Ian Bremmer to CNN hosts on Iran situation: 'A win for Trump'
Raw video: Time Editor-at-Large Ian Bremmer discusses Iran's response to the assassination of General Soleimani with the hosts of 'New Day.'
Political scientist Ian Bremmer told CNN on Wednesday that Iran's retaliation was "wildly de-escalatory" and that President Trump effectively brought the rogue nation into a place where he could negotiate a nuclear deal of his own.
"Literally, the United States has killed the head of Iran's military in the Cabinet and the response has been, you know, virtually nothing," said Bremmer, editor at large for Time magazine.
"That doesn't mean that Iran is no longer a major antagonist of the United States in the region or that we've ended our fights ... No one should be taking victory laps here. But this is a win for Trump. And it's clear that it is," Bremmer added.
Bremmer founded the Eurasia Group, which provides risk analysis on how political developments impact global investment.
"Iran is weaker today than it was when Trump became president," he told CNN.
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According to Bremmer, Iran's relatively minor retaliation showed the blustery nation wasn't willing to go beyond the bare minimum of a military engagement with the U.S.
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"Their response has been the minimum possible military engagement against the Americans. That is wildly de-escalatory," he said.
"It's also been supported by a statement by the foreign minister saying we're going to escalate if you do anything about this. In other words, 'Please, let's now stop. We don't want war.' There's a real opportunity for diplomacy if Trump wants it and is capable of taking it."
According to Bremmer, Iran was defying former President Obama's nuclear deal only to the extent that they could provoke negotiations.
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"They are moving away from the nuclear deal but it's like if you get a speed limit 65, it's not like they're going 120," he said. "They're saying we'll go 75. Don't ticket us. We want to go back to the deal. But they're careful about their escalation."
President Trump announced on Wednesday that no casualties resulted from Iran's retaliatory attack on U.S. military bases in Iran. The attack came as Democrats criticized the president for dangerously escalating tensions by taking out one of Iran's top generals, Qassem Soleimani.
For Bremmer, killing Soleimani might have been a step too far but Trump had to respond in some way to Iranian provocations.
Bremmer also pushed back on the idea that Trump was trying to "wag the dog," a phrase referring to presidents creating a distraction from other political events. Some on the left accused Trump of ordering last week's strike on Soleimani to distract from impeachment.
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"He wasn't about wagging the dog. If he's doing anything, he's likely to pet the dog," Bremmer said. When CNN's Alisyn Camerota asked what that meant, Bremmer said: "That means he wants to come to deals and announce they're the best deals ever. That's what he tried to do with the Taliban on the 9/11 anniversary with Camp David."
Bremmer predicted that Trump would try to attain a new Iranian nuclear deal to replace Obama's — this time, without a provision ending the agreement after a certain time frame.
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"It's also something that would probably include some level of inspections or something around Iranian ballistic missile development, for example," he said. "So it would be a little broader than what Kerry and Obama got done. The U.S. would be negotiating that from a position of strength."
Bremmer added that if Trump "wants that opportunity, he certainly has a window for it."
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