghanistan will "depend on the Taliban."