Why Venezuela's oil reserve was a secondary consideration in US capture of Maduro
Texas Public Policy Foundation Vice President Chuck DeVore analyzes the role Venezuela's oil reserve may have had in the U.S. deciding to capture Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on 'The Will Cain Show.'
By arresting Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro in Caracas, President Donald Trump has again thrown America’s enemies — and his critics — into disarray. His continued bold defiance of convention and expectations reminds the world he will stop at nothing to protect America’s interests.
The fallout from the U.S. military attack on Venezuela and the extraction of one of the globe’s most dangerous drug lords is still spooling out, but there are three likely outcomes that are underappreciated, and may prove consequential.
1) First, the law enforcement and military operation could determine who succeeds President Trump as the GOP contender in 2028. The controversial event showcases an ongoing divide, not only in the MAGA movement, but also in the White House. Trump announced the arrest of Maduro flanked by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth. JD Vance was nowhere to be seen.
DEMOCRATS LABEL TRUMP'S VENEZUELA OPERATION AN 'IMPEACHABLE OFFENSE'
The vice president was at his Cincinnati home the day of the Venezuela operation. Did Vance’s absence indicate that isolationist MAGA types disapproved of the Venezuelan incursion? Some of the more vocal members of that group, like Candace Owens and Marjorie Taylor Greene, lambasted the attack. Could this be the issue that determines the Trump succession battle?
2) The arrest of Venezuela’s chief drug lord could trigger a massive political shift throughout Latin and South America. Cuba depends on Venezuela for oil and funds, providing tens of thousands of security personnel in exchange. Without that support, Cuba may fail, opening the door to a more pro-U.S. government. Colombia, currently led by hard-left President Gustavo Petro, whose administration has been tarred by scandal and low approval ratings, could move back to the right in next May’s election with inspiration from neighboring Venezuela. Just weeks ago, Chile elected José Antonio Kast, a hardline conservative who ran on secure borders and safer streets and won 58% of the vote over his Communist Party rival. Argentina made the move two years ago, electing right-wing Javier Milei, who has brought inflation down from 211% to 30% and produced the first budget surplus in 14 years.
Remember that former VP and "border czar" Kamala Harris pretended she would stem President Joe Biden’s illegal immigration surge by addressing what she called its "root causes." How ironic it would be if Trump’s engagement with governments to the south actually relieved the immigration flow to our country. It could happen.
3) Lending American expertise to Venezuela’s oil industry could help keep global oil production high and prices low, weakening Iran and Russia. The country, which boasts the largest proven oil reserves in the world, has seen production decline since the industry was nationalized under Hugo Chavez. In 2000, Venezuela produced roughly 3.2 million barrels per day; more recently, output dropped below 1 million barrels per day. According to the U.S. Energy Information Agency, "Much of Venezuela’s crude oil production capacity and infrastructure has suffered from prolonged lack of access to capital and regular maintenance."
Though it will take some time, renewed investment in Venezuela’s oilfields will boost production and, along with higher output from the U.S. and other sources, keep a lid on oil prices. Consequently, the White House will be free to crack down more strenuously on the sanctions imposed on Russian or Iranian oil exports, without pushing prices higher.
As the dramatic events in Caracas were reported, I cannot have been alone in wondering where JD Vance was. Not only was the vice president notably absent from the daylong TV coverage, which was dominated by President Trump, he was also curiously quiet on social media.
On Saturday, Vance issued but two comments on X; in the first, he seemed to defend the arrest of Maduro, posting that the dictator had been "offered multiple off ramps but…the drug trafficking must stop, and the stolen oil must be returned." He also hailed "the brave special operators who pulled off a truly impressive operation" and re-Xed Trump’s post announcing the raid.
In the second post, Vance defended the legality of the action, noting that Maduro had been indicted for narco-terrorism.
Meanwhile, Marco Rubio was front and center, both at the initial press conference and on the Sunday talk shows, providing persuasive explanations for why the White House chose to act, and reviewing the choices offered Maduro. He was clearly all-in with the mission.
Vance and Rubio are widely considered frontrunners for the 2028 nomination. The president has more than once, in response to reporters, failed to endorse his VP, instead lofting both candidates as highly qualified for the job. He has even suggested the two could share the ticket. Prediction markets recently gave Vance the lead, with 48% odds of winning the nomination, with Rubio only receiving 12%. Polling also shows Vance with a substantial advantage in New Hampshire, site of the first GOP primary.
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But we’re three years out, and voters are not as familiar with Rubio as they are with Vance. A recent Economist poll indicates a full 27% did not know enough about him to rate his record, compared to only 13% who failed to rate Vance. That gives Rubio an opportunity to brand himself as a Trump loyalist and ally. That he certainly did over the weekend as he aggressively argued the case for arresting Maduro.
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Rubio does not share Vance’s isolationist tendencies. He is a hawk, and as someone with Cuban heritage, he is especially well suited to lead the charge in pursuing American interests in Latin and South America. He will be extremely visible in attempting to restore order and install a more pro-American government in Caracas; should he succeed, his stock will rise. If Venezuela descends into anarchy, Rubio is at risk.
Democrats are reflexively outraged that Trump had the temerity to arrest Maduro. They look foolish, especially since a year ago President Biden offered a $25 million reward for information leading to the arrest of the indicted drug lord. It’s almost as though they are not serious people.
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