Trump’s Canada tariffs threaten to make life less affordable before midterms
Trump’s escalating trade war with Canada could raise costs for businesses and consumers in key battleground states before voters head to the polls.
Voters who have already cast ballots and those heading to the polls on Tuesday are weighing an economy shaped by rising everyday costs, surging home prices and strong gains in the stock market.
President Donald Trump vowed a better economy and a brighter financial future in his 2024 bid for office. But nearly two years into his second term, fuel prices have surged, inflation has accelerated and buying a home remains expensive — all pressures that put Republicans' affordability promises to the test in this midterm election cycle.
Three charts help exhibit the economic forces shaping voters’ choices as control of Congress hangs in the balance and the future of Trump's agenda is put on the line.
HIGH PRICES PUT TRUMP’S ECONOMY IN THE SPOTLIGHT AS THE GOP FIGHTS TO HOLD CONGRESS
Customers shop for groceries at a Target store in Salt Lake City, Utah, on Friday, July 31, 2026. Target has been overhauling its grocery aisles since the spring, hoping the upscale Tarzhay success it once had with stylish apparel and home goods in the early 2000s can be revived in food. (Kim Raff/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Everyday costs keep climbing
The latest inflation report showed consumer prices rose 3.7% over the year through September and 0.6% from August. The Consumer Price Index tracks prices across a broad range of household expenses, including food, housing, medical care and transportation.
Trade policy has added to some of those costs.
A New York Federal Reserve study found that Trump's tariffs added about 2.9 percentage points to prices across the consumer goods researchers examined.
Roughly one-third of the increase came from U.S.-made products, as domestic manufacturers faced higher costs for imported materials and components under Trump's agenda.
The impact varies by household, but these figures offer a snapshot of the price pressures voters may weigh ahead of the midterms. They show how costs have changed, though not how voters will assign responsibility.
Diesel costs ripple through the economy
A semi-truck driver replaces a diesel fuel pump at a Love's gas station in Eloy, Arizona, on Wednesday, March 18, 2026. U.S. diesel rose above $5 a gallon for the first time since December 2022, the latest sign of surging fuel price pressures menacing the global economy as the war in Iran continues to disrupt energy supplies. (Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
Higher energy costs are putting pressure on households and businesses, as the wars in Iran and Ukraine disrupt global fuel supplies.
Diesel prices have climbed sharply, rising from about $3.45 per gallon in early 2025 to a peak of $6.53 in October 2026, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
The increase matters beyond the pump because trucks, freight trains and farm equipment rely on diesel.
AMERICAN-MADE GOODS ALSO GOT MORE EXPENSIVE UNDER TRUMP TARIFFS, NEW RESEARCH FINDS
Higher fuel costs can raise expenses for businesses moving groceries, packages and building materials, which may absorb some of the increase or pass it along to customers.
Gasoline prices are also adding to household costs. They jumped 9.1% in September, accounting for more than half of that month’s overall increase in the Consumer Price Index.
A tougher path to homeownership
Housing remains a major affordability challenge, particularly for prospective buyers.
Housing industry leaders say states that have prioritized homebuilding have been better positioned to accommodate population growth and economic expansion. (Joshua Lott/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate averaged 7.24% as of Oct. 29, while the latest median price for an existing home was $417,500 in September, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Mortgage rates shape buyers’ monthly payments, and home prices determine how much they need to borrow, making it harder for many households to enter the market.
TRUMP’S HOUSING CHIEF PAINTS A GRIM PICTURE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP IN ONE MAJOR AMERICAN CITY
Rising home values can benefit people who already own property, but that wealth is difficult to access without selling or borrowing against a home. For renters and first-time buyers, the costs are more immediate.
The data offer a snapshot of the costs voters have faced, but the charts alone cannot show how they will weigh the economy — or which party they will hold responsible — as results come in.
