A top Democratic pollster warned Americans not to put too much stock in the polls coming out of New Hampshire in the days ahead of the Granite State's first-in-the-nation primary on Tuesday.
"This is not to knock the polls that are happening in New Hampshire," said Chris Anderson, founder and president of Beacon Research on Fox Nation's "What Are the Odds?" on Friday. "But I don't trust New Hampshire polling leading up to the primary."
Anderson has been the Democratic partner conducting the Fox News Poll since 2008 and he serves on the Fox News election night decision team.
CNN and the University of New Hampshire released a survey on Monday, showing Sen. Bernie Sanders I-Vt., leading the pack with 29 percent, followed by former South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 22 percent, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts., and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota in a distant third and fourth, respectively.
"It's one of the most unpredictable weeks in the political cycle," said Anderson, ticking off a list of factors that may throw off the polling in New Hampshire.
"For one, it's a small state, small electorate," he observed. "People stop answering their phones because they're getting called so much -- response rates plummet."
A low response rate indicates that more people than expected are opting not to talk to pollsters. This may increase the likelihood of error in the polling results, whereas a higher response rate would decrease that likelihood, according to the non-partisan Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found that low response rates increase the costs of conducting surveys and may force, "survey organizations to make trade-offs in their studies, such as reducing sample size, extending field periods or reducing quality in other ways in order to shift resources to the interviewing effort."
"It's also an open primary," Anderson continued, pointing out that unaffiliated voters are allowed to participate in the primary of their choice in New Hampshire.
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"You don't know who is going to show up," he explained, "Republicans can show up. Independents can show up. Democrats can show up."
Uncertainty over the political ideology of primary voters is another complicating factor for polling organizations, who attempt to create an accurate model of the anticipated electorate on Election Day.
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"And they decide late," Anderson concluded. "Sometimes people like to say, 'Well, why can't we figure out where this is going?' The reason is New Hampshire voters don't feel any need to necessarily make up their minds until they walk into the voting booth on Tuesday.
"It's very fluid," he said. "If we don't have a surprise... I'll be surprised."
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