Tucker: Virginia, NJ races may give preview of 'tsunami' to come

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Tucker: Virginia and New Jersey vote counting underway

'Tucker Carlson Tonight' host weighs in on the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races as polls close

This is a rush transcript from "Tucker Carlson Tonight," November 2, 2021. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

TUCKER CARLSON, FOX NEWS CHANNEL HOST: I want to begin with a FOX News Alert tonight.

There has been a hitch in the highly anticipated count in the Virginia governor's race. Fairfax County, which is the biggest and most Democratic county in the State of Virginia will not be supplying its vote results on time. We're supposed to have early vote shortly after seven o'clock Eastern, but an hour ago, a Fairfax County official announced that there is a delay. They say they need to rescan the ballots. They're going to release a partial count quote, "of their early vote in-person" sometime this evening.

Bill Hemmer will be tracking that for us. We're also going to talk to Brit Hume -- trying to figure out how many votes they need apparently. Just kidding.

Good evening and welcome to TUCKER CARLSON TONIGHT.

Exactly one year from today is the congressional midterm elections. Tonight, two governors' races in solidly Democratic states on the Eastern Seaboard may give us a preview of what could be a tsunami to come.

In New Jersey where polls have just closed, finance goon, Phil Murphy who appears to have declared himself king of the long-suffering Goomba Republic faces a surprisingly sharp challenge from a Republican called Jack Ciattarelli.

It seems impossible that Murphy could actually lose in a state where entire cemeteries vote. There are more than a million Democrats registered in New Jersey than are Republicans, but despite those numbers, he may come close and that would be a deeply ominous sign for the party of Joe Biden. We'll know the outcome of that race in just a few moments, of course, we'll bring it to you immediately.

And then in the Commonwealth of Virginia, previously mentioned, that is the most consequential election of the year. Terry McAuliffe was once the governor of the state. He ran and won eight years ago as a moderate, a pro- business Democrat, a deal maker who didn't have time for ideology and he won big. And now he's back after four years, McAuliffe wants to run Virginia again, but this time he is a new man.

Like so many in his social class, Terry McAuliffe has gone woke. He is an apostle for Bidenism, for equity, diversity in the race-based politics of everything.

A few weeks ago, McAuliffe announced that parents no longer have the authority over their own children. Public schools in Virginia are going to force feed your kids racist propaganda and there is nothing you can do about it. If you complain, you're a white supremacist.

McAuliffe said that repeatedly on television and he meant it, and then to underscore the point, Terry McAuliffe appeared at his final rally last night with his only actual constituent, that would be the head of the country's most radical teachers union, Randi Weingarten, the person who bankrolls the Democratic Party.

Like Terry McAuliffe, Randi Weingarten isn't from Virginia. Like Terry McAuliffe, she has never had children in public schools, and so in that way, it was a perfect match. Here is part of what she said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RANDI WEINGARTEN, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN FEDERATION OF TEACHERS: We know what happened when Terry McAuliffe was governor in this state. We know how things turned around in terms of the economy. We know how things turned around in terms of people being seen and respected.

We know all of a sudden that people were heard, parents were heard, teachers were heard.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: She's a lot of fun. Would you put her at the podium if she wasn't paying you? No, of course not, nobody would, but did you listen to what she said? She said that until Terry McAuliffe was the governor eight years ago, certain people in Virginia were not quote, "seen and respected." In other words, the state was a racist hell-hole and then, thank heaven, Terry McAuliffe, Bill Clinton's sketchy nearly indicted hatchet man from Upstate New York arrived and liberated the place.

Terry McAuliffe is Virginia's Abe Lincoln. That's what they're telling you. It's hilarious.

Here is Virginia's most famous political expert, a guy who works at a local college explaining that only bigots oppose Abe Lincoln.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LARRY SABATO, CENTER FOR POLITICS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA: The operative word is not critical, and it's not theory, it's grace. What a shock, huh? Race. That is what matters and that's why it sticks.

There's a lot of -- we can call it white backlash, white resistance, whatever you want to call it. It has to do with race.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: White backlash, white resistance, white, white, white, white, white -- meaning evil, cruel, and bigoted. That's the case all of them including their little experts are making for Terry McAuliffe they're telling the other guys are racist. Now, they're saying that because during election season, that usually works for Democrats, but what's interesting is that in this case, it is not working.

Glenn Youngkin is the Republican candidate in this race. He is not a racist. He is a Christian. He is a decent uncommonly gentleman, too gentle for politics in fact, many assumed. And yet over the past few weeks, Glenn Youngkin has made a powerful and moving case for the America that most people still want, a colorblind meritocracy where all of us are judged for who we are as people, as individuals under God, and not for how we look, as a member of some group.

That vision could get Glenn Youngkin elected governor. We expect it to find out tonight, and now these hiccups with the count in Fairfax County. There is a lot to assess tonight and of course, it goes without saying that we're going to begin our coverage with the great Brit Hume, FOX's senior political analyst.

Brit, thanks so much for coming on. First, what do you think is going on in Fairfax County? Why does this always happen? And second, what does this race mean to the country?

BRIT HUME, FOX NEWS CHANNEL SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, Fairfax County doesn't have a particular history of monkey shines with the voting tabulation, so I assume it might be some technical problem, but I think until we know more, it is really impossible to say whether this is meaningful or just the kind of thing that happens on election nights as systems that are set up don't function the way they're supposed to. We'll just have to wait and see, I think, Tucker.

CARLSON: Yes, so this is a race that Democrats are very intent on not losing, very intent. Why do they seem so anxious about this race, do you think?

HUME: Well, I think a couple of things is that the Democratic Party nationally is in trouble and voters are, you know, disappointed at Biden, angry at Biden, distressed about what other things they see about inflation. Many are distressed about what they think is going on in their schools that they didn't seem previously to be quite aware of. People were terribly disappointed in the disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal, and the list goes on.

