Retailers brace for start of holiday shopping season

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Retailers brace for start of holiday shopping season

With overall consumer confidence on pace for its best year since 2000, will we see more spending this season? Insight from retail watchers Marshal Cohen and Vera Gibbons.

This is a rush transcript from "Your World with Neil Cavuto," November 22, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

CHARLES PAYNE, GUEST HOST: Attention, all shoppers and travelers, get ready for the holiday rush at the stores and the skies and on the roads.

Hello, everyone. I'm Charles Payne, in for Neil Cavuto.

Happy Thanksgiving. And this is a special edition of "Your World."

And while you're finishing up that feast, some of America's biggest retailers at least one hour away from opening up and looking for a strong economy to boost everyone's holiday cheer. And after the shopping comes the traveling, expected to be the busiest Thanksgiving season ever.

We have got Fox team coverage across the country, with Tracee Carrasco in New York City on the shopping, Casey Stegall in Dallas on the flying, and Hillary Vaughn in Los Angeles on the driving.

First to Tracee, where the clock for retailers is ticking.

Tracee, can you feel the excitement?

TRACEE CARRASCO, FOX NEWS: Yes. Good afternoon, Charles. I can.

It's just about four o'clock -- maybe you have already had an early Thanksgiving Day meal. Maybe you're getting ready to sit down with your family. But, in just about an hour, Macy's here in Herald Square will open up their doors, officially kicking off the holiday shopping season.

The doors are open at 5 p.m. They will close at 2 a.m., then open back up at 6 a.m. on Black Friday. Now, in addition to Macy's, there are already a number of stores, if you can believe it or not, already open this Thanksgiving.

Bass Pro Shops, Kmart, J.C. Penney, and Old Navy, they opened up hours ago. In addition to Macy's opening up at 5 p.m., we have got Best Buy, Kohl's, Target, and then at 6 p.m., Wal-Mart, Sears, Dick's Sporting Goods, and Victoria's Secret.

Now, however, there are dozens of stores, maybe about 70 retailers, who have decided that they're adamant about not opening up their doors this Thanksgiving. They want to make sure their employees are with their families. Same goes for their shoppers.

Those stores that are not opening up today, Barnes & Noble, Costco, Hobby Lobby, Home Depot,, Nordstrom, Sam's Club, T.J. Maxx.

Now, this is always a big debate of back and forth. Should these stores be open, should they not? But many retailers say this is what the shoppers want. They want to come out here after the Thanksgiving meal, after having dinner with their families, and get those deals.

Now, according to the National Retail Federation, this is going to be a big week for shoppers. About 164 million people will be hitting the stores today through Cyber Monday. Today alone, 34 million people expected to be shopping.

This year, holiday sales expected to be up by about 4 percent over last year, somewhere around $720 billion.

Charles, we will send it back to you, wishing you a happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: Thank you very much, Tracee.

Well, we know shoppers have been feeling good heading into the holidays, overall consumer confidence, in fact, on the pace right now for its best year since 2000.

So, will that carry over into more spending this season?

Let's ask retail watchers Marshal Cohen and Vera Gibbons.

Vera, let me start with you.

Those are some hefty numbers that Tracee threw out there.

VERA GIBBONS, SENIOR CONSUMER ANALYST: I think it's going to be pretty good.

I mean, confidence is that an 18-year high, unemployment 50-year low, gas prices at a nice low. So people are feeling really good and it's resulting in a lot of purchases, or will result in a lot of purchases.

I mean, people are buying not only for others, but we're seeing a lot of self-gifting going on this holiday season.

PAYNE: Is that new? Is that something...

(CROSSTALK)

GIBBONS: More of it. We have seen it before, but more of it this year. People are feeling so good, that they're indulging on themselves.

PAYNE: All right, I know what I'm going to -- now I have got an excuse.

(LAUGHTER)

PAYNE: So what do you think, Marshal? This momentum carries us through the rest of the year?

MARSHAL COHEN, RETAIL INDUSTRY ANALYST: There's no question that holiday is an important component to see how the rest of the year is going to shape up.

But we have already got great momentum. A lot of retailers are feeling pretty confident about where they have been, and certainly where they're going. And consumers actually are responding very well to the big deals. Retailers have taken out all the stops, offering up special assortments that are really going to try to entice the consumer.

It's gotten so competitive between online and stores, and then the retailers who do both are really trying to be competitive.

PAYNE: That's what the -- the omnichannel, right? I mean, we see now where some of these brick-and-mortar guys,, we have seen they have gotten their act together. They have figured out how to combine both of these things.

Some are doing delivery. Some are allowing pickup. But it seems to be working now, because we want experiences, right? I mean, you can...

(CROSSTALK)

GIBBONS: Yes.

PAYNE: You can order it online, so you have got to have a reason to go out there. They're figuring this out.

GIBBONS: They're offering these ancillary services.

