Arnon Mishkin: Biden had a 'bad showing' in Iowa, but 'dodged a bullet' with reporting delay

Fox News Decision Desk Director Arnon Mishkin told "Special Report with Bret Baier" Tuesday that he still does not have enough information to project a winner in Monday's Iowa Democratic caucuses.

"When it comes to calculating state delegate equivalents, much like when it comes to calculating the Electoral College in a presidential election, the more moderate candidate or one of the more moderate candidates, [Pete] Buttigieg, was able to pull out and appears to be in the lead right now," Mishkin said. "... Whether or not that holds up, we don't know. But it's the difference is not yet large enough to be able to make a call."

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With 62 percent of Iowa precincts reporting, Buttigieg had won 26.9 percent of State Delegate Equivalents, used to determine how many delegates to the Democratic National Convention each candidate receives. Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., was a close second with 25.1 percent, followed by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., (18.3 percent) and former Vice President Joe Biden (15.6 percent).

An Associated Press tally allocated Buttigieg and Sanders 10 delegates each to this summer's Democratic convention in Milwaukee, with Warren being allocated four delegates. The allocation of the remainder of Iowa's 41 delegates could not immediately be determined.

The Iowa Democratic Party released the partial results late Tuesday afternoon following a massive delay linked to technical breakdowns. It was still not clear when the party would release the complete vote totals.

Mishkin told host Bret Baier that Biden's lackluster performance largely escaped notice Monday night due to the breakdown in reporting the results.

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"This is clearly a bad showing for Joe Biden based on the vote we've seen so far. I would argue he dodged a bullet in that this data did not come out until today," Mishkin said. "So he got on a plane to New Hampshire. And to a certain extent, this story is not going to be as widely covered as it would have been had the data come out yesterday."

"But I'd say all fingers point to what happens in New Hampshire," Mishkin added. "And if Biden has a similar showing in New Hampshire, that's a very challenging position for him to be in."

Fox News' Judson Berger and Gregg Re contributed to this report.