With the U.S. job market healing and the population aging, only 85,000 new jobs a month are needed to keep the unemployment rate steady, acccording to a new analysis from economists at Goldman Sachs.
The bank's estimate aligns with the view of central bankers at the Federal Reserve, who have downplayed recent weak jobs reports on the grounds that they have been strong enough to keep the labor market moving in the right direction.
Goldman Sach's analysis is based on Census projections for population growth and estimates for labor force participation, which is on a long-term downward trend largely because of the retiring Baby Boom generation.
Previously, the bank had reckoned that about 145,000 new payroll jobs were needed each month to keep the unemployment rate headed down. Now, it sees the key number as 85,000, or between 125,000 and 45,000, depending on what happens to labor force participation.