Your Super Tuesday race guide

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YOUR SUPER TUESDAY RACE GUIDE
In a primary season when Democrats have been looking for clarity they have instead mostly found volatility. In four nominating contests thus far, there have been three winners and multiple momentum shifts.

But that may be changing.

If Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders can meet expectations, especially in delegate-rich California and Texas, he would be well on his way to winning the nomination outright. If he takes a bare majority of the delegates up for grabs today, Sanders would have almost a third of the 1,991 delegates he needs to win on the first ballot.

Sanders has won about 40 percent of the delegates so far. Even just matching that combined number in the 14 states holding primaries today would probably be enough to make catching him a mathematical impossibility.

That’s no guarantee, though.

There’s been major mainstream consolidation behind former Vice President Joe Biden as he’s swept up key endorsements across the country, including from recently departed contenders Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar and former South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Coming in the wake of Biden’s boffo win in South Carolina certainly suggests a surge.

But this is also the electoral debut of former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, whose lavishly financed candidacy has been a bad blow to Biden’s status as the mainstream front-runner.

If Biden can get out ahead of Bloomberg, especially in Southern states where his support from black voters should be a huge boost, that could set Biden up for a serious stretch run. The closer Biden can come to winning 500 of the 1,357 delegates up for grabs today the more credible his chances of winning the nomination outright.

Conversely, if he and Bloomberg split things up more evenly, it would be the strongest sign of a long struggle and the best chance for a contested convention.

With all that in mind, let’s take a spin through the Super Tuesday states:

CALIFORNIA (415 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
SEMI-CLOSED
 PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 11 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Clinton 51.5 percent, Obama 43.2 percent; 2016: Clinton 53.1 percent, Sanders 46 percent

2016 general election - Clinton 61.5 percent, Trump 31.5 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - California is going to be crucial in the battle for the House this fall. Keep an eye on key races throughout the Central Valley and Southern California as Democratic incumbents face primary challenges and Republicans try to gain back lost ground. Remember, these primaries will advance the top two finishers, regardless of party.

Race notes - California is the biggest prize on the map today, but don’t hold your breath waiting for results. So much of California’s vote is done by mail now – 3.2 million as of Sunday – and since state law allows “ballot harvesting” it may be days before we know how it all shakes out. Polls have long suggested that Bernie Sanders was in a dominant position here. If he gets a third of the vote, as polls have suggested he might, that would give Sanders more than 10 percent of the 1,991 delegates he needs to win the nomination. Given his success with Latino voters in Nevada’s caucuses, expectations are even higher. But with so many delegates, keep an eye on which candidates cross the 15 percent threshold in each of the state’s 53 congressional districts. Even if Sanders romps to a statewide win, Joe Biden, Mike Bloomberg and even onetime state front-runner Elizabeth Warren may pocket some delegates here once all the ballots are counted.    

TEXAS (228 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY

LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET

Past results -
 2008: Clinton 50.9 percent, Obama 47.4 percent; 2016: Clinton 65.2 percent, Sanders 33.2 percent

2016 general election - Trump 52.1 percent, Clinton 43.2 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - Texans have a busy Super Tuesday, with a U.S. Senate seat and 36 House districts on the ballot. In the race to unseat Republican Sen. John Cornyn, Air Force veteran MJ Hegar is the Democratic front-runner in a crowded field. Of the 36 House races of note, Republican Rep. Kay Granger is facing a strong party challenge from former Colleyville council member Chris Putnam and Former Rep. Pete Sessions is seeking a comeback for his District 17 seat. 

Race notes - Bernie Sanders’ persistent advantage in Texas polls for the past month or so have been a cause of huge concern for mainstream Democrats. If he can win or even dominate in a delegate-rich state where he struggled so badly four years ago, then Sanders would be unstoppable. But it may be more complicated than that. Joe Biden had been the Lone Star leader until Michael Bloomberg jumped into the race, lavishing campaign cash and lots of attention on the state. If Biden really has gotten a bounce out of his South Carolina win and spate of endorsements, including former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke, Texas would exactly the kind of place where it would show up.  Early voting started in Texas on Feb. 18, but roughly half of the votes cast in a Democratic primary in Texas happen on Election Day.

