Business economists believe that the Federal Reserve's long-awaited move to start reducing its massive bond holdings will push long-term bond rates up, but most think the impact will be fairly modest.

A National Association for Business Economics survey released Monday found that 41 percent of economists surveyed expected rates on the 10-year Treasury note will rise by just one-half percentage point or less.

About one-fourth saw an increase of three-fourths of a percentage point to a full percentage point in the 10-year note. Only 11 percent saw rates going up more than 1 percentage point over the extended period that the Fed is reducing its holdings.

The policy survey summarized the responses of 184 of the association's members surveyed from July 18 to Aug. 2.