Pennsylvania voters reveal key factors in their election decision

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Pennsylvania voters reveal key factors in their election decision

Biden backer Eoin Dempsey and Trump supporter Josie Ramos tell 'The Story' which way they see the commonwealth leaning

Oct. 30, 2020 – This is a rush transcript from “The Story with Martha MacCallum” October 30, 2020. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

MARTHA MACCALLUM, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: I think I'll take the extra hour of sleep on Sunday morning though, and I will see you after that. Thanks, everybody. Thank you, Bret. Good to see you tonight, as always. And good evening to you, everybody at home.

As you just heard, President Trump is in Rochester, Minnesota tonight, a state that has not elected a Republican president since Richard Nixon in 1972. And we will see former Vice President Joe Biden in Milwaukee shortly.

And we're going to show you that as well as we await the president.

Geraldo Rivera, Fox News Correspondent-at-Large is with me tonight, Chris Hahn, former aide to Senator Chuck Schumer and syndicated radio host. Great to have both of you with us tonight.

GERALDO RIVERA, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT-AT-LARGE: Thanks, Martha.

MACCALLUM: Although what a whirlwind of campaigning we have been watching over the past couple of days, the president has been hitting three events a day minimum. He's going to do four in Pennsylvania tomorrow. And we're waiting for Joe Biden tonight to appear in Wisconsin as well this evening.

Your thoughts on where we stand tonight, Geraldo?

RIVERA: Well, first of all, for a 74-year-old man, I cannot believe his energy. I mean, this guy is the Energizer Bunny. He is everywhere. He's working so hard. He works the crowds. He's so vivacious in his own way. The problem is the areas that he's hitting, these battleground states of the same states that have been afflicted by this damn Coronavirus, He is haunted by COVID-19. It's like the shadow, the ghost that follows him everywhere he goes.

This is my local paper, The Cleveland Plain Dealer. This is Ohio. You can you see it? It's red. That's a very high exposure and spread level three. I mean, and this is a state that two weeks ago had Trump ahead 48-47, the same poll. Quinnipiac, whatever its bias is, I don't know have Biden ahead by three now. So, I think it's having - I think the disease is having more of an impact than the Democrats.

MACCALLUM: Yes. We're going to actually show that map in a little bit of all the states, all the swing states that are getting hit hard right now, which is obviously very tough timing for the president. We're watching his motorcade pull up. I want to play quickly some Democrats kind of sounding a bit alarmed today at some of the numbers that they're seeing Chris and get your quick thoughts on that as we watch. Let's play it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. DEBBIE DINGELL (D-MI): It's tightening here in Michigan. Some of the auto workers who I thought were going to go back to Joe Biden, they were very clear with me last night, they were voting for President Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is one of the closest calls we've had yet in this election.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Less than encouraging story out of Miami-Dade about turnout. Somebody needs to fix that popped out.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Don't believe these polls, first of all. And second of all, the Trump voters always being undercounted.

DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Where the falloff is appears to be among African American voters. And that is a concern. I think it's one of the reasons why President Obama was sent down to Florida.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MACCALLUM: Chris, what do you make of all that?

CHRIS HAHN, SYNDICATED RADIO HOST: I think there's a lot of post-traumatic stress disorder from 2016 still in the Democratic Party, and I think that's a great thing. I think that's a great thing because that encourages people to work and not to rest and to keep going right through Election Day. I'm looking at turnout numbers, Martha. I mean, Texas has already surpassed where it was in 2016. That can't be good for the incumbent president, in my opinion.

I think if turnout goes over 140 million, which most people are estimating it will. I don't see how this president can get reelected. Geraldo hit the nail on the head. The COVID-19 issue is what's driving this election.

People are sick of it. They don't think the president has done a good job on it. And I'm not one to go out on a ledge with election predictions, but I don't think it's going to be close. I don't think we're going to be waiting that long. And I'm not even so sure that Pennsylvania is going to matter all that much, which we might have to wait for a couple of days for.