This is the first real opportunity that people have had to cast a ballot in objection to the sitting party in Washington against a candidate in a state race. It isn't all there is to the race by any means, but it's a big factor and it has weighed down Terry McAuliffe as he himself has said, not so much, Tucker, that he didn't have Biden come into the state to campaign for him because he's trying desperately to turn out a full measure of his own Democratic base, which if it all turns out, might well deliver him the vote. There are more Democrats than there are Republicans in the State of Virginia, a state which is, despite some people's claim that it is sort of purple, it's not, it's a blue state now and a win by Youngkin in there or even a very -- something very close to a win would be quite a negative message for the Democrats to receive as they look ahead to next year.

CARLSON: Well, that's for sure. I mean, Biden just won the state a year ago this week by 10 points, so I guess that's the question.

HUME: And one more thing, well, yes --

CARLSON: Well, would a loss -- would a loss here by McAuliffe, by the Democrat endorsed by the leaders of the party, would that slow down Biden's agenda? Do you think there would be a reassessment like maybe people don't love this?

HUME: Well, I don't think it would help. You know, when the voters are turning out against your party and you've got, you know a great big controversial proposal pending and you're worried about votes peeling away and you don't have any despair, this is -- obviously, a defeat tonight would not help at all even a close call might not help.

One more thing, Tucker, we ought to take notice of and that is this. The Youngkin Campaign sought to make education and other things, but education principally, the big issue. The McAuliffe Campaign tried to make Donald Trump the biggest issue, and he tried as hard as he possibly could to tie Glenn Youngkin to Donald Trump calling him an outlier, telling some big whopper last night during the final events of the campaign that Trump was actually in the state campaigning with Youngkin, which was absolutely false, but that gives you an idea of it.

Youngkin has played an interesting game where Trump is concerned. He has not criticized Trump. He did not reject his endorsement, said in fact, he was glad to receive Trump's endorsement, but he never campaigned with him, and he is certainly no Trump acolyte. Trump would like, I think, to pretend that he was, particularly if he wins, Trump will be claiming all the credit.

But it may be an interesting sign of how Republicans will choose to campaign going forward, trying not to alienate the Trump base, which is very important to them, but not to tie themselves to Trump, which Democrats believe Trump to be the biggest issue in their favor. It's a very interesting situation.

CARLSON: It is. It's going to tell us a lot. Brit Hume, thank you so much for coming on tonight.

HUME: You bet.

CARLSON: So most people sense this race is a big deal, it's not just a conventional governor's race and the State of Virginia is all of a sudden looking a little bit complicated, so we've asked FOX's Bill Hemmer to join us right now for an assessment of what exactly we're watching. Hey, Bill.

BILL HEMMER, FOX NEWS CHANNEL ANCHOR: Hey, Tucker. Good evening to you. You're talking with Brit about what's happening here in Fairfax County, why is it so important? There are a lot of votes in Fairfax County, Tucker.

Go back 11 months ago to the presidential election and you see the Democratic domination that Joe Biden had over Donald Trump, he is at 70 percent with 419,000 raw votes that equated to 251,000 votes in his column last November, so come to present day in the governor's race right now and you ask yourself, why do you have less than one percent of the vote in? I don't have an answer for you. I can tell you what election officials are telling us, they had an early scan, they need to do it again. They will release a partial result of that second scan sometime early this evening, and then we'll have to wait and see as for the explanation after that.

But listen, population rank is one out of 103 counties and cities, it's a big deal when you're talking about this amount of votes in an election that we know is going to be tight, whether it's McAuliffe or Youngkin or who wins by a point or two, even less than that, it is going to be a tight race.

Come down here, Tucker, if I've got a moment here. This is Chesterfield. You know what are the suburbs doing without Donald Trump on the ballot? What about those members of the Republican Party that said, they are going to cast their vote somewhere else or the Independents were going to be in his favor. Well, Chesterfield County right now with 83 percent of the vote in, Youngkin holds about 55 percent of the vote.

His party, his team has to be very happy with this result right now in Chesterfield. I'll show you one more though because we think, you know pretty much of a bellwether for a statewide election, here you go, Tucker, 92 percent of the vote is in in Loudoun County right now, Terry McAuliffe leads 55-44, so he has just started to take a little bit of an edge here out of Glenn Youngkin's vote here.

We think Youngkin needed to be at 42 at the bottom 43-44 in order to win statewide. Right now, he is at 44, so right on that margin here, and we'll see what happens with the remaining eight percent of the vote in Loudoun County.

There's a ton to go through, Tucker. I'll check in with you a bit later in the hour.

CARLSON: Amazing. Bill Hemmer, great to see you tonight. Thanks so much.

So as we've said, this race has meaning and Salena Zito of "The Washington Examiner" has been taking a really close look at what this race in Virginia does mean, we're happy to have her join us now.

Salena, thanks so much for coming on.

SALENA ZITO, "THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER": Thanks for having me.

CARLSON: So how do you interpret what we're watching in Virginia?

ZITO: Well, I think this election has been about local issues, things that are very important to voters on a very community-based level -- education, security, inflation -- those are the things that they are voting on. I think the mistake that the Democrats have made is they have tried to nationalize this race and make it all about Donald Trump, but voters are more complicated than that, whether you did or did not support Trump in 2020 or 2016, these voters have moved on.

They are thinking about their kids, they are thinking about their communities and that is what they are voting on, and I think that Democrats have largely missed that and I think Youngkin really tapped into understanding the aspirational notion of localism, right?

Anytime you listen to him talk, he has talked about the voters. He always said, "This is not about me, this is about you," and that aspirational quality was very important to voters that were very concerned about their education, about security, and about the inflation.

CARLSON: So when you nationalize a race in the way that the McAuliffe Campaign, I think, very foolishly did, what you're really doing is bringing it to an ideological level. You're saying, "Here's my world view accept it," but don't most people vote for politicians because they want their lives to improve in ways that we can measure? Like better roads, lower taxes, a safer walk to the grocery store.

