Fox News Poll: Economic gloom, Trump ratings signal tough GOP midterm path

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Sen John Kennedy addresses GOP concerns ahead of midterms

Sen. John Kennedy, R-La., addresses GOP concerns ahead of the midterm elections, highlighting market momentum and President Donald Trump's gas price predictions on ‘The Big Weekend Show.’

The electorate’s economic pessimism is giving the Democratic Party an edge six months out from the November election. A new Fox News survey points to an environment conducive to a change in the majority party in the U.S. House, with negative ratings for both the president and the economy shaping the landscape.

About three-quarters of voters continue to give the economy negative ratings (73%), consistent with at least the last two years. In addition, 60% rate their personal financial situation negatively, and 70% say it feels like the economy is getting worse — up 15 points compared to 55% last April and matching a record high.

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There is a strong partisan aspect to these economic views, with three times as many Republicans as Democrats rating the economy positively and four times as many Republicans saying it feels like conditions are getting better. Yet that optimism has limits, as more than half of Republicans say economic conditions (56%) and their personal finances (52%) are bad.

"Setting aside actual economic conditions, polarization is so pervasive now that it’s difficult to imagine a turnaround that could convince Democrats that Trump’s policies are working," says Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who works with Democrat Chris Anderson on Fox News polls.

Overall, twice as many say President Trump’s policies are hurting (56%) rather than helping (28%) the economy. Among partisans, only Republicans think they are helping: 57% say so, and that climbs to 70% among MAGA Republicans but drops to 30% among non-MAGA Republicans.

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Pocketbook pressure remains high, with majorities calling prices for groceries (62%), gas (60%), healthcare (55%), and housing (52%) a "major" problem for their families. Gas is the standout, as the share calling those costs a "major" problem jumped to 60% — nearly double the 33% in September 2025 and bringing the number saying it’s a major or minor problem to 89%.

The largest number of voters, 43%, cite economic issues such as inflation (26%) and the economy generally (17%) as the most important issues facing the country today. Other issues rank significantly lower, with around 1 in 10 naming political leadership/corruption (13%), the war with Iran (11%), political divisions within the country (9%), and immigration (8%) as the top concern. Aside from the Iran war, these priorities are mostly unchanged since last year.

Democrats are more likely to cite inflation/economy (41%) and political leadership/corruption (22%), while Republicans prioritize inflation/economy (42%), immigration/border security (14%), and the Iran war (14%). 

When asked which political party would do a better job handling issues, the poll finds Republicans have the advantage on border security (+16 points), crime (+8), immigration (+8), and national security (+6). Democrats are favored on climate change (+29 points), healthcare (+21), abortion (+18), transgender issues (+13), inflation (+8 points), and foreign policy (+6). Neither party has a significant edge on handling the economy (D +4) or artificial intelligence (D +5).

Independents prefer Republicans more than Democrats on only 4 of the 12 issues tested, and back the Democratic candidate on the generic ballot question by a 57-41% margin. 

The poll shows if the election were today, 52% of voters say they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 47% the Republican. That’s a 5-point edge, within the poll’s margin of error. Democrats were up by 6 points in January (52-46).

"Although these results are good news for the Democrats, there are two important factors to keep in mind when looking at the generic ballot results," says Shaw. "First, because more of the Democratic vote is stacked in heavily Democratic districts, they probably need to win the national vote by 1-3 points to win a majority in the House. Second, poll results don’t become particularly predictive of the actual vote until late summer before the election."

At this point, more Democrats (68%) than Republicans (60%) say they are "extremely" motivated to vote this year. There’s a similar gap among 2024 voters, with more supporters of Kamala Harris (72%) than Donald Trump (59%) feeling motivated.

Meanwhile, voters say both the Democratic Party (61%) and the Republican Party (61%) are focused on the "wrong" issues these days. Independents are 10 points more critical of Republicans (76% wrong focus) than the Democratic Party (66% wrong).

When asked what one issue they want the party to talk about less, voters are most fatigued by cultural and identity issues, regardless of which party raises them. They say Democrats should stop talking about transgender and DEI (19%), Trump (16%), and ICE and border security (11%). For Republicans, voters want less focus on ICE and deportations (16%), Iran, Israel, and the war (10%), and culture wars/transgender issues (9%).

President Trump’s overall job rating stands at 42% approval, while 58% disapprove. Last month, it was 41-59%. The only time the president has seen a net positive job rating was soon after taking office the first time, when 48% approved and 47% disapproved in February 2017. His lowest rating ever was 38-57 in October 2017.

Some of the president’s highest approval comes from MAGA Republicans (96%), very conservative voters (85%), and Trump voters (83%), while some of the lowest approval comes from women under age 45 (28%), Black voters (19%), and Democrats (5%).

Approval of Trump among Catholics overall (51%) and White Catholics (57%) held steady or ticked up a couple points this month, despite the president’s back-and-forth about the Iran war with Pope Leo XIV.

Forty-six percent have a favorable view of First Lady Melania Trump. That makes her more popular than her husband by 6 points (40% favorable) and both the Democratic (42%) and Republican Parties (42%) by 4 points.

While Melania’s favorable rating is up 1 point compared to a year ago, her unfavorable rating has jumped 13 points — from 39% in April 2025 to 52% today. For the president, 60% have a negative view of him, up from 55% last year.

Poll-pourri

By a 4-point margin, more voters have a positive view of ICE (42% favorable) than sanctuary cities (38%).

Views on border security have shifted sharply, with 45% now saying conditions are "about right," while 31% say they are not strict enough and 23% too strict. That marks a significant change since 2023, when 7 in 10 said border security was not strict enough.

Since 2023, the number of Democrats saying "too strict" jumped from 17% to 41% today, while Republicans saying "not strict enough" dropped from 91% to 46% now.

Conducted April 17-20, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,001 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (116) and cellphones (635) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (250). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.