Like DSW Shoe, for example, you buy some shoes, you go in and get a pedicure, a manicure. Lululemon has got the meditation rooms and things of that nature.

The best example of this, of course, is FAO Schwarz. I mean, they have got the wall of Barbies. They have got the race car track for the kids to play on. They have got the piano. You can -- the keyboard lights up and down.

So, they are rolling out all the punches, and they're getting a lot of traffic.

COHEN: Experiential shoppers now represent 40 percent of the holiday purchase.

PAYNE: Really?

COHEN: It's huge.

PAYNE: Wow.

COHEN: It's gotten to be huge.

It's not -- the rate is not growing at the same rate. The other interesting dynamic is, we're at an inflection point. We have got to watch this year very carefully to see just how the pure play retailers grow compared to the retailers that are on both channels and recognize, are they actually growing?

Some of the indications are showing this might be the year where stores like Target and Wal-Mart actually beat some of the big boys in the online world in growth.

PAYNE: Really?

COHEN: So, this is going to be a very interesting year.

PAYNE: That would be very interesting.

It's so funny, because Amazon, when they reported earnings, they actually lowered their guidance for the fourth quarter. People took it as an indictment of holiday shopping. But others said, no, that's competition.

So the brick-and-mortar guys not only survive. We're starting to go there in droves, huh?

GIBBONS: Yes, exactly right.

So Amazon rolling out the free shipping was the, woo-hoo, everybody, right?

COHEN: Well, and you look, all of a sudden, November 1, everybody was offering great deals, free shipping. Couple of stores even offered, said, we're going to counter with free shipping earlier than ever.

And, remember, that erodes margin, because that's something that they didn't necessarily plan for. And it's a cost of operating expense.

GIBBONS: Well, that is why Wal-Mart's not doing it. So, they still have a $35 minimum purchase thing, but Target has said free shipping and some of the other retailers have been forced to following suit, because if you look at all the surveys that are out there, the one thing people don't want to pay for, shipping.

PAYNE: What is the key?

We got a minute left.

What's the one key? Because now on top of -- we have seen wage growth. We have got seven million job openings. People have to be relatively secure in their jobs. But all of a sudden, gas is going down like crazy. I mean, what's the key that will make this really a super holiday season? Or is it just sort of all of the above?

COHEN: It's really about the lack or the amount of innovation in product.

Impulsive purchase is a huge part. Self-gifting, as you mentioned early up front, is a very early part. So right now, as we go through Thanksgiving today, it's really about self-gifting and the deals. Then it moves into the gifting things.

PAYNE: Right.

COHEN: But if there isn't new and exciting and innovative products to both create the desire for you to buy for yourself, as well as add on additional gifts, that's what's missing.

Lack of innovation may be the key to not getting huge growth in a really economically advantaged period.

(CROSSTALK)

PAYNE: Real quick, Vera, let me have your final thought.

GIBBONS: Well, the online -- if you're shopping online, I mean, the key there is just to keep it simple, keep it streamlined, keep it convenient.

So I think the retailers this year in particular, they are making sure it's fast, it's seamless, people can check out right away, there's not going to be any problems. I mean, they're rolling out all the punches.

I mean, this is when they get like 20 percent of their sales for the year or something?

COHEN: Could be more.

GIBBONS: Could be more.

COHEN: Some categories like...

(CROSSTALK)

COHEN: ... could do 40 to 50.

PAYNE: I have got permission to self-gift.

(LAUGHTER)

GIBBONS: There you go.

PAYNE: Thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Thanks a lot.

Well, coming up: to the turkeys in Congress. Will Americans be giving thanks for a divided government in Washington, or will the threat of investigations from Democrats in the House gobble up a lot of the economic progress?

And later, the state of Georgia, the governor's race is over -- why someone, though, may want to tell Hollywood.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: A new Congress taking shape, as the Democrats gain control of the House and Republicans add to their majority in the Senate.

Will they be able to work together and get things done?

To The Washington Examiner's Philip Wegmann.

Philip, some lawmakers talking up bipartisanship, but can they really make it happen?

PHILIP WEGMANN, COMMENTARY WRITER, THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER: Well, that's the question for Nancy Pelosi or whoever actually picks up the gavel, because if you're House Democrats right now, you basically have two avenues to pursue.

Either you can go the legislative route and actually get some work done in the House, but that risks increasing President Trump's stock as a sort of dealmaker. Or you can go the investigative route, which is -- which I expect Democrats to pursue, and you unify the liberal base, but at the risk of sort of galvanizing pro-Trump conservatives ahead of 2020.

Either way, what we're going to see coming out of the House is the tone that we're going to see in 2020.

PAYNE: Well, the tone has certainly picked up.

Maxine Waters making no...

WEGMANN: Right.

