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The 2020 presidential election is less than two weeks away, and former Vice President Joe Biden is ahead of President Donald Trump by all indications. Biden has a significant national polling lead and also leads in key swing states.
Though I write this before the second presidential debate, Trump’s window to shake-up the race in his favor is undeniably closing.
Yet, for many Americans, Biden’s current position feels reminiscent of the two weeks before the 2016 election, when Hillary Clinton held a similar lead. At this point in 2016, FiveThirtyEight’s election model gave Hillary Clinton an 86% chance of winning. The same model now gives Biden an 88% chance.
Thus, this begs the question: is Biden in a better, worse, or the same position that Clinton was in 2016? And ultimately, is it still possible for Trump to win another upset victory?
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Trends in national polling reveal that Biden is in a stronger position than Clinton was two weeks before the 2016 election. Yet, trends in swing-state polling show that Biden’s lead in key states is tighter than Clinton’s was at this point.
So, simply put, while Biden is ahead, the race appears to actually be closer than many pundits suggest.
On one hand, Biden’s national position is clearly stronger than Clinton’s was at this stage. According to RealClearPolitics’ comparison of 2020 and 2016 national polling averages, Biden’s national lead is approximately 3-points greater than Clinton’s two weeks before the election. Biden is 8.4-points ahead of Trump, whereas Clinton was 5.6-points ahead.
Further, Biden’s national lead over Trump throughout the campaign has been consistent and robust, and is still widening. Biden’s advantage has hovered around 7-points over the last 6 to 8 weeks, and grew to approximately 9-points this past week.
On the other hand, national polls in 2016 were more volatile, and Clinton’s average lead during the same 6 to 8-week period ranged from less than 1-point to a peak of 7-points, which was in large part fueled by the release of the incriminating Access Hollywood tape of Trump.
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In addition, Clinton’s path to the White House was always uncertain, in my view. She was unpopular, and ran on Obama’s coattails at a time when many Americans wanted change. Clinton also faced lingering criticism for her private email server and role in the Benghazi attacks, and encountered an “October surprise,” when FBI Director James Comey announced the reopening of the investigation into her email server just one week before the election.
Yet, Biden does not face most of these obstacles. His personal ratings are positive, he is running as the change agent against an incumbent president who most Americans believe has failed to manage a pandemic that has upended American life, and doesn’t carry many of the crushing political liabilities that Clinton did.
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However, Biden could be facing a potential “October Surprise” with the recent news that the FBI is in possession of the laptop supposedly belonging to his son, Hunter Biden, which allegedly contained emails revealing details of his foreign business dealings with China and Ukraine.
In my view, the Hunter Biden emails and texts appear to most likely be genuine, but whether there is a smoking gun linking Joe Biden directly to any of Hunter Biden's activity remains to be seen. Further, it also remains to be seen if President Trump will be able to compellingly link Joe Biden to Hunter Biden’s activities in a way that helps him politically in Thursday’s debate.
Further, Biden’s margins among key consistencies that Trump won in 2016—independents, seniors, white voters, and suburban voters—are much stronger and more stable than Clinton’s were. And with far fewer undecided voters this year, and millions of Americans having already voted, there is less of a chance of a consequential last-minute swing to Trump among undecided voters.
However, on the other hand, trends in swing-state polling suggest that the race is actually tighter than may be apparent.
According to RealClearPolitics’ comparison of 2020 and 2016 key swing-state polling averages—in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina, Arizona—Biden has been polling slightly behind where Clinton was at this point in 2016. Over the last week, Biden’s daily position has ranged from being neck-in-neck with Clinton’s to polling approximately 1-point behind her.
Biden is clearly hyper-focused on winning back the previously Democratic firewall states that narrowly tipped for Trump in 2016: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. According to CNN advertisement tracking data, Biden is outspending Trump on television by 2-to-1 or more in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, and has made several of his few campaign appearances in these states, making direct appeals to white working-class voters.
While Biden leads by considerable margins in each of the three states, his lead in each is narrower than Clinton’s was at this stage.
In Pennsylvania, Biden leads by 3-points, yet Clinton led by 6-points at this point in 2016. Further, Biden’s average lead has decreased by over 3-points in just one week, shrinking from 7-points on October 14th to 3.7-points on October 21st.
Similarly, in Michigan, Biden has an average 7-point lead, yet Clinton led by over 11-points at this stage. And in Wisconsin, Biden leads by approximately 6-points, while Clinton led by 7-points.
If Biden is unable to win one or more of these three states, he would realistically need to win at least one other battleground—likely Arizona, Florida, or North Carolina—where he currently leads by an average of no more than 1 to 3 points in each, which is well within most polls’ margins of error.
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And generally, swing-state polls are more predictive of the outcome of the election, rather than national polls, which are disproportionately based on New York, California, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Illinois—which according to Survey Monkey are close to 2-1 Biden, with Biden at or close to 60% of the vote in each.
Thus, while most signs point to a likely Biden victory, another upset win by Trump is within the realm of possibility and the race is closer than many currently believe it to be.
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