Sky vs Mercury betting preview: Why the over 166.5 looks like the play in this WNBA matchup

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The WNBA season has been in session for about a week, so it is far too early to make assumptions about teams. That doesn’t mean we won’t make them; it's just too early to really believe it. I lost my first WNBA bet this season, so I’m hoping to avenge that loss here as the Sky take on the Mercury.

The Chicago Sky are one of the most poorly run franchises in basketball. They have had some great names on their team and only one championship to show for it.

Phoenix Mercury forward DeWanna Bonner shoots over Indiana Fever guard Aerial Powers in the first half at PHX Arena. (Rick Scuteri/Imagn Images)

There really isn’t a clear indication of what is wrong with the franchise, but they’ve never been able to retain their talent. Aside from Kamilla Cardoso, I can’t name a player on this team that they’ve actually drafted. They just seem to get good players and then show them the door.

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Even though they've had questionable front office decisions, they seem to have put together a solid team for this season – something I didn’t expect before the season started.

They are 2-0, which is too early to really say they are a good team. I also want to reserve judgment until they face a team with a longer history than last year. The Portland Tempo played their first-ever game against the Sky, and Golden State was good last year, but still is in just their second season of existence.

The Phoenix Mercury are actually considered one of the best franchises in the league. I’m sure there are issues that people have reported, but for the most part, they have good facilities, and people want to play for their team. They made it all the way to the WNBA Finals last season before falling to the Las Vegas Aces. This year, they are looking to restart that journey and see if they can win the last game of the year.

Phoenix Mercury guard Kahleah Copper dribbles the ball in the second half at CareFirst Arena in Washington, D.C., on July 27, 2025. (Emily Faith Morgan-Imagn Images)

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It will need to come with some better play than they’ve shown through three games this year. They are just 1-2 for the year with a 0-1 home record. The lone win was a blowout victory over the Aces (a clear revenge game if we’ve ever seen one). Then they lost the next two games against Golden State and Minnesota. Losing to the Lynx wouldn’t be a problem, but they didn’t have Napheesa Collier, who still has an ankle injury.

I expect the Mercury to make some adjustments for this game. They haven’t looked very crisp to begin the year, but they’ve been strong on offense, averaging 87 points per game.

The Sky are going to keep relying on their offense to do just enough and their defense to lock in. The Sky do have an edge on the interior, so they can get buckets fairly easily down low. I like the over 166.5 in this game.

Chicago Sky guard Skylar Diggins chases the ball during the fourth quarter against the Golden State Valkyries at Chase Center in San Francisco, Calif., on May 13, 2026. (Bob Kupbens/Imagn Images)

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I also think it is worth betting on Kahleah Copper to go over her point total. Copper had two rough games before she broke out in the last game. Now she has the same sight lines and can attack the bigs from the Sky with her athleticism. Since going to Phoenix, she has scored 29, 7, 16, 25 and 28 points in five games against them.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024