So, look, I think - I don't want to count my chickens before they hatch. It could go either way, but we'll see.

MACCALLUM: Look, we've all learned not to make predictions in this. It's going to be very interesting. President Trump taking the stage. We're told that they just want to let everybody know, this is a smaller group. There was a bit of a tussle over this appearance in Minnesota tonight. So, this is going to be a smaller group, about 250 people in the audience. And it's being presented as more of a closing argument speech than a rally. And that's one of the reasons that we want to listen in to this. Sean Spicer, if you want to pipe in here for just a second while we wait for the president to get underway, your thoughts on Minnesota, which is getting a ton of attention right now?

SEAN SPICER, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Yes, look, we have - this is a race to 270 electoral votes. Despite the national polls, the campaigns know this. The president won with 306 electoral votes. He's got 36 to spare. So, the question is, if he can hold Florida, North Carolina, Georgia, then he just needs to find a couple other states to get to 270.

And that's what matters. I think he holds Pennsylvania. He's made up a lot in the voter reg there.

So, you look at Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, even Arizona and those two states, Nebraska two and Maine two, that divide those electoral votes by congressional district. And he gets to 270. That's all they care about now is making sure that they have multiple paths.

MACCALLUM: All right. The president is beginning and we're going to go to Rochester, Minnesota, which was a blue district last time around 2016.

President wants to flip it. Let's listen in.

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I did not forget you because we were given a very, very hard time by your so-called leaders. But they're not very good leaders, as you found out during the riots. And we're going to win four more years in our great White House. Thank you.

As you know, there are at least 25,000 people who wanted to be here tonight, we just saw a lot of them, wanted to pay our respects. They were here for a long time. They waited and waited, and then the governor did bad things. Your Far-Left Democrat Attorney General Keith Ellison and your Democrat governor tried to shut down our rally, silenced the people of Minnesota and take away your freedom and your rights. They thought he would cancel a word they are very familiar with cancel, cancel culture. But I said no way, I will never abandon the people of Minnesota. I will come up.

Thousands and thousands of people over there with cars, we flew over cars that go miles long. What a shame. They waited here for a long time. I want to thank the thousands of people outside who were barred from entry by radical Democrats, you are American patriots. Thank you very much.

When large numbers of rioters and vandals sacked the city of Minneapolis earlier this year, Keith Ellison did not ask them to submit a permit. He told the throngs of violent demonstrators, by all means, exercise your First Amendment rights. He said that prior to them ripping down your city.

Keith Ellison sided with flag burning extremists over law abiding Americans. He treats you like second class citizens. He believes that the pro-American voters have fewer rights than anti-American demonstrators.

Keith Ellison and Joe Biden want to imprison you in your homes while letting anarchist, agitators and vandals roam free as they destroy your cities and states.

The Democrat Party wants you to be banned from peaceful assembly, well, they allow their supporters to burn down a police precinct right here, Biden and the Far Left incite violence with their vile anti-police rhetoric and the fact that they're weak people, very, very weak people.

They allow rioters to lay waste to the public streets that financed, and they were financed by you with your hard-earned taxpayer dollars. The radical left is determined to obliterate the middle class. They think they can take your money, attack your values, indoctrinate your children, and silence your voices.

But on November 3rd, I hope you're listening, Minnesota, because this is what you've had to put up with for a long time. The people of our nation are going to be heard like never before. It's already begun. People are already starting to find out what's happening because they're going to show up and vote in record numbers. And you have already started to see what's going on. And they're getting very concerned. We're not just running against Sleepy Joe Biden. We're running against the arrogant Far Left.

MACCALLUM: We have lost momentarily the signal for President Trump in Minnesota. Watching this along with me, Sean Spicer. There we go, back to President Trump.

Doesn't sound like we have the audio on that, Sean, as we watch this. Talk to me a little bit about the dynamic of Minnesota. You've got the Iron Range area in the northeast corner where Mike Pence, the vice president was the other day, an area that the Trump team has tried to build some support in. What's the path in Minnesota?