PAYNE: She's like, I'm going to go after everyone, particularly anything associated with President Trump, long, by the way, before he actually became president. She wants to find out his dealings with Deutsche Bank

Jerry Nadler, same sort of thing. And so you have got these older established Democrats who have seen what's happened in the past. They know it's a risky political move, whereas the upstarts, the Alexandria Ocasio- Cortezes of the world, maybe they just don't know. They're like bulls in a china shop, and they just want to create havoc.

Yet both sides seem intent on doing just that.

WEGMANN: Right, because there are a lot more progressives in the liberal - - the liberal Democratic Caucus than there are sort of Blue Dog Democrats.

So my expectation is that, yes, they're going to push oversight as much as possible, and they're really going to try and weaponize the subpoena, to try and make -- try and make Trump sweat ahead of 2020.

The question for Republicans is, how do they want to respond? Are they going to continue with a nice guy sort of shtick like we saw out of Paul Ryan, who is the lovable policy wonk, or Kevin McCarthy, who is the affable friend of everyone in Congress, or are they going to respond like Newt Gingrich would have, and really bring the hammer down?

The one thing that Republicans have as an advantage, though, is not since the advent of the Freedom Caucus are they going to be able to enjoy the sort of unified opposition here. So, the question is, how are they going to respond to all of this?

And I think that they have an opportunity to unite ahead of the presidential election. And I think that bears well for them when they're playing defense.

PAYNE: What about the wild card of how President Trump responds?

It's been pretty interesting. He has made very positive overtures towards -- towards Nancy Pelosi.

WEGMANN: Right. Yes.

PAYNE: And what if he just sort of plays the nice guy? I mean, listen, the Kavanaugh hearings showed that when the Republicans stand back and just allow this sort of Democratic vitriol to spill over, it works to their advantage.

WEGMANN: It certainly does.

And we could see a repeat of that situation. I have been surprised a little bit with how complimentary President Trump has been to a lot of these different Democratic candidates who have -- who have lost their races. I mean, you saw him complimenting Gillum, and you saw him complimenting Nelson for hard-fought races.

What I think is going to be really interesting is whether or not President Trump leans into the sort of dealmaker, the dealmaker persona that he promised us in 2016.

PAYNE: Right.

WEGMANN: Because, if he does that, and he helps push legislation through, he can kind of goad Democrats into going the legislative route instead of the investigative route.

And I think that this is going to be his strategy, because he offered recently -- perhaps a little bit tongue-in-cheek, but he offered recently to even help whip of votes for Nancy Pelosi to become speaker.

PAYNE: Yes.

WEGMANN: So, if he wants to look like a moderate ahead of 2020, that's going to look very good for him.

PAYNE: And there's certainly things like infrastructure spending that we know near and dear to his heart and should be low-hanging fruit with respect to the Democratic Party.

We will see what happens.

Phil, thank you very much.

WEGMANN: Thank you Charles. Happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: You too.

Stocks already rocky. What will this new Congress mean for your 401(k)? That's coming up later in this hour.

But, first, upset with how Georgia governor's race went down, now Hollywood is urging a boycott of the state. Are these stars just asking for more Republican wins?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Hollywood not happy with the way Georgia governor's race turned out. Now some actors are calling for a boycott.

Actress Alyssa Milano tweeting: "There are over 20 production shooting in Georgia. Is the entertainment industry willing to support the economy of a totally corrupt state that suppresses democracy, where the winner isn't the best choice for the people, but the best schemer or crook?"

Should Hollywood just butt out?

Let's ask conservative commentator Madison Gesiotto and Democratic strategist Cathy Areu.

Madison, what do you make of this?

MADISON GESIOTTO, CONSERVATIVE COMMENTATOR: Hey, happy Thanksgiving to you both.

It's ridiculous. I'm calling their bluff here. I'm sure most of them that are out there preaching against Georgia right now will be shooting there in no time, just like they said in 2016. So many people in Hollywood said they were leaving the United States if Donald Trump becomes president. Guess what? He's been president for two years now. They are all still here, living in the United States of America.

It's the greatest country in the world. Georgia is a fine state, and they're going to shoot there. They're just bluffing.

PAYNE: Cathy, I mean, it seems more and more like these Hollywood stars are spoiled. Just, listen, the election is over. And the votes have been counted, and a winner has been declared.

CATHY AREU, PUBLISHER, CATALINA: Yes, but they do have the right. I mean, that's the beauty of America. They do have the right to voice their opinion.

So, they're going to do so. Alyssa Milano has apparently not stopped since the election. So she's going to keep on going. And why not? If she doesn't agree with the outcome, if they don't agree with the outcome, then don't go to Georgia, no "Walking Dead" for Alyssa Milano.

But Tyler Perry has a production studio there, and they're very successful. That's the number one studio in the country. And they have no plans of moving.

But if Tyler Perry is upset, I know -- I think he's a Democrat, actually. If he's upset, I'm sure he will move his studio. And it's the American way. He can do so if he wishes.

