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A disturbance near Mexico is expected to hit Florida as a tropical storm this weekend.
The system was moving northeastward about 125 miles north of Cozumel on Friday and was expected to head across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the southern and central portion of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday.
The National Hurricane Center said that data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that its maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph with higher gusts.
It is forecast to become a tropical storm later Friday, with some slight strengthening possible overnight.
FLORIDA WILL BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AS SOUTHEAST, GULF COAST SEE THUNDERSTORM RISK
It has a 90% chance of formation during the next 48 hours and over the course of the next five days.
The potential tropical cyclone will bring heavy rain to central and southern Florida and the Keys on Friday and Saturday.
Those areas can expect 4 to 8 inches of rain, which could produce considerable flash and urban flooding.
The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas to be flooded by rising water moving inland, including one to three feet from Marco Island, Fla., to Card Sound Bridge.
FLORIDA TO SEE FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM OR DEPRESSION LIKELY TO FORM OVER GULF OF MEXICO
There is also the potential for isolated tornadoes over South Florida beginning Friday night and continuing through Saturday.
The storm will be known as tropical storm Alex in the Atlantic Ocean basin. Alex is the first name on the 2022 list of storm names for the Atlantic Basin.
Tropical storm watches were posted Thursday for Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on Tuesday.
Hurricane Agatha – the strongest hurricane since records have been kept to come ashore in May in the eastern Pacific – made landfall in Mexico Monday afternoon.
The Category 2 hurricane had maximum sustained winds of 105 mph, though it rapidly lost power.
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Oaxaca Gov. Alejandro Murat said Wednesday that Hurricane Agatha left at least 11 dead and that 33 people remain missing.
More than 40,000 people in the state have been affected in the southern Mexico state.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
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