Iran’s surprise missile attack signals ‘more dangerous’ regime, expert warns
FDD’s Behnam Ben Taleblu says Tehran is becoming more risk-tolerant and warns the U.S. must restore deterrence or face additional missile and drone attacks.
The United States resumed airstrikes inside Iran Wednesday night in retaliation for Tehran’s attempted surprise ballistic-missile attack on American forces, as an Iran expert warned that the regime has become increasingly willing to test Washington despite its weakened military capabilities.
"The strikes are a powerful response to yesterday’s attempted Iranian attack on U.S. forces based in the Middle East," U.S. Central Command said as the new operation began, according to The Associated Press.
The renewed strikes marked the first U.S. attacks inside Iran since President Donald Trump paused the bombing campaign Friday after 13 consecutive nights to allow diplomacy another chance. Iran’s missile launch shattered that brief pause and returned the conflict to direct exchanges between Washington and Tehran.
Trump had signaled the retaliation earlier Wednesday, saying the United States would hit Iran "very hard."
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Map shows U.S. bases and assets in the Mideast. (Fox News)
Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the surprise nature of Iran’s attack reflected a significant shift in Tehran’s strategy.
"What makes this attack different is that it’s basically a surprise attack," Taleblu told Fox News Digital. "This is the Islamic Republic matching its deeds with its words," he said. "That means a more risk-tolerant, more confident, perhaps less capable, but more dangerous Iran in the Middle East."
U.S. Central Command said the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched multiple ballistic missiles from Iran at U.S. forces in the region at approximately 5:45 p.m. Eastern Time Tuesday. All were intercepted, and no casualties or damage were immediately reported.
Trump later vowed a forceful response, telling Fox News chief foreign correspondent Trey Yingst that the United States would be "hitting them hard" and that Iran was "going to get a beating." "We're going to beat the f---ing s--- out of them," Trump said.
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Based on the latest targets, Iran has been signaling that it is prepared to damage water, energy and transport infrastructure elsewhere in the region, a senior UN official explained. (European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-2/Handout via Reuters )
But Ben Taleblu warned that successful interceptions alone may not restore deterrence. He argued that Tehran has repeatedly learned that it can fire on American forces, absorb a U.S. response and then attempt to dictate when the exchange ends.
"The dangerous lesson for America here is that you have to treat every single Iranian missile attack, whether it was successful or not, as being successful," he said. "You can’t over-rely on technology because ultimately this is not a technological problem. This is a political problem."
The attack came as the nearly five-month conflict threatened to widen across the region.
Iran said it also targeted commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, while the United States and Saudi Arabia jointly struck Iran-backed armed groups in Iraq following drone attacks on Saudi oil facilities. The operation marked the first time Riyadh publicly acknowledged participating in strikes alongside Washington, potentially opening a new front in the confrontation, Reuters reported.
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President Donald Trump monitors U.S. military operations in Iran following an Israeli strike in Tehran Feb. 28, 2026. (@WhiteHouse/X)
The renewed fighting also threatens already-fragile negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz. Iran rejected an Omani proposal for joint regional management of the waterway, insisting on broader control over shipping routes through the strait.
The attack followed a far deadlier Iranian attack on U.S. forces in Jordan earlier in July. That strike hit housing used by American troops at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base, killing two U.S. service members and wounding several others.
The United States subsequently struck Iranian targets, but Ben Taleblu argued that Tehran continues to believe it can absorb retaliation, fire back and dictate when each cycle of fighting ends.
He said the United States must respond while preparing for another Iranian counterattack, warning that allowing Tehran to claim it had "closed the round" after retaliating would reinforce the regime’s belief that it can dictate the pace of the conflict.
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Marandi claimed that the IRCG introduced a new missile to the war. (Morteza Nikoubazl/NurPhoto via Getty Images)
"The U.S. certainly does need to respond, and President Trump indeed has promised to respond with some very colorful language, but it has to be prepared for the Iranian response," he said.
