N. Korea Political Transition Emerging as Key U.S. Concern

WASHINGTON - The Barack Obama administration has concluded that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il, still recovering from an August stroke, has initiated a political transition inside his reclusive state in which his brother-in-law and third son are emerging as key players in a newly assertive power structure.

This political shift in Pyongyang, senior U.S. officials say, has contributed to North Korea practicing an increasingly aggressive foreign policy. North Korea withdrew from diplomacy aimed at ending its nuclear-weapons program shortly after Kim's believed stroke. And on April 5, the nation test-fired a three-stage rocket, underlining concerns that North Korea is trying to develop a ballistic missile that can carry nuclear warheads.

Leading U.S. officials are now publicly voicing their belief that Pyongyang will conduct its second nuclear test in the coming months.

U.S. officials say Washington hasn't faced such uncertainty in North Korea in 15 years, when Kim Jong Il succeeded his father following a fatal heart attack. But even then, Washington at least had a clear sense of the transition line as Kim Il Sung had clearly anointed his son. Today, say current and former U.S. officials, the exact succession line remains unclear and Pyongyang appears to be reverting to a hard line on national security issues as the North Korean elite jockeys for power.

"We don't know if it's a new leadership right now, but they're clearly looking at contingencies," said a top U.S. official working on North Korea. "It complicates how they view the world."

The Obama administration has been focused on the deteriorating security situation in Pakistan and Afghanistan since taking office, as well as Iran's continued efforts to develop nuclear technologies. But the uncertainties about Pyongyang's political transition, U.S. officials say, are emerging as a key concern.

So far, the Obama administration has responded cautiously to North Korea's moves on the nuclear issue and its test-launch last month of a multi-stage rocket, in part, because of concerns about Pyongyang's political instability. Senior U.S. officials stress that they remain open to holding bilateral talks with North Korea. But they are also developing mechanisms to further undercut North Korea's economy, and particularly its weapons trade, if Kim doesn't come back to the negotiating table.

"It's very clear that the North Koreans want to pick a fight," said Gary Samore, President Obama's coordinator for weapons of mass destruction policy, this month. "They want to kill the six-party talks" focused on Pyongyang's nuclear program.

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