CFP Quarterfinals Picks, Preview: What To Expect in Cotton Bowl, Rose Bowl, More

The quarterfinals of the College Football Playoff have arrived! 

As exciting as that is, wouldn't it be even more exciting if these games were on campus? The teams that earned the top four seeds should get the chance to play at home in the CFP. I'll keep saying that the quarterfinals should be played on campus until I'm blue in the face. We all know that these games would be vastly different if the higher seed got to play at home. 

For now, though, the quarterfinals are at bowl games, and we've got four matchups I'm excited about this week.

That said, let's dive into each and give some picks on who'll win to move on to the semifinals. 

Cotton Bowl: No. 10 Miami (Fla.) vs. No. 2 Ohio State (Wednesday, 7:30 p.m. ET)

The biggest question I have coming into this game is Ohio State's offensive line vs. Miami's defensive line. There has really only been one way OSU has been exposed during the entirety of the year, and that's the O-line. Indiana did both of those things in the Big Ten Championship Game. It got after Buckeyes quarterback Julian Sayin and forced some pressure on him, and it was able to make things difficult — particularly in short-yardage and in the red zone, on the offensive line. Ohio State had trouble converting, and because of that, lost the game and Big Ten title. 

So, Miami needs to duplicate that, and that's where it's strong. It's terrific up front. Edge rusher Rueben Bain is a fantastic player. Miami is great up front and needs to be in order to beat Ohio State. The problem for Miami is that Ohio State has an advantage in the other areas of this game. Head coach Ryan Day is going to be calling the plays, and he's great at that. He's one of the great playcallers I've been around, and he's taking over as outgoing offensive coordinator Brian Hartline got a new job. Day's taking over the playcalling, and you know he's going to be aggressive.

Sayin is a much better player than Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed, and it's a passing game that's much more dynamic than what the Aggies put out there. Again, that defensive line for the Hurricanes must be great. It had better stop the run, force the game on Sayin's arm and get after him. Outside of that, I think Ohio State's going to be able to move the football and score some points.

The problem for Miami really comes on the offensive side. It got a big game from running back Mark Fletcher Jr., but do we think Miami's going to be able to run the football against Ohio State? I don't think it's going to be able to do that as well as it did against Texas A&M. The Aggies' clear weakness on defense was stopping the run, and Miami was able to expose that, but that's not a clear weakness for the Buckeyes. That's a very different defensive front than what they saw against A&M. They're great against the run. They're also great against the pass. That's the best defense in college football. By the way, it's time to start talking about them as historically one of the great defenses we've ever seen in college football. They've only given up 8.2 points per game, which is wild through 13 games. 

I've got Ohio State winning this one.

Pick: Ohio State 27, Miami (Fla.) 14 (Ohio State -9.5)

Orange Bowl: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Texas Tech (Thursday, noon ET)

This one should be good. Oregon head coach Dan Lanning is absolutely right — this game should be played at Texas Tech, and I think it would be a different game if it was. The matchup between Oregon's offensive line and the defensive front seven of Texas Tech is elite. I cannot wait to watch, because Oregon is running the football about as well as anyone in the country; meanwhile, the nation's best rush defense belongs to Texas Tech. Strength against strength. 

The Oregon offensive line struggled against Indiana. Does it struggle here against Texas Tech? The question I have for Tech is its pass defense, because Oregon can be explosive when throwing the football. We know that with quarterback Dante Moore, it can get the ball down the field. That's one of the areas where Tech hasn't been elite. That doesn't mean it isn't good, but it isn't elite defending the pass. 

Oregon, I think, will feel like it's played teams as good or better than Texas Tech. Remember, it saw Indiana. It went and played in a whiteout. It played against USC. No disrespect to Texas Tech, but Oregon faced Indiana, who is the best team in the country. Oregon lost that game. But now, it's going to face Texas Tech and Texas Tech is going to look across that field and I don't think it can confidently say, "Yeah, we've faced a team that's Oregon's level." It played Utah on the road and BYU twice. The best quarterback Texas Tech played all year was Sam Leavitt, and that was the only game it lost. Leavitt threw for over 300 yards in that game for Arizona State.

Linebacker Jacob Rodriguez helped Texas Tech finish third in total and scoring defense this year. Will he and the Red Raiders' defense be good enough to stop the Ducks?  (Photo by John E. Moore III/Getty Images)

That's where I'm a bit nervous for the Red Raiders. Again, I think this is going to be a fabulous game. I love these coaches. I love the investment the programs have made. I love the defenses. I like Texas Tech's defense a little bit more than Oregon's defense. 

Then, it comes down to the intangibles. Oregon's been in tight games and won, like at Iowa and Penn State. Meanwhile, Oregon also lost the Rose Bowl last year, and you've got to understand, this has got to feel more of a beginning. It's worked for 12 straight months, 365 days, to get back to this point. This is where its season begins. This is all it's thought about, getting run out of the building in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State last year. 

Is that the same for Texas Tech? I met with that team before the Utah game and loved every second of those meetings. It was committed, together and an excellent football team. This is going to be an incredible game. But I think, ultimately, Oregon's ability to win close games this year and the fact that it's going to feel really confident about preparing 365 days for this moment will help it win this game in a close one. 