NORTH CAROLINA (110 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE 7:30 PM ET

Past results - 2008: Obama 56.1 percent, Clinton 41.6 percent; 2016: Clinton 54.5 percent, Sanders 40.9 percent

2016 general election - Trump 49.8 percent, Clinton 46.2 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - North Carolinians will be choosing candidates for what are expected to be sharply competitive races for governor and Senate. Sen. Thom Tillis is up for re-election and national Democrats are hoping moderate former state Sen. Cal Cunningham will give him a tough race. But progressive groups and some Republican mischief makers have been pushing for state Sen Erica Smith. Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is up for re-election, and Republicans Lt. Gov. Dan Forest and state Rep. Holly Grange have been battling for the chance to challenge him.

Race notes - The Tar Heel State shapes up as a good test of Joe Biden’s strength against both Bernie Sanders and Mike Bloomberg. The state has a considerable black population and plenty of moderate Democrats, good news for the former vice president. But since the contest is open to independents as well as Democrats, Bloomberg and Sanders will be looking for crossover success. For Bloomberg, that means moderates from large suburban awaited around Charlotte and Raleigh-Durham. Sanders will be looking to the state’s many college students to give him a boost.

VIRGINIA (99 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 7 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Obama 63.7 percent, Clinton 35.5 percent; 2016: Clinton 64.3 percent, Sanders 35.2 percent

2016 general election - Clinton 49.8 percent, Trump 44.4 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - Sanders and Bloomberg appear to be neck-in-neck in Virginia, but the race remains fluid. Biden secured two big endorsements from Sen. Tim Kaine and former Gov. Terry McAuliffe. On the issues, gun control has been the most divisive issue in Virginia in recent months after Democrats took over the state legislature on promises of gun control.

MASSACHUSETTS (91 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Clinton 56 percent, Obama 40.6 percent; 2016: Clinton 49.9 percent, Sanders 48.5 percent

2016 general results - Clinton 60 percent, Trump 32.8 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - Once, Elizabeth Warren was poised for an easy win in her home state. Now, she seems to have been relegated to the role of spoiler. Bernie Sanders comes to Massachusetts as the front-runner with Warren at his heels. If the two of them divide up far-left voters, it might create a narrow window for Joe Biden or even native Massachusean Mike Bloomberg. Whoever comes out on top though, the delegate count will be a split decision with 32 delegates to be divvied up among the candidates getting more than 15 percent statewide. 

MINNESOTA (75 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE 9 PM ET

Past results - 2008: Obama 66.4 percent, Clinton 32.2 percent; 2016: Sanders 62.2 percent, Clinton 32.5 percent

2016 general election - Clinton 46.4 percent, Trump 44.9 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - Minnesota is very different this year for a couple of reasons. First, favorite daughter Amy Klobuchar was positioned for a big win prior to her dropping out of the race Monday. But tens of thousands of voters already have cast their ballots — presumably with many thousands for her. The deadline to change early votes was a week ago, so we can expect her to pick up a significant number of delegates anyway. How many of her supporters will come out and vote for her pick Joe Biden remains a very open question. The other big factor to consider: This is Minnesota’s first primary since 1992. State Democrats ran a caucus through 2016 that tended to favor insurgent candidates. How will the primary system change that? Plus, since the state doesn’t have partisan registration, voters simply have to affirm they support the “general principles” of the party to participate.

COLORADO (67 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 9 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Obama 66.5 percent, Clinton 32.3 percent; 2016: Sanders 59 percent, Clinton 40.3 percent

2016 general election - Clinton 48.2 percent, Trump 43.3 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - This year will be very different for Colorado Democrats. Previous cycles had seen a low-turnout caucus dominated by activist voters. This time, they’ll be voting in a primary election that’s open the state’s many independent voters. Further complicating matters: More than 60 percent of ballots are expected to have been submitted by mail. Given the large number of very liberal voters and a Latino percentage of the electorate estimated at 20 percent or more, Sanders is considered the front-runner here. But there’s lots of volatility here, especially with the recent departure of candidates who had been relatively popular in the Centennial State. 

TENNESSEE (64 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET

Past results -
 2008: Clinton 53.8 percent, Obama 40.5 percent; 2016: Clinton 66.1 percent, Sanders 32.5 percent

2016 general election - Trump 65.3%, Clinton 28.9 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - Tennessee looks like a rough spot for Bernie Sanders, but will the Volunteer State show up for Joe Biden? The good news for Biden is that about a third of the electorate will probably be African American. But it’s also an open primary, which means it’s harder to gauge how well Sanders might perform or how many Republicans might cross over to support Mike Bloomberg. But the greatest complication for many will be the deadly tornadoes that struck the central part of the state Monday night. If turnout is seriously affected, that could make the more than 300,000 early votes – a constituency that tends to favor Sanders – more potent.