ZITO: Right.

CARLSON: Like, where did they come up with the idea that this was a good idea?

ZITO: Well, because they think -- the Democrats believe that they're doing a great job. They are still sort of encased in the bubble, if you ask any questions sort of about the polling, Biden will dismiss, "Oh we're fine. Oh, they go up and down." They're very dismissive and not believing that they're in trouble, and they believe that voters sent them with a mandate to spend like drunken sailors.

What voters sent them to Washington for was to calm things down. They've done the exact opposite and people are reacting to overreach. This is all about overreach, and it is also an inside-outside election. It is very different than a right-left election, and when it's an inside-outside election, the party that is in power traditionally loses races.

CARLSON: Yes, especially when they wreck the country, I would say.

ZITO: Yes.

CARLSON: Salena Zito, great to see you tonight. Thank you so much.

ZITO: Thanks for having me.

CARLSON: They certainly haven't calmed things down and in fact, for the last year and a half, Democrats have talked nonstop really about one issue -- race. The issue that most Americans have talked quite enough about already and don't care to talk too much more about because it doesn't really improve anything, but they're still talking about it.

FOX's Trace Gallagher has traced the extent to which they're talking about it. He joins us tonight for an overview. Hey, Trace.

TRACE GALLAGHER, FOX NEWS CHANNEL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Tucker. The twisted logic here is that Democrats feel they need to create these racist scenarios to prove that Republicans are racist.

A few days ago, G.O.P. candidate Glenn Youngkin was at a campaign stop in Charlottesville, Virginia, home to the violent protest in 2017. Standing outside of Youngkin's campaign bus where five young people dressed as white nationalists, pretending to support Youngkin.

Naturally, the Terry McAuliffe Campaign thinking these phony white nationalists were legit immediately condemned them and Youngkin as quote "disgusting and disqualifying."

Well, it turns out the whole white nationalist scene was created by The Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump, anti-Republican political action committee. When asked about the stunt, The Lincoln Project said, it was to remind Virginia voters that the G.O.P. embraces racist values.

Now, four years ago in the Virginia governor's race, another Democratic group released an ad featuring a pickup truck flying the Confederate flag with a bumper sticker supporting Republican Ed Gillespie with this tagline. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Is this what Donald Trump and Ed Gillespie mean by the American Dream?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GALLAGHER: If Republicans created pretend racist scenarios to indict Democrats, the media pushback would likely be a bit more severe -- Tucker.

CARLSON: Yes, thank you for -- I had totally forgotten about that spot four years ago. Trace Gallagher, great to see you.

GALLAGHER: You, as well.

CARLSON: So the question of parents and to what extent they have a role in their children's lives has been at the very center of this campaign. Parents showed up to school boards across the country particularly in Virginia and demanded a role in what their children are learning.

One of the parents who spoke out was Brandon Michon from Loudoun County. He joins us now on the eve of an election that is shaped by the story he was at the center of. Brandon, thanks so much for coming on today.

BRANDON MICHON, CONCERNED PARENT, LOUDOUN COUNTY: Thanks, Tucker.

CARLSON: Did you think that these school board meetings would become a -- you know, sort of the focus of national attention and a national debate?

MICHON: No really, I didn't. I mean, look, it's become a movement and it's become a parent's movement. A lot of parents were awoken in 2020, you know, their kids were kept out of school. They saw what was going on when the curtain was pulled back on curriculum and they realized, you know there's a lot of things that maybe I just don't agree with and regardless of your politics -- Republican, Democratic, Independent -- people said, you know what, some of this maybe isn't right.

CARLSON: Well, that's for sure, and what certainly isn't right indisputably is the attitude with which School Boards, teachers, teachers unions responded to parents the idea was, "Hey, shut up. It's none of your business what we're teaching your kids."

In all the time that you've worked on this, have you come across anybody in any of those positions, teacher administrators, school union head, who has been open-minded and like talked to you, had a real dialogue as they say with you or has it been entirely dismissive?

MICHON: Look, I'm from Loudoun County. Our Loudoun County School Board has pretty much been a disgrace. We actually, you know, we had a passing of one School Board member when they brought in a new individual, that individual had more Town Halls in two weeks than anyone else on that School Board and I think parents, their frustration had come from, you know not being able to hear their voice, and you know we asked for Town Halls, they don't want to -- they don't want to, you know listen.

And you realize, for Loudoun, it's because they are covering up sexual assaults, and this pushes into the election where you know parents said look, I can care about my children's education. My children's education matters, and you know specifically the safety when I send them on the school bus or drop them off matters even more, and that's gravitated for a lot of people.

And you know I think one side, Terry McAuliffe was saying, look, the associations and unions matter, but you have Glenn Youngkin saying parents matter and I'm going to empower you and I think that's resonated at least through this campaign.

CARLSON: Well, yes. I mean who do these people think they work for exactly? Don't you pay them? Whose children do they believe these are? Aren't they your children? Like where do get these attitudes?

MICHON: Exactly, and you know, it's hard when you see people like Terry saying look this doesn't matter, but I send them to private schools. Well, isn't that exactly having a decision in your children's education?

CARLSON: Well, yes.

MICHON: We don't -- you know, this isn't about every little fundamental issue. We're not going to get a perfect curriculum, but what we can do is empower our kids to be better and to strive to be the best they can academically.

And I think that broad -- you know, that crosses so many political lines that it makes it an individual impact to everyone and this has created a movement in Virginia and it's also created a discussion nationally instead of a blueprint -- you know, set a blueprint for America to have these discussions.

CARLSON: Any school that resists parental involvement is up to something evil by definition. No one loves your kids more than you do. Period. So that really is the test, I'm glad that you called them out on that.

MICHON: That's right.

CARLSON: Brandon, thanks so much for coming on.

