The politics of Trump's economic pressure campaign

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The politics of Trump's economic pressure campaign

Trump administration hits Russia, Turkey with new sanctions; analysis from the 'Special Report' All-Stars.

This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," August 6, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): Even though there is no problem with Turkey's macroeconomic data or production power or employment levels, or banking system, we're subjected to artificial waves of financial instability.

CHRISTIAN WHITON, FORMER STATE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Really what the market is reacting to is a big change in the way Turkey is treated by the United States. We said no, they're a NATO ally. We don't want to push them more towards extremism. Well, they are going that way anyway. And so Donald Trump has finally created a reckoning for them, and it's going to hurt.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

MIKE EMANUEL, FOX NEWS: There's some questions whether this is a negotiating tactic or whether this is backing Turkey into a corner. Take a listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)

HEATHER NAUERT, STATE DEPARTMENT SPOKESWOMAN: The United States government has determined that sanctions can be a very effective tool in trying to bring various governments to the table to negotiate with us or try to encourage countries to comply or to return to a better set of behaviors.

RECEP TAYYIP ERDOGAN, TURKISH PRESIDENT (through translator): We are cooperating with all countries as long as we have common interests. And when we don't, we try to solve issues through negotiations. However, when it comes to cornering Turkey and attempting to make it give up, it's different.

(END VIDEO CLIPS)

EMANUEL: With that let's bring in our panel: David Catanese, senior politics writer for U.S. News and World Report; Morgan Ortagus, national security analyst and co-founder of Go Advisers, and Tom Rogan, commentary writer for The Washington Examiner. Tom, your thoughts on U.S.-Turkish relations at this point.

TOM ROGAN, WASHINGTON EXAMINER: On the border of a crisis or in a crisis. And I think the challenge for the Trump administration is as much as they see real tangible problems with Turkey, the purchase of a very advanced Russian air defense system alongside the F- 35 is the big issue, but also the issue with Pastor Andrew Brunson.

There is the concern that because of Erdogan's political structure, in his government, for example, he requires the support of an ultranationalist political party to maintain his essentially governing capacity. And they will be pushing him very hard behind the scenes to say this is why you need to be tough, stronger with Putin. They had a phone call today, Erdogan and Putin. So the question is how much can you push without losing that Turkish influence in NATO and having Putin suck Turkey into his border strategy for the Middle East?

EMANUEL: Morgan, great to have your expertise on the panel tonight. Your thoughts on U.S.-Turkey relations at this point?

MORGAN ORTAGUS, NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: So the situation between the U.S. and Turkey, this has been going on for years. And I think what we have seen has been culminating in weeks of behind the scenes discussions between the two administrations not just about the release of the pastor, Pastor Brunson, but also there is U.S. embassy members, Turkish citizens, who have been work for the U.S. embassy for at least 20 years who are in jail who were swept up in these arrests.

So I spoke to a member of Congress today who has been speaking with the president about this. And I think President Trump is digging in his heels on this. And what Erdogan needs to decide is Turkey is politically, culturally, economically in the center of what's going on and sort of global chaos. And they're really going to have to pick a side. They're playing sides with the Russians, with the Iranians, keeping foot in NATO. And at some point Erdogan is going to have to decide who he is and who he is going to side with. And I think playing all sides is not going to work for him much longer.

EMANUEL: Dave, your thoughts?

DAVID CATANESE, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: I just think Turkey's economic mess is really their own fault, even before the sanctions they low interest rates for way too long. They had problems with investment. They are making their own bed. Trump is using a very harsh stick now. I think he is backing them into a corner. And the question is will Erdogan blink.

EMANUEL: One Turkish lira is equal to 16 American cents. That tells you basically they are in deep trouble. Let's get on to North Korea because our time is precious. Thoughts on North Korean sanctions at this stage?

ROGAN: Yes, I think we have seen pressure from the administration, a little tacit symbol by sanctioning the Russians last week, Russia financial cutouts. The big question will be will they do that to the Chinese. North Koreans know this. I think the very positive sign actually is the North Korean rhetoric that has come out in the last few days, much more aggressive again. You want to see that because it shows the U.S. is pushing them on the timeline because you cannot let them get that reentry vehicle done for the warhead. They are doing all this development behind the scenes. So the pressure strategy is back. Good.

ORTAGUS: Yes, the administration, Mike Pompeo, Nikki Haley have made it clear that sanctions are going to remain on the table. The North Koreans have indicated that they perhaps would like to have a peace deal first before they agree to anything. I think what we are still waiting to see is a full reckoning, an accounting of all of their weapons, for them to come forth and be honest, to set forth a timetable. There is still a lot that the North Koreans haven't done. They are continuing to push for a peace deal.

But the real key is going to be what Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley pushed at the U.N. just a couple weeks ago and you just alluded to is will Russia and China continue to implement these sanctions with us. They were the toughest sanctions passed at the U.N. three times. But we're going to have to have the international consensus continue to push them if it's going to work.

EMANUEL: Dave?

CATANESE: So it's been two months since the big heralded Trump-un summit, and I think basically back to where we started. President Trump said dramatic things have been changing. They are already starting to denuclearize. Well, it looks like we are basically at status quo and North Korea is acting as it has for decades.

EMANUEL: We led off with the Iranians firing off a test firing a ballistic missile. Your thoughts on relations with Iran?

CATANESE: This is another developing situation that the Trump administration is going to have to deal with. I think there's going to be more sanctions coming this fall in Iran that are already part of U.S. law. So I think it's going to get tougher for Iran. I think that is going to be a more precarious situation.

And now you have all these situations are interconnected because you have Iran talking to North Korea saying don't trust President Trump. I mean, all these can ricochet, and I think that's the danger.

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