Troy Balderson claims victory in Ohio special election
Ohio Republican thanks family, supporters and President Trump after tight race for Ohio's 12th Congressional District; pledges to keep America great.
History is filled with great rematches. Muhammad Ali vs. Joe Frazier in the Thrilla in Manila. The L.A. Lakers against the Detroit Pistons in two consecutive NBA Finals. The original Subway Series games pitting the New York Yankees against Jackie Robinson and the Brooklyn Dodgers.
Now, there's Troy Balderson against Danny O’Connor.
Perhaps it doesn't stack up against those other grudge matches, but the rematch between these rivals for a fiercely contested Ohio House seat is one of the hottest tickets in November's midterm elections.
The two political pugilists went head-to-head back in August for a special election, with Republican Balderson narrowly defeating Democrat O’Connor to finish the term of former GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi in Ohio’s 12th Congressional District. The race took nearly three weeks to call and ultimately was decided by a margin of less than 1 percent.
But with Tiberi’s original term ending in January, the newly sworn-in Rep. Balderson must once again face O’Connor for control of the 12th District seat.
With the special election ending just weeks ago, both candidates remain primed for the rigors of campaign life. And it could be another nail-biter.
“It looks split right now, and it’s going to be a close race,” Daniel Birdsong, a political science lecturer at the University of Dayton, told Fox News. “The district has been Republican for such a long time, but O’Connor was able to bring in a lot of support for the special election. It’s going to come down to turnout.”
Besides Ohio’s 12th District being a traditional GOP stronghold, Balderson has the incumbent's advantage – however short-term. According to an analysis by Open Secrets, the reelection rate for members of Congress has been as high as 98 percent in recent history and has rarely dipped below 90 percent.
Yet Balderson's August win presents challenges for him. While Balderson has had to juggle restarting his campaign with the demands of traveling to Washington and congressional duties, O’Connor has been able to continue campaigning as if the special election never happened.
“He will have more time to go to events, raise money and drum up support,” Birdsong said.
'It looks split right now and it’s going to be a close race...It’s going to come down to turnout.'
O’Connor also has had a fundraising advantage on the incumbent.
According to reports that covered campaign fundraising for the two candidates from July 19 through Aug. 27, O'Connor brought in almost $4 million, including more than $1.4 million he got after losing the election by just over 1,600 votes. Balderson raised just slightly more than $500,000.
O’Connor’s team has stated that most of the funds came from small donations by Ohio residents, but Balderson disputes that.
“Liberal out of state special interest groups are continuing to prop up Danny O'Connor's campaign in their efforts to retake the House and put Nancy Pelosi in the Speaker's chair," said a statement Balderson released through his campaign before his own report was filed. "While O'Connor's campaign has raised 90 percent of his campaign funds from liberal out of starters, our campaign is funded by hard-working Ohioans who want someone who will fight for them and their middle class values."
Neither of the candidates appears to be telling the full story.
About $180,000 in donations to Balderson have come from political action committees tied to figures like President Trump and House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif. O’Connor, meanwhile, has received $5,000 each from organizations associated with autoworkers, boilermakers and firefighters unions, along with a $5,000 donation from a committee associated with Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and $2,000 from the campaign committee of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass.
With the incumbent advantage narrowly going to Balderson and the fundraising advantage to O’Connor, experts say this rematch will all come down to turnout.
“We’re looking at an engaged electorate right now who are very familiar with the negative stories coming out about Trump and the GOP, so that will drive support for Democratic candidates,” Birdsong said. “The district has been fairly safe for the GOP in the past, but both parties are going to need to find people to come out and to flip other voters to their side.”
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