Pick: Oregon 30, Texas Tech 24 (Oregon -2.5)

Rose Bowl: No. 9 Alabama vs. No. 1 Indiana (Thursday, 4 p.m. ET)

I thought Alabama played great against Oklahoma in the first round. Coming back from 17-0 was pretty impressive and the way it did that. Alabama's a passing team, and this is a team that doesn't run the football well. This is who Alabama has been and its identity. But Indiana has seen some good passing attacks. It saw Oregon and Ohio State.

I think Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is an elite player. When I watch the film on Simpson, I'm blown away by his poise in the pocket and his timing. He's in total control and his feet are phenomenal. The footwork allows him to play on time. Playing on time allows him to throw the ball accurately and attack defenses. He does an exceptional job of it.

Simpson will attack this Indiana defense. This is a unique style of defense. Indiana plays a lot of zone coverage, more zone coverage than almost anybody else in college football. But it also pressures, it's called sim pressure or zone pressure, and it does it a lot. There's a ton of movement up front with its defensive line. The best way to describe it to opposing coaches who face Indiana is that it's slippery up front and tough to block. I don't have a ton of faith that Alabama is going to run the football well in this game. It just doesn't run the football well, but it'll lean on the passing game, which is elite. 

I think it's going to be hard for Alabama to protect Simpson. That offensive line, even in a game in which it won against Oklahoma, wasn't playing great. A lot of it is Simpson's ability to elude, play on time and protect himself. So, this Indiana team is likely to get some pressure on Simpson. Does Simpson still play well? Probably, because he plays well all the time. There is some rain in the forecast, and for a team that can't run the football well, some moisture in the air is never a good sign. I'd say that favors Indiana a little bit.

Fernando Mendoza is playing in his first game since winning the Heisman Trophy, with his performance in Indiana's Big Ten Championship Game victory playing a big role in earning that prize.  (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Now, Stephen Daley, the Indiana defensive lineman who got hurt in the celebration after the Big Ten Championship Game, won't be playing in this game. He's top five in tackles for loss. So, that's a huge loss for Indiana, particularly with a defensive front seven that loves to move and get itself into a lot of twists and do creative things. How Indiana makes up for his absence remains to be seen. 

Alabama, defensively, has played pretty well. I don't think it's a great defense, but it's played pretty well. If you go back to early October, it shut out Eastern Illinois and held LSU, which was a dumpster fire at the time, to nine points. Everybody else has scored 20 or more against Alabama since early October. Can Alabama hang on? Indiana's Fernando Mendoza is a much better quarterback than Oklahoma's John Mateer. 

Mateer really struggled in that game against Alabama. He wasn't on time and didn't throw the football well. He gave a couple of freebies to Alabama. Mendoza is battle-tested, faced great defenses and has been behind on the road in the fourth quarter and won. I don't think he's going to flinch it all. This is an Indiana offense that didn't do a lot against Ohio State, but when it needed it, it was great. 

I like Indiana to win in a close one, probably in a classic.

Pick: Indiana 24, Alabama 21 (Alabama +6.5)

Sugar Bowl: No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Georgia (Thursday, 8 p.m. ET)

I think this is where the air leaves the room for Ole Miss. New head coach Pete Golding is coming in, and Lane Kiffin is gone. There was a bit of a circle-the-wagons kind of moment for Ole Miss in its first CFP game. Georgia is just playing too well right now. It's turned into Georgia, particularly on the defensive side. 

Georgia has allowed 10 points or fewer in each of its last four games. It played two matchup games — Texas and Alabama — and Georgia beat them both pretty handily. It has 12.0 sacks over the past five games. It only had 8.0 in its first eight games. So, more than half of its sacks have come over the last month, which means it's finally getting after the passer a little bit. That should help. No one has been able to run on Georgia all that well, particularly late in the season.

I do think this is a bit of a tale of two teams. Earlier in the year, this Georgia team was constantly in these close ballgames, one of them being against Ole Miss, where the Rebels scored in their first five possessions. Then, Georgia figured something out, and that thing was defense. It went back to being Georgia on defense. Now, it's rushing the quarterback, stopping the run and it's incredibly difficult to score points on Georgia. This is a great football team. This is a much better football team than the team that beat Ole Miss earlier in the year.

Kirby Smart's Georgia defense has been one of the best in the nation as of late, with the Bulldogs allowing 10 points or fewer in each of their last 10 games. (Photo by Jeffrey Vest/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

I don't know if I can say that about Ole Miss. It lost its playcaller. Kiffin is not there. Part of the reason why it scored on five straight possessions was Kiffin. You take that away, I don't love it. If you go back to COVID, 2020, Georgia has lost two games to teams not named Alabama. One was to Ole Miss last year with Kiffin calling plays, and the other was Notre Dame last year in the CFP.

Like Oregon, Georgia feels like its season begins now. This is why Georgia plays, to possibly win a national championship. I think Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and running back Kewan Lacy are going to have to go off if the Rebels are going to win this game. I just don't think they can do that against this Georgia defense that's on a mission. This Georgia team can absolutely win a national championship. 

I think Georgia wins and wins handily. It gets a lead early, and you'll see it set in on the Ole Miss sideline. 

Pick: Georgia 42, Ole Miss 27 (Georgia -6.5)

Joel Klatt is FOX Sports' lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast "The Joel Klatt Show." Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to "The Joel Klatt Show" on YouTube.

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