PAYNE: You know, it's interesting.

The industry also gets a billion dollars in tax credits. So, it's not like they're altruistic in all of this, Madison. And it's -- there's a serious economic -- they get some pretty good perks for filming there already.

And, again, I guess Cathy's right. If they want to leave, they can leave. And you can extend this further. If conservative voters don't want to watch their movies, they don't have to.

I mean, I guess we could all go into our own individual sandbox and sulk about all of it.

GESIOTTO: Oh, of course. I mean, everybody has the right to do what they want to do. If they don't want to watch the movies, or they don't want to go a certain place and film the movies, they don't have to.

But yet I think they're just speaking louder than their actions. And I don't think they're actually going to stick to what they're saying here. I think they will film in Georgia, because, simply, there's a lot of films being filmed there that are great films, that are great studios, and people are going to be out there.

And for some of these celebrities that say they're not going to go, guess what? Other celebrities will go in their place. So the films will still get made, and they will still get made in Georgia.

PAYNE: They would also have a hard time, Cathy, explaining to people who work in the film industry there, who might have voted for their candidate, why did you abandon us just because we lost?

And Stacey Abrams herself has asked the entertainment industry not to go anywhere.

AREU: Exactly.

My cousins, actually, the Areu brothers, they are presidents and vice presidents of movie studios down in Georgia. And they left California to go to Georgia. But, if they are liberals, then they will leave and go back to California.

So they -- celebrities...

PAYNE: There's a reason, though, that people left California, right?

AREU: Right.

PAYNE: I mean, I think we have gone years without -- maybe every year, have one movie. There have been some years with zero movies that have been made in California.

The regulations are too high. The taxes are too high. So, I -- you got to really be so upset about this, that you're willing to take a serious financial hit.

AREU: Right, but celebrities, they have the voice and people listen.

So, Alyssa Milano right now, people are listening. So she's speaking. When we're tired of hearing her, I think we're just going to all just stop listening to her.

GESIOTTO: But I don't think that many people are really going to listen, Cathy. When it comes down to it, money speaks louder than Alyssa Milano.

AREU: She still -- yes, but we're talking about her. People are talking about her. So she does have a megaphone right now. And we're listening. So, that's why she's doing it.

GESIOTTO: Well, of course. Of course she has a megaphone.

But when it comes down to making business decisions, I don't think that's the person they're looking to.

PAYNE: Yes, I mean, let's be honest. We saw a lot of stars, a lot of athletes come out for Hillary Clinton. They pressed hard. They campaigned hard. They paid for commercials, and it didn't necessarily get over the finishing line.

It didn't work for Taylor Swift in the midterms either. So, yes, people will listen, Cathy, but I'm not sure that it necessarily moves the needle.

AREU: But at least the conversation is being had.

PAYNE: Yes.

AREU: At least people are looking. Maybe they didn't know what happened in Georgia. So, the conversation is being had.

PAYNE: Yes, people voted, and a winner was declared after all the votes were counted.

Ladies, we're going to have to leave it there. It's always great seeing all of -- both of you, and a happy Thanksgiving. Appreciate it.

GESIOTTO: Thank you.

AREU: Happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: Hey, low gas prices coming at just the right time for holiday drivers. How long will this relief last?

And it's one of the most popular retailers for shoppers, but Senator Bernie Sanders is trying to stop Wal-Mart. How does he plan on doing that?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MIKE EMANUEL, FOX NEWS SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I'm Mike Emanuel in Washington. Here's a look at the latest headlines.

President Trump continues to clash with Supreme Court Chief Justice John Roberts over judicial bias. Today, the president is warning of what he calls bedlam, chaos, injury and death if courts block his efforts to overhaul the nation's immigration laws.

Former FBI Director James Comey says Republicans on the House Judiciary Committee have subpoenaed him to appear before a closed-door meeting next month. Comey says he would rather testify in open session. A published report says former Attorney General Loretta Lynch has also been subpoenaed.

The European Union and Britain have agreed on a draft declaration about the future of their political relations after Brexit. This sets up E.U. approval this weekend. The U.K. and the E.U. agreed last week on a 585- page document sealing the terms of Britain's departure.

Please join me for "Special Report" 6:00 p.m. Eastern. We will do it live -- now back to "Your World."

PAYNE: Think your Thanksgiving table is jammed? Then get ready for the airports this weekend, where officials are expecting a record surge in air travel.

To Casey Stegall at the Dallas Fort-Worth International Airport on the holiday rush -- Casey.

CASEY STEGALL, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles. Good to see you.

Get this. About 829,000 passengers will travel right through here, the DFW Airport, for the Thanksgiving holiday. That makes it the fourth largest in the country in terms of passenger traffic.

And airport officials here at DFW tell us that is up about 4 percent this year compared to last. And, in fact, same story really across the board for all U.S. carriers. According to the TSA, an estimated 30.6 million are expected to travel by air alone this year, compared to 29 million in 2017.

