It's a boy! It's a boy! The Duke and Duchess of Sussex welcomed a baby boy into the world Monday morning and I couldn't be more excited – mostly because the baby is healthy, but if I'm completely honest it’s also because I get to say “told you so,” which I won't say, but I just did…!
A few weeks ago, I wrote an op-ed for Fox News Opinion using a mixture of statistics, common sense, and a little old wives’ intuition to predict that Baby Sussex would indeed be a boy, and telling readers that if you're the betting kind, then you should place your money on that.
The bookies may have been conflicted, but we used a bit of common sense to determine that, while there were reports that Meghan had announced the baby’s sex to her friends and family at her baby shower in New York City, this was quite unlikely to be true. Given the leaks and gossip coming out of Kensington Palace alone, it would be very surprising for Meghan to have released such a big secret to so many people.
As Monday’s news comes to a welcoming and very excited public, the next big prediction will be close on its heels: What is the baby’s name going to be?
We then took some science, starting with the initial chance that the baby would be a boy – which is 51 percent, not the 50/50 that most assume. We paired this with the fact that Meghan seemed not to suffer extreme morning sickness, swaying the odds further in favor of a boy.
How did we come to that conclusion? The Palace was silent when Meghan pulled out of events for being too tired, especially early in her pregnancy (which she was highly criticized for). But when Kate had a similar situation, the Palace was quick to explain her absence as due to a hospitalization for extreme morning sickness. Had this been the case for Meghan, I’m sure they would have supported her in the same manner. Extreme morning sickness points to a girl, so this is another reason why I concluded that the baby would more likely be a boy.
Add in the fact that scientific studies use stress and family situations to predict a baby’s sex – for a woman with a physically-demanding manual job or a woman having a baby on her own, without the father in the picture, odds favor a girl – neither of these being the case when it comes to Meghan.
All of the above pointed us toward Baby Sussex being a boy. And as Monday’s news comes to a welcoming and very excited public, the next big prediction will be close on its heels: What is the baby’s name going to be?
Unfortunately, I am a statistician, and the predictions on baby names don’t tend to come with statistical models, so I will be just as curious and excited to find out the outcome as anyone else. Now, while those in glass houses shall not cast stones, let’s just hope it isn’t in line with the new age celebrity baby names (“Celery” comes to mind).
Still, as a statistician, I can’t help but make one more prediction: the next royal sibling for Baby Sussex will be … a boy.