ALABAMA (52 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Obama 56 percent, Clinton 41.6 percent; 2016: Clinton 77.9 percent, Sanders 19.2 percent

2016 general election - Trump 62.1 percent, Clinton 34.4 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - Democratic Sen. Doug Jones is Republicans’ top target in the Senate this cycle, which explains the crowded field of contenders looking to take him on this fall. Former Attorney General Jeff Sessions is fighting to win back his seat and has been the front-runner in polls, but close behind are former Auburn University football coach Tommy Tuberville and Rep. Bradley Byrne. Former Judge Roy Moore, who lost to Jones in 2018, is also running, but to little apparent effect. The big question is whether Sessions can win outright with a majority of votes or, more likely, that he will face a runoff election with the second-place finisher on March 31.

Race notes - Alabama has the most African American electorate – more than half of Democratic voters were black four years ago – of any Super Tuesday state. This should be Joe Biden country in a big way.
 
OKLAHOMA (37 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
SEMI-CLOSED PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET

Past results -
 2008: Clinton 54.8 percent, Obama 31.2 percent; 2016: Sanders 51.9 percent, Clinton 41.5 percent

2016 general election - Trump 65.3%, Clinton 28.9 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - If you wanted one race to sum up the difference between Bernie Sanders 2016 and 2020, Oklahoma would be it. Sanders trounced Hillary Clinton four years ago as anti-Clinton voters across rural parts of the Sooner State turned out in force against her. This time around, Sanders has struggled while moderate candidates like Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg have shown impressive strength. Independents will be able to vote, however, adding some additional uncertainty. 

ARKANSAS (31 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8:30 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Clinton 70.1 percent, Obama 26.3 percent; 2016: Clinton 66.1 percent, Sanders 30 percent

2016 general election - Trump 60.6 percent, Clinton 33.7 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - Arkansas also holds non-partisan judicial elections today.

Race notes - About 30 percent of voters today are expected to be African Americans, a good sign for Joe Biden who has polled well with black Democrats. But Mike Bloomberg has also given considerable attention to the Natural State, including winning the support of Little Rock’s mayor. Bloomberg might also be helped by crossover Republicans and independents coming out to support him in and around Little Rock and in the state’s northeast corner around Bentonville. 

UTAH (29 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 10 PM ET

Past results -
 2008: Obama 56.7 percent, Clinton 39.1 percent; 2016: Sanders 79.2 percent, Clinton 20.3 percent

2016 general election - Trump 45.1 percent, Clinton 27.2 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - Though Utah offers a smaller number of delegates, the candidates are vying for as many of them as possible. Utah gave nearly all of their 29 delegates to Sanders in 2016, and they’re hoping to see a similar outcome today. It’s worth noting that both of Utah's presidential primaries are being held mostly by mail, which has been the case for state’s elections in previous years. Because of that Utahns may not know who won the presidential primary until days after the election. The Utah Democratic Party went as far as issuing a statement that specified that the party won’t release delegate allocation until all ballots have been counted.

MAINE (24 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
CLOSED PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 8 PM ET


Past results - 2008: Obama 59.3 percent, Clinton 39.9 percent; 2016: Sanders 64.3 percent, Clinton 35.5 percent

2016 general election - Clinton 47.8 percent, Trump 44.9 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None

Race notes - An overwhelmingly white New England state where he romped to victory in 2016? Maine sure sounds like Bernie Sanders country. But there may be some hitches. First, Maine has ditched its caucus system for a closed primary, the most challenging format for Sanders. Second, consolidation among mainstream Democrats could make a big difference here. While Sanders is certainly the favorite, don’t count out Biden. 
 
VERMONT (16 PLEDGED DELEGATES)
OPEN PRIMARY
LAST POLLS CLOSE AT 7 PM ET

Past results -
 2008: Obama 59.3 percent, Clinton 38.6 percent; 2016: Sanders 86 percent, Clinton 13.6 percent       

2016 general election - Clinton 56.7 percent, Trump 30.3 percent

Other key races on the ballot today - None 

Race notes - It’s no secret that Vermont feels the Bern. Sanders, unsurprisingly, has cleaned up on Democratic endorsements from his home state including fellow Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt. and Lt. Gov. David Zuckerman. As a very liberal northeast state, climate change is toward the top of the issues for Vermont Democrats. Tuesday is Town Meeting Day, which is the annual day for local elections in Vermont, so expect voters to be out in force.


Chris Stirewalt is the politics editor for Fox News. Brianna McClelland contributed to this report. Want FOX News Halftime Report in your inbox every day? Sign up here.