MICHON: Thank you so much for having me.

CARLSON: So education as we said again and again became this unexpected, very center of the Virginia governor's race, but it wasn't the only issue.

Shannon Bream is the host of "FOX News at Night" and our friend, she joins us with what else has been going on in the Commonwealth of Virginia -- Shannon Bream.

SHANNON BREAM, FOX NEWS CHANNEL CHIEF LEGAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Tucker. Well listen, Virginia voters do say the economy is their top issue facing the state for the Commonwealth followed distantly by the pandemic and education.

Youngkin is ahead among economy voters by 25 points and education voters by 40 points, but the people who are most focused on the pandemic, they are going for McAuliffe by an even wider 57 point margin.

Virginia has begun its recovery from pandemic shutdowns. Over half rate the state's economy positively either excellent or good, and those folks like McAuliffe. Now, at the same time, just 16 percent say they are getting ahead financially; about as many say they're falling behind. Most of them though, 66 percent say they are holding steady financially.

Now, Youngkin campaigned on cutting taxes, including eliminating state and local taxes on groceries that has helped to give him a big lead among the 21 percent who say that the candidate's positions on taxes were actually the single most important factor to their vote this time around.

Now, President Biden's remarks on the national economy are negative, 54 disapproved, so we'll see how much there is a link between the Democratic candidate, Terry McAuliffe and the White House as this race continues to play out -- Tucker.

CARLSON: Shannon Bream, thanks so much. Great to see you tonight for that summary.

BREAM: You, too.

CARLSON: So the issue that has affected every American is going to start to affect our politics in a very big way is the question of scarcity. Why can't you buy things that you could buy last year? And part of the answer is supply chain.

The supply chain is broken. What does that mean exactly? Well, Mike Taylor is one of the few people who knows what it does mean and can explain it. He is one of the owners of Combined Energy Services, and we're happy to have him on tonight.

Mike, thanks so much for coming on. So, when we hear that the supply chains are falling apart, what does that mean? And how long until it's fixed?

MIKE TAYLOR, OWNER, COMBINED ENERGY SERVICES: Well, Tucker, I don't know if I can really answer when it's going to be fixed, but I can tell you in our world, we deliver propane gas, home heating oil, welding supplies, and compressed gases, we're having a heck of a time getting all sorts of materials. I keep hoping those are going to get better. But the shortages are continuing and the prices of all the commodities that we buy are going up drastically.

Right now, I have six brand new trucks on order. They are months and months behind. I have to constantly replace my fleet. We don't know when they're coming in. In the meantime also, trying to get parts for my delivery fleet is getting harder and harder keeping trucks on the road, so how the supply chain is going to help itself, I really can't tell you.

CARLSON: So those --

TAYLOR: I also want to say --

CARLSON: Let me just ask you, why can't you get those parts? Those are made abroad, I assume.

TAYLOR: Well, I think it's a variety of factors. We sell heating systems, so trying to get new furnaces and boilers. Welding supplies, a lot of that is imported, a lot of it is produced domestically and the shippers just do not have the trucking capacity or the labor force to get the materials to us. We're hearing it constantly.

We purchase many tanks, propane tanks for homeowners and businesses, industrial gas tanks, CO2 tanks. The manufacturers are eight to ten months behind they tell us, and they can't even quote us prices as price of steel has already gone up at least 40 percent.

We're placing orders 10 months out ahead and it's very hard to even budget or predict where we're going to be.

CARLSON: I mean kind of a big thing since winter is coming, it is now November. People heat with gas. I mean, are we going to see parts of the country where people aren't going to be able to get the energy they need to stay warm? Do you think that's possible?

TAYLOR: Well, I definitely think we're heading for problems, Tucker. We're exporting a lot of gas out of the country at the moment. Inventories are, I think, 23 percent lower today for propane gas than they were a year ago. My problem more than anything at the moment is a labor shortage.

My company, we have about 130 employees. I currently have 15 openings, I can't fill them. We have a brand new welding supply store in Rockland County, New York just above New York City, I can't get it open.

CDL drivers, we're trying everything we can to get those, and that's one of our major problems across the country, the bottlenecks, finding delivery drivers. We've resorted to -- my 19-year-old daughter came home from college to help me make a video we're going to use on social media for advertising to show how easy it is to deliver propane essentially.

But on top of all this across the country, we have the United States Department of Transportation on February 7th is implementing new strenuous training requirements for all new permit holders to get their CDL. So essentially, for 30 years, we've had the same process. It was fairly easy to get a permit and you go out and practice. Now, they require behind the wheel documented training and authorized training center modules.

So the problems we have now are going to be compounded greater February 7th, five times, I guarantee.

CARLSON: It turns out we needed fewer marketing majors and more truck drivers. I wish someone told us that 20 years ago. Mike Taylor --

TAYLOR: I totally agree.

CARLSON: Yes, fewer marketing majors, I think that's -- if I were to run for something, that would be my slogan, no more marketing majors.

Mike Taylor, great to see you.

TAYLOR: Please. Thanks. Appreciate it.

CARLSON: So we've got these two races still in progress tonight. We don't have the final numbers, but we're going to have them really soon, New Jersey and Virginia. That's coming up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON: It looks like we're getting flashes of real clarity tonight on the race in Virginia. We're going to go right to FOX's Bill Hemmer who is at the board for us now. Hey, Bill.

HEMMER: We've got a lot to show you, Tucker, here. I need to spin around the state, okay. I want you to think about the rural areas, think about the suburbs and a couple of these key areas.

Right now, at the moment, Glenn Youngkin has to feel pretty good right now. The rural part of the state, southwestern down here, on a percentage basis now, not a real vote total, but a percentage basis, he is outperforming Donald Trump in some of these rural counties.