So we all know that that can inevitably translate into long lines, packed planes, and those delays or cancellations, though I have got to say folks that we have talked to out here say it is just part of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it's gotten a little bit better. At least the facilities are nicer. So if you get stuck in an airport, sometimes, it's OK. But it is what it is. You're traveling. You got expect those things.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It is the point of the holidays. And, yes, if you want to get home, get to family, you want to eat, yes, you're going to bear the...

STEGALL: Oh, I love it. So it's an adventure.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's an adventure, yes. Memories.

STEGALL: OK, cancellations and all?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEGALL: I have to try and channel that good energy when my next flight is canceled, look at it as an adventure.

A bit more good news to pass along. If it feels like you're paying a lot for airfares, you're wrong. According to data by the Department of Transportation, airfares remain actually at historic lows, when adjusted for inflation, in fact, a 5 percent decrease year over year, Charles, in airfare prices since 2010, actually -- back to you.

PAYNE: All right. Of course, we won't...

STEGALL: And happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: Thanks a lot. We won't talk about the bag fees, though.

STEGALL: Yes.

PAYNE: Casey, thanks a lot. We will keep that positive energy going.

Well, don't think you're going to get off easy by hitting the road when you head home. But even though you will be hitting some traffic, you will also be giving thanks for those lower gas prices.

To FBN's Hillary Vaughn in Los Angeles with the latest -- Hillary.

HILLARY VAUGHN, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles.

Well, more people -- more people are headed home for the holidays this season because gas prices are low. The price of oil is driving down prices at the pumps, so more people are headed home. According to AAA data, 54.3 million people are going to be traveling in the five days before and after Thanksgiving. That's the highest number we have seen since 2005, and 2.5 million more people than we saw last Thanksgiving season travel.

The average gas price is -- around the country is around $2.60 a gallon and falling. But the price of gas also just had its biggest one-week drop we have seen so far this year. It's not just a cheap tank of gas, though, that's giving people the travel bug.

AAA says consumers have a lot more to be thankful for this season, including higher wages, more disposable income, rising household wealth.

But all that travel does mean more traffic. Over 48 million Americans will road-trip to their turkey. If you are driving to your destination, be prepared to face a commute four times longer than normal in some cities.

Now, for the trip back home, Google Maps pooled their data from Thanksgiving travel last year. The worst time to travel is Saturday and Sunday evening. But the best time is at 4:00 a.m. on Friday, when everyone else is still in a turkey coma -- Charles.

PAYNE: All right, thanks a lot, Hillary. Appreciate it.

Well, helping bring down those gas prices, plunging oil prices, off more than 20 percent since the beginning of October. But that doesn't necessarily mean that your heating bills are going to get lower this winter.

To market watcher Phil Flynn in the cold of Chicago.

Phil, what are you watching right now?

PHIL FLYNN, PRICE FUTURES GROUP: Yes, I mean, we're -- we're looking at right now the cold temperatures, and we're seeing record-breaking temperatures for this time of year in a lot of the country right now, Charles.

And this is a concern for the heating bill market that you're going to have to pay. I think what Hillary saved you on the gas tank, you better save it for your heating bill, if this is a forerunner of what we're going to see for the rest of the winter.

I mean, already going into this winner, natural gas prices, where most people expect to heat their home with, basically have seen prices expected to jump by over 5 percent. But what we saw in the futures market last week, because of the early cold, we saw the biggest price spike in over eight years, which means that if this cold weather hangs around, your heating bills could go up by 10 or 15 percent.

Now, we did see that big break in oil, which helps keep heating oil prices down. And those prices probably won't go up quite as much. But I will tell you this. Heating oil supplies are below average for this time of year. And if this weather hang on, I can't guarantee that the prices for heating is going to stay low all winter.

PAYNE: You know, Phil, there's a major supply and demand element when it comes to oil. It's a global commodity.

Is it -- is it more narrow with respect to natural gas? Is that one of the reasons why you're seeing this spike?

FLYNN: It really is.

I mean, here in the U.S., Charles, we have been kind of taking natural gas for granted, because we're the biggest producer in the world now, which something we thought was impossible just a few years ago.

But now, because we have been so prolific in producing it, we're using a lot more of it. We're exploiting a record amount of it. And we have been complacent when it came to building supplies for winter.

This winter, we just assumed that supplies were going to be above average going into winter because we were producing so much. We didn't stop to think that the economy was on fire, and we were using a lot more.

PAYNE: Right.

FLYNN: And we never really built up those supplies.

So when winter hit, all of a sudden, prices spiked.

PAYNE: All right, Phil Flynn, stay warm, my friend. Appreciate it.

FLYNN: I will. Thank you.

PAYNE: Well, first, it was Bernie vs. Bezos over the minimum wage. Now Bernie Sanders is taking on America's number one employer, Wal-Mart -- why it could mean higher prices for everyone.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: As Wal-Mart gets ready to open its doors in a few hours, independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders as readying something else.

