Big Picture: How One Unlucky Play vs. Seattle Altered Rams QB Matthew Stafford’s Legacy

Lumen Field (Seattle) — Sean McVay called the play a "fortuitous bust" in Seattle's coverage. At first, Matthew Stafford refused to talk about it, but he later called it "a mishap" where the Seahawks "lucked into" double covering the right guy, running back Kyren Williams, on the Rams’ most important offensive play of the NFC Championship Game.

In a contest that was defined by high-level execution — and high-level coaching — it almost doesn’t make sense that an accident determined who advanced to the Super Bowl. But that’s what it seemed like. That accident led to the Seahawks’ 31-27 win.

On the Rams’ final meaningful drive, Stafford dropped back on fourth-and-4 from the 6-yard line. The savvy quarterback knew the ins and outs of the Seattle defense, and he seemed to identify that the best option on the play would be Williams, who would leak out into the flat near the first-down marker and the end-zone line. 

Stafford must not have believed what he was seeing: Williams was double-covered.

"They kind of lucked into having two guys peel on Kyren right there," McVay said at a postgame press conference. "I know that can't be part of their design."

Seahawks safety Julian Love was there by design. DeMarcus Lawrence? He was also there — for reasons no one can explain. I couldn’t find the Pro Bowl defensive end in the Seahawks’ locker room after the game. But two other Seattle defenders confirmed what McVay saw. Hunched over my phone, one defender said: "D-Law was tripping."

Another said: "D-Law shouldn’t have ran with it. But we won."

The Seahawks certainly did. And as far as Stafford’s legacy goes, that might be all that matters.

The 17-year veteran went 22-of-35 for 374 yards and three touchdowns. He is the first quarterback to finish with 370 or more passing yards, throw three or more touchdown passes, average 10.00 or more yards per pass attempt, have zero turnovers, take no more than one sack — and yet still lose, according to OptaStats.

And in that sense, Stafford looked like a tragic figure — Paris of Troy.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford walked off the field after losing the NFC Championship Game at Lumen Field with a bloody hand and an uncertain future. (Eric Thayer / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

Stafford was also 0-for-7 passing on third- and fourth-down throws, the first time in his career he's failed to complete a pass in such situations, per ESPN Research. The crucial end-of-game, red-zone fourth down might have been an unhappy accident. But all the others? Well, it adds up to a bigger sample size. 

But then, of course, even that requires further context: Stafford was throwing into tight windows on 28.6% of his passes and he still completed 8.2% over expected, per Next Gen Stats. He also had an average depth of target of 12.6 yards. 

As far as game plans go, the degree of difficulty was through the roof for Stafford.

There was a lot to unpack from his performance. There is a lot to unpack from his career.

Some guys have all the luck. Stafford isn’t one of them. The Lions ended up with a stroke of luck when they snagged the No. 1 pick in 2009 and landed the former Georgia quarterback. He toiled — mostly in irrelevance — in Detroit for 12 years, which only adds to the magnitude of his Super Bowl LVI win with Los Angeles. He did it in his first season with the Rams, which left us all wondering how many he could’ve won with a better-run organization. 

But because Stafford doesn’t seem to have all the luck, we’ll do a lot of wondering: What if?

This might also not be Stafford’s last shot at a Super Bowl. After the game, McVay bristled at the question that his QB might not be back.

"If he still wants to play," McVay said at the podium. "The hell kinda question is that?"

But Stafford turns 38 the day before the Super Bowl, and this might’ve also been his last, best chance to get back there. The NFC West is crowded, and as terrific as Stafford and McVay are, you never know what the next season will bring. So when trying to make sense of how special Stafford is and was, there will be so much nuance to weigh his accomplishments against his unique adversities.

Without that nuance, the discussion will be that Stafford failed to make it to the Super Bowl and win it a second time. It’s the cruel, bottom-line business when it comes to legacy and greatness — two ethereal entities that you can trace to a very tactile question: How many Lombardi Trophies did he raise? 

One.

That’s a number that Dan Marino would envy. Jim Kelly and Josh Allen, too. But there are 13 other QBs who have more. And there are 21 QBs who have also won exactly one. That group includes Brett Favre, Joe Namath, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

That’s great company.

Stafford celebrates the Rams' Super Bowl championship in front of the Coliseum in 2022. (Wally Skalij/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)

And so, this isn’t to tear down what Stafford has achieved so far in his career. There’s a clear case for him to make the Hall of Fame.

Stafford remains one of the headiest players to ever play quarterback in the NFL. He remains one of the most talented pure passers. But it would be hard to find anyone putting him on a Mount Rushmore or listing him on the top five for greatest — or even most talented. 

Stafford will fall into the category as one of the best players of his generation, but not one who defined his generation. And again, that comes back to the Rams' heartbreaking loss in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday night. A win would’ve gone a long way in boosting Stafford’s legacy. 

In L.A., Stafford has been dominant in ways that are reminiscent of Tom Brady’s stint with the Buccaneers. It’s just that Stafford never got his stint with the Patriots. 

Some guys are downright unlucky. Some guys have all the luck. Some guys make their luck. 

Which one is Stafford? At different stages in his career, he’s been all of them. That’s a nebulous place when it comes to establishing legacy.

So if Stafford wants to finish in that third category, he’ll need one more Super Bowl.

Will that entice him back in 2026?