The playoff drivers knew that winning Sunday at Kansas Speedway, typically the least chaotic of the three tracks in the second round of the NASCAR playoffs, would relieve a great deal of stress.
All 12 of the playoff drivers still have that stress as non-playoff driver Ross Chastain captured the victory at Kansas.
So all 12 will likely need some good fortune as they head to Talladega Superspeedway this weekend and then end the playoff round the following week at the Charlotte road course.
NASCAR's version of the playoffs — where those outside the playoffs still compete each week as well — runs over the final 10 races of the season. The first three rounds consist of three races, and the four winless drivers in the round lowest in points are eliminated, setting up four drivers who are eligible for the title in the season finale at Phoenix with the driver who finishes the best (they don't get stage points) crowned the champion.
In each round, the advancing drivers' point totals are reset (2000 in the first round, 3000 in the quarterfinal round, 4000 in the semifinal round, 5000 for the championship) with the playoff points they earned during the season added to their total except for the championship race.
The tracks:
- Opening round: Atlanta (winner-Joey Logano), Watkins Glen (winner-Chris Buescher, not a playoff driver), Bristol (winner-Kyle Larson). Advanced: Logano, Larson, Austin Cindric, Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Tyler Reddick, Alex Bowman and Daniel Suarez. Eliminated from playoff contention: Ty Gibbs, Martin Truex Jr., Brad Keselowski and Harrison Burton.
- Quarterfinal round: Kansas (winner-Ross Chastain, not a playoff driver), Talladega (2.66-mile superspeedway), Charlotte (road course).
- Semifinal round: Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Homestead (1.5-mile oval), Martinsville (0.526-mile oval).
- Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval).
Here's my playoff rankings based on best shot to win the title to the worst shot.
1. Christopher Bell (Last Week: 1)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota
Position: 3rd, +28 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 38th
Bell should be leading the standings after Kansas but hit the wall twice after his car got loose battling among the leaders. But he still has been the most consistently fast car and his victories at Phoenix and New Hampshire earlier this year still make him a favorite as long as he gets to the final round. He doesn’t love superspeedway racing, but even if he has a bad weekend at Talladega, he has run well at the Charlotte road course, including one win there.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
2. Kyle Larson (LW: 2)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: 4th, +18 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 21st
The next two tracks aren’t great for Larson, so this could be a battle for him to get out of this round. He has just three top-10s in 19 Talladega starts and his average finish there is 22.8 – his worst for any track on the circuit where he has raced more than once. He does have one win at the Charlotte road course, with that finish his only top-10 at the track.
Prediction: Champion (no change)
3. William Byron (LW: 7)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: 1st, +34 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 7th
Byron’s second-place finish at Kansas was huge because he needed to show he hadn’t lost the speed from earlier in the year. He has top-10s in his last two Talladega starts (a seventh and a second) and a second at the Charlotte road course last year. Those finishes came when he had no pressure after winning the race at Texas to open the round.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
4. Chase Elliott (LW: 3)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: 7th, +4 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 15th
Elliott only has a four-point cushion after engine woes made it an uphill climb at Kansas, but he is going to two tracks where he has run well. He has two wins at Talladega and two wins (and three stage wins) at the Charlotte road course. Even if he gets caught up in an incident next week, he should have confidence he can rally at Charlotte.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
5. Ryan Blaney (LW: 4)
Team Penske No. 12 Ford
Position: 2nd, +28 on playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 20th
Blaney won at Talladega a year ago, where he has won three times. He also won the inaugural Charlotte road course race in 2018. The only thing he has to worry about is if he used up all his good fortune at Kansas, where he needed a late caution to avoid having to pit under green and likely losing a lap.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
6. Denny Hamlin (LW: 6)
Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota
Position: 5th, +11 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 37th
Hamlin fans don’t read this: Hamlin was 37th in his last trip to Talladega and 37th in his last trip to the Charlotte road course. But it’s Hamlin, and he knows what is ahead of him. The biggest challenge is he probably needs stage points at Talladega to feel good leaving that race, and that isn’t always the most comfortable situation. He does have one top-5 in six starts at the Charlotte road course, but he’d hate to have to be in a position to have to earn a second top-5 to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making Championship 4)
7. Tyler Reddick (LW: 5)
23XI Racing No. 45 Toyota
Position: 9th, -4 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 1st
Where is the Tyler Reddick from a month ago? You know, the one who won the regular-season title? The driver who won at Talladega in the spring? He hopes he comes back and repeats at Talladega. If he has to rely on the Charlotte road course, he does have an average finish of seventh at that track.
Prediction: Championship 4 but no title (no change)
8. Alex Bowman (LW: 8)
Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 6th, +8 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 5th
Bowman has earned points in every stage of the playoffs, and if he keeps doing that, he’ll be in good shape. He was fifth in his most recent Talladega race and eighth at the Charlotte road course last year. He has two career top-5s at both tracks. He is racing with a chip on his shoulder, and that seems like a good thing.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (no change)
9. Joey Logano (LW: 9)
Team Penske No. 22 Ford
Position: 8th, +4 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 19th
Logano will need to reach into all of his championship experience to get out of this round as he is on the bubble. His last couple of Talladega races weren’t good, and he’s ended up wrecked at superspeedways — except when he won at Atlanta to open the playoffs. He does have five top-10s in six Charlotte road course starts, so he should have some confidence if it comes down to the wire.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
10. Daniel Suarez (LW: 11)
Trackhouse Racing No. 99 Chevrolet
Position: 10th, -14 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 26th
Suarez is in a relatively deep hole. Talladega is not one of his best tracks with just four top-10s in 15 starts and he has no top-10s in six Charlotte road course starts, where he has a surprisingly low 27th-place average finish. He needed to have a good day at Kansas and didn’t have one.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
11. Austin Cindric (LW: 10)
Team Penske No. 2 Ford
Position: 12th, -29 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 23rd
Cindric won the 2022 Daytona 500, so he knows how to win at the superspeedways. If he can win at Talladega, it would be another big superspeedway victory for him. He has one top-5 in five Talladega starts and no top-10s in two starts on the Charlotte road course. He will need to have some career finishes at these tracks and some help to advance.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
12. Chase Briscoe (LW: 12)
Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Ford
Position: 11th, -25 on the playoff cutoff
April 2024 Talladega Finish: 12th
Briscoe has one top-5 in his career at Talladega and one top-10 at the Charlotte road course. He’ll also need some career finishes at those two tracks, which typically aren’t kind to him. Still, could there be a storybook ending for the last two months of Stewart-Haas Racing’s existence? You never know.
Prediction: Eliminated in quarterfinal round (no change)
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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