2026 MLB Odds: Why Long Shot Ben Rice is Best Bet for AL MVP

We’re two weeks into the MLB season and while still very early, with just a handful of games to judge, teams and players are starting to give us clues as to who they might be going forward.

Despite losing three out of their last four games, the Yankees sit atop the American League East with an 8-6 record heading into the weekend. 

They will play a division opponent for the first time this season, as they travel to Tampa to take on the Rays for three games. Dominant starting pitching has been the story for the Bronx Bombers, as the 2.35 team ERA ranks second in baseball only behind the Braves. 

While the pitchers have carried the Yankees, a look at some advanced hitting stats makes me think the American League MVP could be given to a Yankee for the third consecutive year … but perhaps not to the guy you have in mind. 

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Aaron Judge has won three MVPs and will be headed to Cooperstown five years after he retires. Teammate Giancarlo Stanton might be going to the Hall of Fame alongside him. But Ben Rice — at now 65-1 odds — is the guy I have my eye on as a sleeper to be in the MVP mix into the fall. 

Rice — an Ivy League grad from Dartmouth — grew up as a Yankees fan, even though he lived in Massachusetts. In 2025, Rice quietly hit 26 home runs, despite being in a platoon situation that limited him to fewer than 500 at-bats. 

This year, Rice is a full-time player and looks poised for a breakout season.

Through 11 games, Rice is hitting .324 with three home runs and has drawn a walk per game, putting his on-base percentage at .476. 

Yes, it’s early, but the advanced stats back up the opinion that Rice is an elite bat. 

Rice ranks in the 100th percentile in Baseball Savant’s hard-hit rate and near the top in several of their advanced stats. Last year, he was in the 97th percentile of hard-hit rate, while his expected batting average was .283. That was much better than the .255 he ended up with after hitting into some tough luck throughout the year. 

Rice is also playing in a favorable home venue, with the shallow right field dimensions of Yankee Stadium tailor-made for lefty sluggers. 

With all this in mind, yes, Judge is the favorite to win this award once again and for good reason. But Rice was 150-1 just a few days ago and is now 65-1. People are seemingly starting to realize the elite potential that his bat carries. 

At 65-1, this is worth a wager, even if it’s a smaller one. I expect Rice to have a monster season now that he is a full-time player and for his odds to win MVP to shrink as we head toward the summer.

PICK: Ben Rice (+6500) AL MVP