Greece's fate poses challenge to Merkel, but Germany's leader has plenty of credit in the bank

BERLIN – German Chancellor Angela Merkel has emerged undamaged from the global financial crisis, European bailouts, an astonishing u-turn on nuclear power and the crisis over Ukraine.

Now, with the future of efforts to resolve Greece's fiscal woes up in the air, the long-serving leader looks well-placed to emerge strong even if they fail.

Over a decade leading Europe's biggest economy, Merkel has enjoyed consistently high popularity and accumulated a store of political capital at home that would be the envy of most other leaders on the continent.

Her conservative party has a seemingly unassailable poll lead, no credible challenger is in sight and the German economy is strong. Her steady-handed, reassuring and risk-averse leadership style resonates with German voters and has earned her the nickname "Mutti," or Mama.

Merkel has said repeatedly that her aim is to keep Greece in the euro. But voters are unlikely to hold a failure of that effort against her "because she has owned this role of protector in the euro crisis for several years," said Peter Matuschek, the head of political and social research at Germany's Forsa polling agency.

"The majority have the impression that she's doing what she can, and if it doesn't work out it probably wasn't down to her," he said, with Greece's government widely viewed in Germany as the culprit for the standoff.

Merkel's knack for reassuring Germans that she has a confusing crisis under control dates back at least to 2008 when, amid the fallout from Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, she announced that the government was guaranteeing all private bank savings.

Since the eurozone debt crisis first flared in 2010, dragging Germany into a leadership role, she has kept up a delicate balancing act: helping struggling countries that accept tough budget cuts and reforms while convincing Germans she is defending their interests — and wallets.

It was the German leader who advocated bringing in the International Monetary Fund, with its experience as a tough taskmaster in international bailouts, to deal with Greece. But Merkel also has taken care to keep communications open with Greek leader Alexis Tsipras, an ideological adversary, as negotiations bogged down.

That pragmatic persistence has become a Merkel trademark. It also has been on show in the crisis over Russia's actions in Ukraine. She has won plaudits at home for tireless efforts to keep up dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin and prevent the conflict from escalating.

At the same time, she has kept the country largely behind economic sanctions against Russia despite their costs to German industry.

Merkel's slow-but-steady approach to policy — she has frequently said Europe's debt crisis must be tackled "step by step" — plays well at home. She told German lawmakers last week that every move on Greece has been and will be "very well-considered."

Her one major departure from that approach came in 2011, when she abruptly accelerated the shutdown of Germany's nuclear power plants following meltdowns at Japan's Fukushima plant. Her government had decided only a few months earlier to extend the plants' lives. The about-face initially unsettled supporters, but has helped in the long term by defusing a sensitive issue for her party.

If Greece and its creditors pull off a deal to avoid bankruptcy this time, Germany's Parliament will have to sign off.

One of the tougher audiences for yet more aid could be Merkel's own conservative Union bloc, where there's little appetite for further concessions to Tsipras' radical left-led government. Veteran Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who has sounded tougher on Greece than Merkel lately but has been reliably loyal, likely will be key to helping persuade lawmakers.

Merkel hasn't yet come close to losing any parliamentary vote on eurozone rescue measures, though 29 of her bloc's 311 lawmakers voted against a four-month extension to Greece's bailout in February — the biggest number yet.

She currently runs a "grand coalition" of Germany's biggest parties with the center-left Social Democrats that holds around four-fifths of the parliamentary seats. The country's next election isn't due until late 2017.

A political threat from further right has failed to gather steam. The upstart Alternative for Germany party, founded in 2013 on a platform of ending the euro in its current form, has increasingly focused on anti-immigration talk and has become mired in infighting.

So far, potential conservative rebels on Greece appear to be "the usual suspects," Matuschek said. While there is annoyance with Greece among conservative voters, "I think they will support the chancellor in case of doubt."

In February, there was support for extending Greece's rescue program even from the opposition Left Party, which has consistently accused Merkel of playing too hard.

Prominent Left Party lawmaker Sahra Wagenknecht blamed Merkel's government this week for a standstill in negotiations, accusing it of seeking "the unconditional surrender of the Greek government."

___

Geir Moulson has covered German politics since 2001.