Sanders unveiling the Stop Wal-Mart Act, which demands that the retailer raise its minimum wage to $15 an hour, up its sick pay, and cap CEO pay.

Dan Geltrude says this will backfire on workers and shoppers. But Democratic strategist Robin Biro supports the effort.

Dan, let's start with you.

How -- how does this work in the system? That's a lot of pay raises.

DANIEL GELTRUDE, GELTRUDE & COMPANY: Yes, it really is.

And you know what? There's something hidden in all this, because the easy way of looking at this, Charles, is to just say, hey, the lowest level of workers are going to get an increase in pay. Isn't that great?

Well, not so fast, because you have to think of wage compression. So if somebody's making $7.50 an hour, they go to $15, OK, what do you do with the people that are making $15? Now they go to $30? I don't care if it's Wal-Mart or any other company. You cannot afford to be doubling your wages across the board, Charles. It's not going to work. It's going to lead to inflation.

PAYNE: Although, Robin, you can see where Bernie Sanders may feel like he's got a wind in his sails. He proposed the BEZOS Act, and, right away, Amazon upped their minimum wage to 15 bucks.

ROBIN BIRO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: He sure did.

And I have been a frequent critic of Bernie Sanders, but each time he makes me eat humble pie. So as everyone's gathered around their tables, here I am right now eating humble pie, because the numbers work out.

Here's why. When he did that to Amazon, it's because, if they were only paying their workers -- the federal minimum wage right now is $7.25 -- they're -- those workers are making so little, that's actually below the poverty line. So they're having to use government assistance programs.

So then the taxpayers are having to foot the bill. So why not give these people a living wage and get them off of federal assistance programs, Charles?

PAYNE: Dan, what do you say that?

GELTRUDE: Well, it doesn't work that way, Charles, because minimum wage is not designed for people to be supporting their families.

Look, it would be great if they could, but it's not designed to be that way. What it's designed for is to start off your career, to start off on your path. And then you get more training, you get more education, and you move up along the ladder there.

It's not meant to be supporting of families. It's just not built to be that way. You have got to get more out of your career.

PAYNE: Robin, it is a slippery slope, when the government or anyone else starts to determine what a so-called livable wage is, and determining that a company should pay that out, because, if Wal-Mart pays it out, their smaller competitors are going to pay it out.

And I think there's been more -- a lot of proof that this backfires, because fewer people end up having a job, particularly those homes where there's a lot of unskilled workers. So, you may have a home right now where you have three people in the house working, earning a living, and then one is pushed out. Net-net, that's not exactly what you're going for, is it?

BIRO: No.

And that's why what he has proposed special typically only pertains to companies with 500 employees or more that are underpaying their employees. Like I said, the minimum wage is $7.25 an hour. That's $15,000 a year. That's just not enough to live on.

And these people are -- like I said, let's get them off -- the primary recipients, according to Bloomberg, a report that they just did, were actually states that supported Donald Trump.

I think that Republicans would be in favor of getting these people off of government assistance programs and giving them a livable wage. And I spoke out against this program, but Bernie showed me the numbers. I have reviewed it. It just makes sense, Charles.

PAYNE: All right, before you respond, Dan, we do have a response from Wal- Mart I want to share with the audience.

"We have increased our starting wages by more than 50 percent in the last three years, and currently have an average hourly total compensation of more than $17.50 an hour."

So we're talking about benefits that these workers didn't have before being added with -- to the wages. And, Dan, that's -- that's pretty powerful stuff right there. It's -- I know our hearts are one thing, but when it comes to real, true economics and counting these numbers, again, it hasn't worked in the past.

And we will see, I think, particularly during an economic downturn, where this could backfire miserably.

GELTRUDE: Yes.

Right now, listen, Charles, with unemployment so low, you don't have to raise the minimum wage, because competition between employers will naturally raise the wages up. So there's no need for this.

And keep one thing in mind. There's a boomerang effect to this. Do you think Wal-Mart or any of these other companies are going to wage -- raise their wages, and there's not going to be any impact on the price of goods? We're going to have inflation. And that ends up hurting people who are at the lowest level of wages the most.

PAYNE: Right.

GELTRUDE: It's counterintuitive. It doesn't work.

PAYNE: Well, you know what? It's a great conversation to have, particularly on Thanksgiving.

Robin, Dan, thank you both very much. Appreciate it.

BIRO: Thank you.

GELTRUDE: Thank you, Charles.

PAYNE: Well, I know one thing. You haven't been giving grace and thanks to the stock market recently. Can anything turn this market around before the end of the year?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) PAYNE: Well, I'm sure you have been talking about this during your Thanksgiving meal, stocks getting rocked.

New worries this week, with technology, trade, and a whole array of things. Are we going to be feeling more pain before the new year?