Scott County at 89 percent. A moment ago, I was here in Lee County, he is at almost 90 percent. By comparison 11 months ago, Trump on a percentage basis was 84 and over here in Scott County, he was 83. The point is, Republicans did very well under Donald Trump last November, but at the moment, Glenn Youngkin on a percentage basis is outperforming him. That's got to be impressive for the Youngkin camp.

Now, Southeastern Virginia, haven't checked in here for a while. This is Virginia Beach. This is really interesting to watch. Let's come back to the governor's race here. Currently, Youngkin is at 58 percent, Tucker, with about half of the vote in.

We had Youngkin at a floor of 52 in order to do very well across the state, he is already up by six points on the floor with half the vote in. This is Norfolk right here in blue, strong Democratic area, strong African-American vote. Joe Biden won this district last November with about 71 to 72 percent of the vote with about little less than half, 41 percent.

Terry McAuliffe is under performing Joe Biden on a percentage level, so we're going to keep an eye on this here and Youngkin's numbers there you see below.

What's happening in the suburbs? I'll go back to Chesterfield to check in here. You've got a -- we just had a big dump here in Chesterfield of votes coming in at 85 percent. Youngkin is holding on at 55 percent. Why is that critical? We believe that he had -- his floor would have been 51 percent.

So, you've got 15 percent of the vote outstanding and Youngkin is hanging on in a significant way in Chesterfield. Suburbs of Richmond critical to winning the state throughout the Commonwealth of Virginia.

Loudoun County, let's see what's up, okay. We just had another cache in the votes here, you're at 98 percent and Youngkin is hanging on at 44.5 to McAuliffe's 55. Why is that important? We thought that Youngkin would have to score 42, 43, 44 at a minimum now to win statewide.

So in Loudoun County, if you drop him down to 43 percent, he could still win the state based on a lot of these estimates, but so far, with two percent outstanding, Youngkin stands a very good chance of outperforming that vote there in Loudoun County.

And just because we talked about it Tucker, here is Fairfax, the most populated county in the state. You're only at seven and a half percent, so you've got a lot of votes still outstanding in Fairfax.

So it's 8 30 in Virginia, Tucker. Glenn Youngkin has got to be feeling pretty good, but again, this race is going to be tight throughout the entire night. Back to you.

CARLSON: That's for sure, especially those outstanding votes in the state's biggest county. Bill Hemmer, appreciate it.

HEMMER: Sure.

CARLSON: So we don't know what the final outcome is going to be, but it does seem sort of interesting that an analyst at The Cook Political Report is tweeting this right now: "I've seen enough. Glenn Youngkin defeats Terry McAuliffe in the Virginia governor's race." It doesn't mean that's true, it doesn't mean it's happened, but it means people who are following this really closely think Glenn Youngkin is doing better than a lot of people expected. Amazing.

So that will have consequences if it's true. Elections always have consequences. One of the consequences of the presidential election a year ago was the subsequent protest at the Capitol on January 6th, and the consequence of that has been a complete reordering of the way this country works, the way we understand politics, and the way that our civil liberties are protected or stripped from us.

That is the subject of the second episode of our "Tucker Carlson Original" series called "Patriot Purge." We spent months interviewing people who were at the scene then and who have suffered the consequences since for this episode.

The entire thing is available on tuckercarlson.com. We recommend it strongly. Here is a chunk of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: In Iraq during the first war on terror, the U.S. government tore down all vestiges of the previous regime, and then reordered the society from the top to the bottom.

First, our authorities targeted the people who had guns, law enforcement and the military. It looks familiar now.

EMILY RAINEY, FORMER U.S. ARMY PSYCHOLOGICAL OPERATIONS OFFICER: It's very concerning that military service members and law enforcement officers with badges and guns are a target for recruitment by these extremist groups.

RAINEY: The term extremism is being kept nebulous for a reason.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Some of it is opposition to COVID public health rules like mask and vaccine measures, some calls for violent action are based on claims of election fraud or a belief that Donald Trump can be reinstated.

RAINEY: It's so that there is gray area and they can use the term as they like against the people that they like to use it against.

Me, for example.

RAINEY: Fort Bragg is investigating a psychological operations officer who led a group of people from North Carolina to the rally in D.C. that led up to those deadly riots.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So if you see someone putting something that's extremist out there as a fellow Marine, it's now your duty to report it.

RAINEY: It cannot be overstated how dangerous targeting your political opponent is and purging them out of the one place where you are legally allowed to have a gun and use it, government ordered use of weapons.

The danger of that cannot be overstated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: That's Part 2 of our documentary series, "Patriot Purge." What actually happened on January 6th and what's happened since. Part 3 drops tomorrow. We strongly recommend all of them. We're proud of them. They are factual, they are honest, they're corrected for the lies that you have heard.

You can watch them on FOX Nation, of course, you can go to tuckercarlson.com and sign up free. If you like it, again, we'd recommend that you do.

Emily Rainey is the woman you just saw in that clip. She is a former U.S. Army Psychological Operations Officer, a very smart person. She has watched all of this since January 6th.

Emily, thanks so much for coming on. So you spent 10 years in the military, you come from a military family. Your whole world is the military, up until very, very recently when you separated.

Tell us from an outsider's perspective, it looks like January 6 was used as a pretext for a political cleansing of the U.S. military. Do you think that's true?

RAINEY: Also, I can tell you Psychological Operations is supposed to be conducted against foreign audiences. That's the key word.

CARLSON: Yes.

RAINEY: Truly, we could go to jail for using it domestically, so when I watched all of this going down especially in the rhetoric surrounding January 6th, I was like, I'm reverse engineering this and saying this is terrifying.

CARLSON: So you recognized this immediately.

RAINEY: Absolutely.

CARLSON: As a kind of organized propaganda.

RAINEY: Yes.

CARLSON: What do you think the purpose of that has been?

RAINEY: All I can say is, as this continues in the military to include this 60-day extremist stand down hoax, and that's what it was. We don't have an extremist problem in the military.

