Liz Peek: Here's why Joe Biden could get very lucky in his first 100 days as president

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Lucky Joe Biden. COVID got him elected and a receding COVID gives him a good chance of being a successful president, in spite of himself.

A year ago, President Trump was a shoo-in for reelection; one betting group put the odds of Biden beating Trump at 5-1.

But that was before a once-in-a-lifetime virus ravaged the globe, killing millions and producing lockdowns everywhere which destroyed our full-employment economy.    

As grim as it is, Biden can thank the Wuhan virus for his election.

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Biden’s good luck continues today, as COVID cases appear to have peaked and are heading downward. Biden campaigned (to the extent he campaigned at all) on taming the virus, relying on "science" to squash the bug. As the COVID numbers improve, as they likely will in coming months, Biden will take credit, and his faithful cheerleaders in the liberal press will echo the claim.

As the coronavirus wanes, the lockdowns will recede and the economy will boom. Industry sectors that have been clobbered by COVID, like travel and entertainment, will revive. And Americans, relieved and released by the waning infection fear, will spend.

The savings rate is extraordinarily high, the "wealth effect" of elevated stock and home prices will kick in, and the Biden White House will celebrate growing jobs and wages.

Unless, of course, Biden screws up this revival through higher taxes and regulation. Already he’s stomping on oil and gas production, which employs hundreds of thousands of Americans. Remember President Obama’s warning that you should "never estimate Joe’s ability to f**k things up."

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The science suggests that by early or mid-summer, thanks to the growing number who have had the disease or been inoculated against it, we will reach "herd immunity." Barring the arrival of some new super-bug not prevented by the current round of vaccines, the virus will soon be sidelined as a major threat to the nation. Joe Biden will have had nothing to do with that much-hoped-for event.

In the U.S., reported COVID cases last week averaged 194,252 per day, down 21% from 245,365 a week earlier and 13% from the total two weeks before. Net new hospitalizations and net new ICU admissions have also turned lower, dropping into negative territory just after the start of the year. Both those measures, on a seven-day moving average, appear to have peaked in mid-November.

COVID deaths, tragically, recently posted a record high, but deaths trail cases and hospitalizations, and should soon follow those indicators lower. One model (YYG) predicts that with accelerating immunizations now surpassing infections, we will achieve herd immunity by July or August. As more vaccines become available, that prediction could prove conservative.

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In the coming weeks, J&J’s vaccine will likely be approved, joining the Moderna and Pfizer products already available. J&J is promising to deliver at least 100 million doses of the one-shot medicine. An AstraZeneca vaccine is expected in the spring.

Biden’s good luck continues in that for the first time in our history, the mass media has become a cheerleader for the newly-installed president and has ceded its role as a watchdog on behalf of the American public. Trust in the media is at an all-time low for good reason. 

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Consequently, Democrats and their press lackeys will claim that Joe Biden conquered COVID. A great many Americans will believe them.

Biden is even now setting the table for those reports, warning the worst is yet to come and that dark days lie ahead. On January 22, he warned, "There’s nothing we can do to change the trajectory of the pandemic in the next several months." Let’s hope he doesn’t try.  

Throughout the campaign, Biden claimed to have a "plan" to free us from the malignant pandemic. The plan mostly called for actions that the Trump White House was already undertaking, like ramping up the delivery of protective gear for health workers. Even the Washington Post described Biden’s plan as "nothing revolutionary" and admitted that "the Trump administration said it was doing all of that." 

Biden did break with Trump’s approach by advocating mandatory mask-wearing, at a time when 85%-90% of the country was already donning face coverings.  

Biden also wanted a full-court press to find a vaccine. 

Thankfully, we didn’t have to wait for Joe’s coronation to have a shot. Not one but several vaccines were developed in record time, because Trump threw the massive resources of the federal government behind Operation Warp Speed, which eliminated regulatory roadblocks, provided needed funding and accelerated the testing and development of a safe product.

As a result, Joe Biden’s inauguration has roughly coincided with what is likely the all-time peak in the COVID pandemic.  

The ramifications of this prospect are enormous for the economy and the Biden administration. Improving COVID numbers will allow officials to reopen schools and businesses, a process just now beginning. 

In some Democratically-led regions, mayors and governors have started lifting restrictions even while COVID continues to rage.

Critics charge that the draconian measures, which caused enormous job losses, served little health purpose but were meant to hurt the Trump campaign.

Washington, D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser, for instance, recently revoked her ban on indoor dining in the city.

Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, author of severe COVID restrictions, has announced restaurants can resume indoor service in her state, too.

Andrew Cuomo, another champion of job-killing lockdowns, called to reopen New York in his State of the State speech, saying the cost of the shutdown is suddenly "too high." 

California and New York, both suffering severe closures, together account for 20% of the nation’s GDP. Imagine what lifting restrictions in those two states will mean for U.S. growth.

For the economy, too, Biden is setting expectations low, claiming recently "The [economic] crisis is only deepening. It’s not getting better."

Happily for Biden, it's safe to assume that the economy will soon surge, and the liberal media will give him credit for the turnaround.

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In reality, all he has to do is wait.

Lucky Joe.

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