David Avella: Joe Biden is going to lose, early and big

Former Vice President Joe Biden will not be our next president. Joe Biden will not even be the Democratic nominee. Joe Biden is going to lose. He's going to lose early, and lose big.

Let us start with the fact that top Internet and social media search topics are "Creepy Joe" and "Joe Biden age." This is not launching a campaign from a position of strength. Despite his best efforts to inoculate himself from political mistakes, Joe Biden is simply the wrong guy in the wrong year.

The natural argument for Biden is he would be an extension of the Obama presidency. After all, he did serve two terms as President Obama’s vice president. It was a good argument for 2016. It is a non-starter in 2020, plus President Obama politely, because Biden allegedly asked, will not be endorsing his old running mate. As an aside, a resourceful fact checker might want to evaluate whether this is a “false or misleading” claim.

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It is not surprising that President Obama is not endorsing his chosen vice president and, according to recent media accounts, urged him not to run in 2016. Let us remember that President Obama had to endorse Biden in 2012 to calm Democratic jitters about keeping him as vice president because of his verbal gaffes. Once Biden starts talking, he invariably goes on until he says something that is offensive or embarrassing. And right now, there is no easier group to offend and embarrass than Democratic primary voters.

Absent his old running mate, critics will quickly turn to the laundry list of mistakes Biden has made during his more than 45 years in elected office. The first is how he handled the 1991 allegations Anita Hill made against Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas, which Biden tried to apologize for prior to launching his campaign.

Biden and the other declared Democratic candidates have yet to turn their fire on each other. Once they do, you can guarantee that the former vice president will be the first candidate attacked.

Next, you will be reminded that Biden’s record includes fighting to prevent school busing to achieve desegregation. He even “colluded” with the late Jesse Helms on this one. And then there is Robert E. Lee. As statues and memorials to Confederate leaders are being removed from public spaces, how many Democrats will agree that Biden is in line with the progressive wing of his party when he proudly voted to restore the citizenship of Robert E. Lee?

Biden is four years too late. The 2016 election offered Biden the opportunity to make the case that it would be a good idea to continue what the Obama administration had begun. Looking at history, you could even conclude that this would have been especially true in a campaign against Donald Trump.

Again, it is not 2016. Donald Trump won and is actually president, although many in the media and far left continue to deny any of this.

The old rules and adages may not have been rendered inoperative, but it is much harder to take them to the bank than in the past. In 2020, the Democrats, almost by definition, are working towards putting forward a candidate offering a sharp contrast to President Trump.

Democrats lose when they go with the establishment candidate. Former Presidents Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Barack Obama ran as outsiders who up-ended their party’s power structure by defeating the party insiders’ candidate(s). If you are the perceived flag-bearer of the Democratic establishment and are compared to the creepy uncle with a problem for respecting personal space while you are also the candidate who is on record praising Robert E. Lee, how much more fodder can you give your Democratic primary opponents? For 2020 Democrats, it is hard to imagine them concluding this to be the sharp contrast to President Trump they will demand.

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When a candidate is the front-runner, he or she can sustain early hits, even a hiccup in the early nominating states. Biden and the other declared Democratic candidates have yet to turn their fire on each other. Once they do, you can guarantee that the former vice president will be the first candidate attacked. It will get very personal and gloves-off nasty sooner rather than later.

What a front-runner cannot endure is a rapid evaporation of his or her support. This is what is in store for Joe Biden. He will be out of the race by the time the South Carolina primary votes are counted.

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