CARLSON: Right.

RAINEY: We wear the same uniform and we bleed red, white, and blue, together on the battlefield, so there is no division amongst that cohesive unit. But now, there is.

So now, you have conservatives being looked at with suspicion. You have people that voted for Trump who supported their Commander-in-Chief for four years. Now, you're an extremist if you did that, and that's dangerous.

CARLSON: So, I mean, again you grew up in a military family and this is what you've done with your life. You're saying as someone who has lived it that we didn't have an extremist problem in the U.S. military, that was a lie.

RAINEY: Absolutely, but you can see that all of these kind of progressive social agendas are being used in the military almost as some kind of experiment to see what we can do in larger society, because that is what America -- what the United States Military is. It's a mixing pot. It is a melting pot for all ...

CARLSON: Of course.

RAINEY: ... of the United States citizens. So now they're seeing slow purging of conservatives, at least silencing and it's a really scary thought of where that might go.

CARLSON: So the second January 6th happens, people in the incoming Biden administration who haven't even taken their oath yet, but they start talking about how this is the reason that we need to purge the U.S. military of white supremacy. That -- just to be totally clear on this -- that day has been used ever since to transform the U.S. military.

RAINEY: I'll put it this way, during that 60-day stand down, they used a series of vignettes. I was used as a vignette even though I've been cleared of any wrongdoing, I was used as an example by the military in these extremist stand down saying what not to do when in fact the reverse is true.

I did everything right by regulation, by policy, and within my rights, which is precisely why the military could never bring any UCMJ charges against me and they never did, and I separated honorably just as I served.

CARLSON: So, you went to a political rally for a candidate they don't like; therefore, you're an extremist.

RAINEY: Scary.

CARLSON: It tells you everything. Emily Rainey, you played a great role in this documentary. We appreciate it. I hope we see you again.

RAINEY: Thanks, Tucker.

CARLSON: Thank you. Now, we're following the election results in Virginia and New Jersey. There could be some upsets tonight. It's starting to look that way, we don't know, but the early indications are.

Don't forget, Part 2 of "Patriot Purge" available now, 90 days of FOX Nation free to everyone watching tonight on tuckercarlson.com. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CARLSON: So all over the State of Virginia, Glenn Youngkin is apparently outperforming expectations to the extent that an analyst with The Cook Political Report with a track record of being right has effectively declared the race for Glenn Youngkin. We are not going to do that. We can't do that. It's not official yet.

And Fairfax County, most significantly the largest and most Democratic county in the State of Virginia somehow doesn't have all of its votes counted. There is going to be some kind of delay according to the McAuliffe Campaign.

But again, we know that Glenn Youngkin is outperforming Donald Trump across the state. Some Members of Congress are already congratulating him, so the question is why has Glenn Youngkin done so much better than any Republican has a right to do in a very Democratic state that Joe Biden just won by 10 points?

Well, there are a lot of reasons. Joe Biden is collapsing, the country is in trouble. The teachers unions have destroyed your kid's education, but immigration is also a factor in this race. The opening of the borders, the surge of foreign nationals into this country, that has affected how people vote.

Now, the Biden administration is saying, they are going to send $450,000.00 to every illegal immigrant who has been traumatized by our immigration laws, reparations for illegals, hard to believe that's real, but it is.

Robby Starbuck is running for Congress in the State of Tennessee. He joins us tonight to assess what we are watching in Virginia. Robby, thanks so much for coming on.

I mean, this has got to be -- and again, this race has not been called, but clearly, it is trending Youngkin. This has got to be good news for you and every Republican who is hoping to prevail in the midterms a year from now.

ROBBY STARBUCK (R), TENNESSEE CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: Absolutely. I mean, you can see -- I wasn't planning on smiling as we talked about this $450,000.00 per individual that comes over here illegally crossing into our country, but clearly, these issues are resonating and surprisingly to the Democrats, indoctrinating children is also not popular, and I think that's going to reflect tonight in the results.

CARLSON: Well, that's kind of the thing that I keep -- you know, typically a party, if it has a dark agenda is still is stealthy about it. They don't go out on stage and say, "Hey, shut up parents. They are our children now. You have no right to weigh in on your own kid's education." We're going to give a half a million dollars to illegal aliens in reparations, like they don't say this stuff out loud. Why are they saying this all out loud?

STARBUCK: Well, you would think that that they shouldn't do that, but we've gone past decades of subtlety. At a certain point, authoritarian leftists, they have to step out and they have to reach to grab total control, because once they grab total control, there is no going back. They've done that now.

So, they've reached this point where they are willing to be out in the open and just be totally overt about it, because this group of people have total contempt for our country. They really do for the American people, normal everyday people. They have nothing but contempt for them.

CARLSON: Amazing. Robby Starbuck. I appreciate it. Thank you for coming on tonight. We'll be following your race closely.

STARBUCK: Thank you, Tucker.

CARLSON: So, we're also hearing -- and again this is not confirmed. No one is calling any races on this show, that's for sure, but we're hearing it could be a good night for all three statewide Republicans running in Virginia, and again, you just cannot overstate what a departure from the expected this is.

Once again, Joe Biden just won this state by 10 points. It was considered a flat out blue Democratic state. So the question is why is this happening? Crime appears to be an issue. Most people kind of liked their society, they don't want to see it disintegrate.

Vince Coglianese has been covering this from across the river in Washington, D.C. where he is a leading radio show host. He joins us tonight with his analysis. Vince, thanks a lot for joining us.

So crime is an issue in this race, is it not?

VINCE COGLIANESE, RADIO SHOW HOST: Yes, it absolutely is and what you're seeing is demoralized police departments at the hands of Democrats across the state, certainly in Northern Virginia and that played a role here as you saw police officers and Sheriffs deciding to side with Glenn Youngkin because they believe and the communities that they serve believe that Youngkin and the Republicans that are at the top of the ticket in this statewide election are going to be protecting these communities.

