Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine continues to form path similar to Hurricane Dorian

A small area of strong storms will move across the central Great Lakes. Heavy rainfall this week across portions of South Dakota and Nebraska is pushing rivers to major flood stage over the next 5 days as runoff continues.

More record heat is possible across the South this afternoon.

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is slightly better organized this morning, but not by much- and still lacks a well-defined surface circulation, so isn’t a Tropical Depression yet.  Since PTC Nine hasn’t formed yet, it is more difficult to forecast where it will go and how intense it could get. 

Our latest best guidance follows a path similar to Dorian over the next 3 days, with a track near the east coast of Florida, moving northward and parallel to the coast.  Gradual strengthening is more likely if PTC Nine takes a more offshore track.  A track into the Gulf of Mexico appears less likely.

Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for the northwestern Bahamas and have also been issued for Florida from Jupiter to Daytona Beach.  This portion of Florida could see Tropical Storm conditions by Saturday evening.

Unfortunately, the NW Bahamas will see gusty winds and heavy rain, which they don’t need as they are still recovering from Dorian.  The longer-term forecast will be dependent on how quickly PTC Nine organizes today and Saturday, along with its ultimate track over the next 36 hours or so.