Astros picked to beat Mariners as Luis Castillo's struggles continue with a 6.57 ERA this season

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Sometimes you have divisions in baseball that have everyone looking like juggernauts. Other times, they look like complete disasters. I personally think they should do away with divisions and just do league play, that way the best teams all get in. I suppose that the three Wild Card spots help. We aren't here to debate the playoff and structure; we are here to cash a bet on the Mariners and Astros game.

Coming into this season, I felt that the biggest question about the Seattle Mariners would be how they could respond to falling short in the postseason. The other concern I had was the issue between Randy Arozarena and Cal Raleigh in the World Baseball Classic. The answer, for now, is that things are not going well. Perhaps there is no issue in the clubhouse with the players, but there certainly are issues on the field. The team is 21-23 overall and just 9-12 away from Seattle. For a lineup full of hitters, the team is hitting just .230.

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Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners bats in the second inning against the Houston Astros at Daikin Park in Houston, Texas, on May 11, 2026. (Tim Warner/Getty Images)

Their pitching has continued to excel, which is probably the lone reason the team hasn't been a complete disaster. As a team, they are pitching to a 3.63 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP. One guy who is hurting their numbers is today's starter, Luis Castillo. For the year, he is 0-4 with a 6.57 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. He has allowed four or more earned runs in three straight starts and four of his past six outings. The Mariners are just 2-6 in his eight starts this year. He hasn't received a ton of run support, but he certainly has put them behind in the games. To make matters worse, Astros hitters are batting .274 against him.

The Houston Astros are also struggling to find their footing this year. For a long time, it seemed like no matter who was on the field or roster, they were able to make it work. They would lose big name after big name and keep winning. Unfortunately for them, it seems not to be the case this season. They are just 17-27 for the year and 10-12 at home. Offensively, they are fine -- hitting .257 overall, but their pitching staff has been brutal with a collective ERA of 5.54 and a 1.58 WHIP.

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Houston Astros outfielder Yordan Alvarez hits a single against the Detroit Tigers in game one of the Wild Card round for the 2024 MLB playoffs at Minute Maid Park in Houston, Texas, on Oct. 1, 2024. (Troy Taormina-Imagn Images)

Their starter today is Mike Burrows, owner of a 2-4 record with a 5.04 ERA and a 1.48 WHIP. He has been worse on his home mound than on the road. At home, he has allowed 13 earned runs over 20.1 innings. He is coming off two strong starts in a row, both quality outings. This also includes his best start of the year with seven scoreless innings and just three hits allowed against the Reds. He faced Seattle earlier in the year and allowed 11 hits and six runs over six innings.

I have a player prop that I'm taking today -- Yordan Alvarez 2+ total bases. He has feasted on Castillo's pitching over the years, going 10-for-22 with four home runs and just two strikeouts. To me, that means he is putting the ball in play even if he isn't always getting a hit. I like his odds at -123, and normally I only play props at plus money. His home run number is +235, which is worth a sprinkle.

Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Luis Castillo throws a pitch to the Minnesota Twins in the first inning of a baseball game in Minneapolis on July 24, 2023. (Bruce Kluckhohn/AP)

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I am going to take the Astros today. I really don't like what I've seen out of Castillo. Burrows has some ugly numbers, but he may be locking in at the moment. Neither team is in great form, and the Astros finally broke their losing streak last night. I like the Astros at +108. Let's take them to win.

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024