So like a lot of communities around the country where Democrats have had control, you've seen more violence, you've seen more homicides, and you see communities that were left less safe. And so now, public safety is absolutely one of the factors that played into what I think were a lot of voters showing up to the polls today in Virginia.

CARLSON: I remember, it was four years ago in the governor's race then Democrats mocked the idea that there might be something wrong with MS-13. Nancy Pelosi came to their defense calling them children of God. I wonder, at what point do Democrats understand that people don't really like MS-13 or other violent machete-wielding street gangs? They don't like crime. Why is this a tough lesson to learn?

COGLIANESE: I don't know and this is -- I think the reason this is a tough lesson is because they're so beholden to the donor class that they ignore the concerns of the voters broadly.

CARLSON: Right. That's it.

COGLIANESE: And I think that really is the message of Terry McAuliffe's campaign. Every time he did something buffoonish, the answer was that he was serving some sort of moneyed interest and not the voters themselves.

So as we look back at this race and we compare these two men and then of course, the other people who are down ticket, it's going to be a very straightforward comparison. Who listened to the voters, who responded to their demands, who sought to help heal the wounds that they've endured, and who sucked up to their donors? And the answer to that is really clear, Terry McAuliffe, at every step of this race kept on putting his foot in his mouth on behalf of his donors.

CARLSON: That's right.

COGLIANESE: And you could see him lose as a result of that tonight.

CARLSON: So, is there anybody outside of the teachers union's world who does not consider Randi Weingarten just repulsive? Like why would you put Randi Weingarten on stage for your final rally? I mean, that just -- doesn't that just tell you it's only about the donors if you're putting Randi Weingarten on stage?

COGLIANESE: Yes, it's an act of total self-sabotage. I couldn't believe that Terry McAuliffe would do that. I mean, you look at these polls including from places like "The Washington Post," they say education is the number one issue and your opponent, Glenn Youngkin has the edge. The answer to that is not bringing out the person who made parents miserable over the course of the last 18 months and that's what Terry McAuliffe did.

He brought Randi Weingarten out, and once again stuck his thumb in the eye of parents and parents today apparently responded in force. They decided, you know what, I'm going to show up and I'm going to change who is in charge in Virginia. Again, we'll see how these results go, but things are looking very good for Glenn Youngkin.

CARLSON: Yes. I mean these are people who don't have kids in Virginia public schools, in one case don't have kids at all, lecturing parents about how they don't have a right to control their own kid's education. Like the hubris here is -- it's crazy. They're crazy, these religious nuts, obviously.

And I hope they suffer.

COGLIANESE: It's completely out of control. It's completely control, and by the way, just let me add just one more point. The early vote here started on the 17th of September and we didn't get that debate until the 29th where Terry McAuliffe said out loud that parents shouldn't be telling schools what they should teach. That's a sign that early voting should not be that long.

After Terry McAuliffe said that, I guarantee you, there are Democrats who regretted their vote in the Commonwealth.

CARLSON: I bet that's true. Gosh. Vince Coglianese, great to see you tonight. Thank you.

COGLIANESE: Thank you, Tucker.

CARLSON: So somewhere at the beginning of COVID, Phil Murphy who is a finance creep and Governor of New Jersey decided to crown himself king. He is now god of New Jersey. He is up for election, that's really a formality in New Jersey where dead people vote in large numbers but what's interesting is that this guy who is a part of the Democratic machine might not be doing as well as he should in a state that's controlled by the Democratic machine.

Remember, this is the same governor who told us that the Bill of Rights isn't really relevant to his job.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: The Bill of Rights as you well know protects Americans' right, it enshrines their right to practice their religion as they see fit and to congregate together to assemble peacefully. By what authority did you nullify the Bill of Rights in issuing this order? How do you have the power to do that?

GOV. PHIL MURPHY (D-NJ): That's above my pay grade, Tucker, so I wasn't -- I wasn't thinking of the Bill of Rights when we did this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CARLSON: "I wasn't thinking of the Bill of Rights." I mean, certainly he wasn't and Ian Smith can confirm that. He is a citizen, a taxpayer. He is a gym owner and Phil Murphy, the finance thug has been trying to crush him since the very beginning of this pandemic, he joins us tonight on the eve of a potential humiliation of Phil Murphy that I know that you're praying for.

Ian, thanks so much for coming on.

IAN SMITH, CO-OWNER, ATILIS GYM: How are you, Tucker?

CARLSON: So, I every time we talk, I deeply enjoy it, every time, but I think why do people in New Jersey put up with this guy?

SMITH: You know, it's a question that I think a lot of people are asking throughout the State of New Jersey. You know, we have -- to date, we have 291,000 people who have stepped foot inside of our facility and pretty much every single person says that same question, so that brings up a lot of concerns with the New Jersey voter about the legitimacy of our voting system and why this keeps happening and people like Phil Murphy seem to be untouchable in the state when nobody seems to like him.

CARLSON: He hasn't crushed you. Every time you come on this show, I always think I cannot believe Ian Smith is still here. I expect you to be in prison or something or I don't know, in shackles.

SMITH: He is certainly trying.

CARLSON: Yes, so how have you -- you're the only person we've interviewed for a full year and a half who has resisted unconstitutional efforts to shut down your civil liberties and you're still here. How have you done that?

SMITH: Because the people support what we did at Atilis Gym and that was a wild card for Phil Murphy and the attention that we garnered both in the media and on social media and just with the public, not only in New Jersey, but around the country allowed us to be insulated from anything he threw at us.

They tried everything they possibly could to shut down one small gym and they have failed miserably, just like most of their policies regarding COVID and running the State of New Jersey.

CARLSON: I can't resist asking this, it's not election related, but now that we have the numbers on physical fitness and weight, obesity being one of the main comorbidities for COVID, do you feel vindicated? I mean, you've insisted on keeping a gym open for the length of this pandemic. You had the right public health guidance, it looks like now.