Let's ask market watchers Danielle Shay and Keith Fitz-Gerald.

Danielle, let me start with you.

An ugly October spilled into November, and now a lot of investors are scratching their heads, and they're really concerned. How concerned should they be?

DANIELLE SHAY, SIMPLER TRADING: Well, it depends what side of the market you're on.

But, for me, I am looking for more downside in this market. We have seen technology lead the market higher most of the year. And, at this point, it's leading it lower. And I haven't seen any signs of that stopping just yet.

PAYNE: You think it's justified, or it's just because the momentum has shifted and that's what's happening?

SHAY: You know, it's a variety of factors.

Yes, the momentum did shift, especially right around the beginning of October. We saw a little bit just really running out of energy, first of all. And I think the justification came in with Q3 earnings season. So, first quarter, second quarter, we saw stocks continuing to trade higher. That was backed by tax cuts.

It was backed by the fact that corporate earnings were strong, guidance was strong. But then what happened was, Q3 came along, and we had a couple of our leading companies announce the fact that they're lowering their guidance for next quarter.

PAYNE: Right.

SHAY: And we also have an effect of tariffs. So I do think it is a little bit justified, but, at this point, it's a little bit more fear-based.

PAYNE: Keith?

KEITH FITZ-GERALD, MONEY MAP PRESS: Yes, I think it's all about internals right now.

To all of her points, I agree with every single thing she just said. However, I also want to factor in the technicals, because you're talking about computers that are making thousands of trading decisions every second.

They're rebalancing against ETF indexes, which is by their very nature a passive investment. So even good-quality stocks are getting carried out feet first.

I'm aware, anecdotally, a number of hedge funds are in big-time margin -- margin call trouble. So this is, sell anything you can, including the kitchen sink. And until that stops, I agree, downside ahead.

PAYNE: Yes.

You know, Danielle, I think the kitchen sink part is pretty interesting and pretty relevant, because while there's people who bought stocks earlier this year on margin, when your losers go down, you have to sell your winners.

And even though, to your point, third quarter, there were some ominous signals, I think Larry Kudlow, who was on the air a lot this week talking about the economy, talking about going forward, I think he's pretty spot on.

We have had an enormous run in this economy. We will have 3 percent growth for the first time, I think, since 2005. That's not going to completely vanish overnight.

SHAY: No, and that's true. It's not going to completely vanish overnight.

But going back to the kitchen sink, I mean, selling begets more selling. And at some point, it doesn't really matter, because when people just start selling all of their positions, regardless of what is actually going on, you just get a waterfall cascading effect, which is really what we have seen this Thanksgiving week.

PAYNE: So, no Santa Claus rally for Danielle?

(LAUGHTER)

SHAY: Well, I think if there is a Santa Claus rally, there's going to be one of two catalysts. It could be, number one, a short squeeze, right?

If everyone is trading to one side of the market, and everyone gets so bearish, then, at that point, we could have some buyers coming in. But it's going to have to be buyers on high volume that can actually move this trend higher.

PAYNE: Right.

SHAY: The second thing could be a surprise, for example, if the Fed doesn't raise interest rates, or any positive news with China that actually goes through.

Those two things, I think, could be a catalyst to move higher, but...

PAYNE: Well, Keith, we got the G20 meeting coming up. President Trump means with President Xi.

And then, of course, the Federal Reserve will meet, and there will be a lot of pressure on them to articulate their message now. October 3, Jay Powell made some comments that I think triggered this avalanche. And maybe they will step up to the plate and make some comments that can maybe give us some calm out there.

FITZ-GERALD: Well, you know, Charles, I agree with that, and have for a long time.

I think the Fed has been off the proverbial map. I think they lost control a long time ago. I think we simply lurch from one crisis to the next, and this is no exception.

The Fed seems to like talking, except at the moments when it's very most needed. I think they could have a few well-placed comments about walking back their damn-the-torpedoes, raising-interest-rates approach, even if they're not official, and fix this in about 90 seconds.

If there's even a hint of an agreement in China, maybe something as serious as, hey, these two were seen talking to each other, and they were smiling, that might begin it well.

But we have got to have that high-volume, high-piece buy, come back in. People can't walk away from the bit anymore. And that's going to change the computers, which, in turn, then become a self-fulfilling circle.

PAYNE: Well...

FITZ-GERALD: It's a complicated, counterintuitive series of events, but a rally is still possible. And you buy low, sell high. That's how the game is played, so I'm looking for it.

PAYNE: Well, I will ask you the same thing I presented to Danielle.

A Santa Claus rally? Can we end the year on a positive note?

FITZ-GERALD: You know, you never say never.

I'm not counting on it. But I'm not ruling it out either, because I have been in this game a long time, and I have seen a lot of strange stuff happen, not the least of which is buying when you least expect it. So you got to be ready.

PAYNE: I will give you one more chance, Danielle. High note, despite the variables, possible?

