With 100 days until the election of 2010 takes place, the one thing that's clear is the anti-incumbent fervor the runs across the entire political spectrum. Yes, Democrats will feel the brunt of this voter unrest -- the party in power almost always loses seats in Congress in midterm election years like this one.
But this year is likely to be different. As incumbents in both parties may discover, they are in trouble this November.
One problem the GOP has is the GOP. The brand is still badly damaged by voters' memories of George W. Bush and hampered further by low ratings of congressional Republicans today. The Tea Party brings energy to Republicans but no clear leader or message has emerged to win over independent and swing voters. And divisions persist between the Tea Party and the Republican Party establishment.
By all rights this should be a terrible year for Democrats and could end up that way still, but with 100 days to go the Republicans could still kick this one away.
For all the problems voters have with Democrats right now, they don't have much love for Republicans either. I think there is a very good chance that by November several Republican incumbents will be in deep trouble. If Democrats were to lose 30 seats in Congress and Republicans lost 12 seats, for example, yes it would be a bad year for Democrats but not nearly the year Republicans hope for.
At this point I think it could go either way. We could be looking at Democrats on the verge of losing the House of Representatives, or watching Republicans squander the opportunity of a decade.
It's going to be an anti-Washington, anti-incumbent year. Most think that means it will swing against the Democrats in November, but I think the establishment in the Republican Party doesn't understand that the real surprise may be that both parties are in trouble and that GOP incumbents are going to be sent home in November in numbers no one expects today.
Joe Trippi is a Fox News contributor and political strategist who worked for Ted Kennedy, Walter Mondale and Gary Hart and turned Howard Dean into an unlikely front runner in 2004. For more visitJoeTrippi.com.
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