SMITH: You know, we knew that from the start and that's why we did it very publicly because we wanted to show the world that the public health strategies that our officials were putting forth were horrible and they were the exact opposite of what people should do to be healthy in a world where there are potential threats to your health, both things that you can control and both things that are somewhat out of your control.

CARLSON: Well, one thing you can control is being healthy and you made it possible for people to do that. Anyway, I think you've taken a really heroic stand and I'm glad that you prevailed, no matter what happens to Murphy tonight.

Ian Smith, great to see you.

SMITH: Thank you. Thank you very much.

CARLSON: Boy, it is looking really like an upset. We can't call it. I mean, there's something going on in Virginia, so we're going right back to Bill Hemmer, who is a deeply responsible person who has real numbers at his disposal.

HEMMER: I don't know about how responsible, yes, but we'll give it a shot, Tucker. Good evening again just to let you know where we stand. We're at 64 percent of the statewide voting on the screen and Youngkin is hanging onto a 55-45 lead right now.

I'll show you just one county down here, this is the area of Richmond, again, Washington, D.C. is up here, Northern Virginia counties here. Richmond is yet to report, but this is Henrico County. Why am I pointing that out? This has been blue for a long time, a considerable time. We've got almost 97 percent of the vote and Terry McAuliffe is getting 54 percent of the vote. That would be good for the Democrats.

But if you went back and looked at 2017, you see that Ralph Northam was up about 60 percent, so in this Democratic county alone at the moment, McAuliffe is underperforming. Why do I bring that out? Because this is the pattern we're seeing in so many places across the state where Youngkin is doing better or he is hitting the number that he needed to hit in order to get victory here.

Can't call it just yet, but at 55-44 we're getting closer here in Southwestern Virginia. He is running up the numbers. We expected that, not as many votes as you find these suburbs, in these northern counties here. I'll just check in Loudoun while we have a minute right now. Here you go, Tucker. Ninety-nine percent of the vote is in, McAuliffe at 55 percent. Remember Youngkin had to get a minimum of 41 percent. That was his floor. Others expect it to be a little higher than that, but he is performing very well in Loudoun County.

So, that's the picture as we see it right now. If you're in the Glenn Youngkin camp, you're pretty happy with the results thus far. It's not over, but he did some things right in this election. We can say that 11 months removed from a Joe Biden 10-point victory.

And by the way, Republicans feel like they can take the Lieutenant Governor and the A.G. spot as well tonight. But we'll see in time whether or not that becomes official. Tucker, back to you.

CARLSON: Incredible. It was back in August that Bill Kristol endorsed Terry McAuliffe. We should have known then. Of course, that's the kiss of death. Bill Hemmer, thanks so much for your updates throughout the hour.

HEMMER: You've got it, Tucker.

CARLSON: I appreciate it. So Charlie Hurt is the opinion editor of "The Washington Times," more significant, he is a son, a generational son of the Commonwealth of Virginia, deeply knowledgeable of its politics, culture, and people. He joins us tonight on the eve of what looks like a pretty big moment.

Charlie Hurt, what do you make of this?

CHARLIE HURT, FOX NEWS CHANNEL CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, I think it is pretty astonishing and I think what we're looking at right now, Tucker, is a return of sanity to politics.

CARLSON: Yes.

HURT: I think the real lesson for tonight could be that we are seeing finally, at long last, the death of racist politics in America.

CARLSON: Yes.

HURT: Finally, you had a guy and of course the way we got here was things had to get so bad that you had to have a guy come along call out the fact that you have schools poisoning our children with racist nonsense and say, you know what, this is not American, and you know what, parents don't want this. And of course, the reaction to that is people like Terry McAuliffe says, shut up, parents shouldn't have any role in this and the voters say, no, actually, you know what, we do have a role in this and we are going to blow the doors off of this thing and return sanity to politics in America.

CARLSON: Well, so I keep thinking about that -- I've been thinking about you, I mean, not to embarrass you, but I happen to know you live in a multiracial community in Virginia, it is a multiracial state and people seem to get along pretty well actually. They don't need to have stuff ground in their face day in and day out. Why are they constantly picking the wounds that are healing?

HURT: Because it is very effective in politics. It turns out that if you can't have a free and fair debate or an open debate about something, things go really bad. So if every time you open your mouth, your opponent says, "You are a racist. You are racist."

CARLSON: Exactly.

HURT: It turns out, that's really not a hospitable way to have a conversation. But you are right, Tucker. You know, you go into a hospital in regular normal Virginia, and you have people of all races, all creeds, everything working together to help somebody, to help a patient for example.

CARLSON: Yes.

HURT: There is none of this stuff. But as soon as you turn on the TV, you turn on CNN and you listen to this, you listen to people like Terry McAuliffe, and would think this is the most racist place on Earth. It's not.

People are sick and tired of it, and I haven't seen exit polling, but I guarantee you, we are going to find, there were a lot of Democrats who came out and said, you know what, I'm sick and tired of this stuff. It is all a distraction for the failures of Democrats, especially in big cities. This is a distraction, and we are going to put this stuff to bed once and for all.

CARLSON: Yes. It is such a disgrace and so cynical, so deeply cynical. Charlie Hurt, I hope this is a big victory for you and for the state.

HURT: So cynical.

CARLSON: Great to see you tonight. Thank you.

HURT: Yes. Thanks, Tucker.

CARLSON: Amazing, amazing. Very clear at this point that Glenn Youngkin has the advantage in this race. It has not been called, but it looks like potentially Republicans can sweep all three statewide offices, which is just absolutely incredible.

So after this night is over, we recommend you go watch "Patriot Purge." Our second episode out today. Episode 3 be out tomorrow. It is all on tuckercarlson.com.

Election night continues with the Great Sean Hannity. We'll see you soon.

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