SHAY: High note? You know, it's possible.

But, honestly, I would rather just stick with some of the picks that I have in health care, because despite the correction that we have seen, health care has remained strong.

PAYNE: Health care has been one of the strongest sectors out there, without a doubt.

Well, you both are great with the markets, but if you ever want to go into politics, I think you might have a shot there as well.

Have a happy Thanksgiving. Thank you both very much.

SHAY: Happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: All righty.

Well, we all have so many things to be thankful for, including the people who keep us safe -- an appreciation next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) PAYNE: One thing we should be giving thanks for this holiday, the veterans who sacrifice so much to keep us safe.

Joining us now on how we can show this appreciation, Lieutenant Colonel Bob Maginnis.

Colonel, thanks for joining us.

It's Thanksgiving, and we all want to say thank you to the vets. How do we do it?

LT. COL. BOB MAGINNIS (RET.), U.S. ARMY: Well, Charles, we first have to remember that our opportunities in this great country come because, since the Revolutionary War, we have had a lot of veterans that have sacrificed - - and their families -- so much for this freedom, this liberty that we have in this country.

So, I think it's first remember think of that. If you see one in an airport, go up and shake their hand. Talk to a vet. There are a lot of people that have served this great country, but they're no longer in uniform. And they need to be recognized.

When was the last time we flew the American flag in front of our home to celebrate the freedoms that we have and those that came before that paid a very dear sacrifice?

And also remember now that we have a half-a-million Americans that are overseas today. And some of them are eating turkey, and some of them aren't. They're going to be having a tough time, because they're in places like Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, on the Polish border with Russia, and so forth, all over the world.

So it's a tough, tough world for them, a lot of risk. And some, unfortunately, will never return.

PAYNE: And some who have returned, I think, have been reminding us, or at least teaching us lessons. And I'm referring to the midterms, where not only did we see a lot of veterans in both parties elected.

But there was a shot taken at the now congressman-elect Dan Crenshaw on "Saturday Night Live" that everyone seemed to be upset about.

It was really, to me, heartening to see the political perspective go all the way from left to right with the condemnation of this act, and sort of a chance to see and maybe a reminder to all of us the kind of sacrifice they make.

Dan Crenshaw, of course, went on "Saturday Night Live" and again exemplified why we -- why we revere our veterans so much, didn't he?

MAGINNIS: Well, he did.

And keep in mind, when we go overseas in some of these hellholes, we are representing the United States of America, every one of our 320 million Americans. We're ambassadors. And we stand tall. We stand for what's right, for the values of this great country.

And that's why we have a lot of respect. It's not because they look on the television and they see glitter and glamour. It's because good men and women have gone all over this world defending their freedom, but as well helping people in dire situations to find their own freedom, their own way to humanity.

PAYNE: Right.

MAGINNIS: And so, yes, we pay a high price, and our families do as well.

And we should thank those veterans for that price that they paid for our freedom.

PAYNE: Do you feel, Colonel Maginnis, that things are getting better for the homelessness issue, some of the suicide issues, some of the other issues that have really clouded, been a dark cloud over our vets?

And we have acknowledged them. I know that this administration has been working very hard toward them. Do you feel like we're making progress?

MAGINNIS: Well, we are making progress, Charles.

And, clearly, the homelessness amongst our veterans and the PTSD epidemic is very serious. But, at the same time, I think Americans ought to take an opportunity. Go to a VA hospital. Do some volunteer work. Talk to those veterans.

Yes, the administration is doing much better, but there's a lot -- long way to go. And, unfortunately, given the tenor of the world today, the next war can't be too far away. So, we need these good young men and women to be prepared, as they are being prepared.

And we need to continue to finance our military. I'm very concerned that, given the competition we now have with China and Russia and elsewhere, we have got to make sure they are -- have the best equipment and they are as ready as possible.

PAYNE: Right.

Yes, an alarming report to Congress last -- last week on just how unprepared we are, certainly to fight simultaneous wars, and even the prospect of Russia and China beating us.

So, just a quick final thought -- we have got a minute left -- to keep this sense of urgency for our veterans.

MAGINNIS: Well, we have to.

After all, the military is about not weapons systems, but it's about the valiant young men and women who go through rigorous training and do the types of things that most of us only imagine.

PAYNE: Right.

MAGINNIS: They have to be sustained.

And, of course, they have to be well-equipped.

PAYNE: Colonel Maginnis, happy Thanksgiving, and thank you for your kind thoughts. We all appreciate it.

MAGINNIS: Well, thank you Charles. Happy Thanksgiving.

PAYNE: All righty, well, that will do it here.

A reminder: You can catch me tomorrow on the FOX Business Network, 2 p.m. Eastern time, for "Making Money."

We hope you're really having a great Thanksgiving, and really appreciate you taking out the time to watch the show.

Now buckle up, because "The Five" is next.

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