SPICER: So, I think right now the president, look, they know they came within a point and just under a point and a half last time, they've got to be able to get those rural counties to turn out. That's what they're hoping on right now. The question is, I don't think the Biden team is sleeping like the Clinton team was four years ago. And the question is, can they bring home enough of those folks?

MACCALLUM: Geraldo, your thoughts as we listen to the beginning of this speech, he went after Keith Ellison, the Attorney General of Minnesota. We all remember you go back in your brain to those horrible days of what happened to George Floyd and what happened after that and the policeman leaving their own precinct, the policemen and women in the third precinct, as it was burned by rioters. Very tough memories for Minnesota. How does that play there?

RIVERA: Interesting, you bring up what happened in Minneapolis, I think that what's happening in Philadelphia over the last few days, certainly at the beginning of the week, reminds people of the disorder and the chaos and the violence and the looting and the rioting. I think that that certainly helps the president.

But one thing that I heard alluded to earlier that I want to expand on just a little bit, this phenomenon whereby black and Latino voters are really - even in the polls that show the president really losing ground among working class white people. The African American vote is ticking up. You see 14, 15 percent, the Hispanic vote I saw at 38 percent in a very otherwise very negative poll for the president.

The highest I remember any Latino vote going was George W. Bush in 2004 getting 44 percent. So, the president's already at 38 percent. I think that the minority vote, ironically, might be what will sustain this president, Martha.

MACCALLUM: I think it's a fascinating point to bring up. And I just want to mention, Chris, one second. I just want to mention to everyone at home that we do not have audio coming from Rochester, Minnesota. And when it's returned, we will bring you back to the president's speech. But Chris, it's so interesting. For so many years, we've heard that the demographics are changing in so many states and that would naturally mean that they would become more Democrat in terms of the leaning in the states. I think of Arizona, even places like North Carolina around the country.

But what's interesting to me is that in some places you're also seeing that those voters are not necessarily adhering to the Democrat Party. Some of them are not, they're expanding the Republican vote for their backgrounds.

What do you say?

HAHN: Well, that's true in Florida. But that's always been true in Florida, where there's a huge Cuban community. In Texas, Donald Trump is losing Latinos, four to one. In Arizona, he's losing it closer to five to one.

Those are states that he needs to hold on to stay president. He's probably going to lose Arizona because of the Latino vote, which is coming out in droves this year. So, while I do think he's made some gains among black and Latino voters, is not significant enough to bring him over the top, especially given the fact that there are so many first-time voters coming out.

People did not vote in 2016 in swing states, there's 11 million people who did not vote in 2016 in the swing states that have already voted in this election. And they are breaking about three to one for Joe Biden, that is an insurmountable problem for the president assuming this trend continues and there's no surprises on Election Day. I find it very hard. I think it's very steep, I don't think impossible--

MACCALLUM: Assuming a lot. Assuming the trend continues and assuming no surprises. Yes. I mean, you can be totally right. And--

SPICER: Martha, can I--

MACCALLUM: Hold on. Go ahead.

SPICER: I'm sorry. I think what has to get reiterated over and over again, one of the things is the president has working to his advantage is this ground game that they've been working on for four years. I was in Ohio the other night. They had staff on the ground there. The Biden campaign has largely pulled out of Ohio. In each one of these battleground states, the president is continuing to go door to door and get people to the ballot, whereas the Biden campaign has gone completely virtual. That, I think, is worth a field goal. And at the end of the day, in these close states, I think that's what's going to pull them over the top.

Democrats have done a great job of - hold on, Chris, of cannibalizing their Election Day voters. They've gotten the same people who vote on Election Day to vote early. That's great. But unless you live in Chicago, one person, one vote, the Republicans are closing the early vote and absentee gap. I think that's what's going to put him in the top.

HAHN: Sean, the stat I just gave.

MACCALLUM: But we should mention once again--

HAHN: The 11 million people who are first, who did not vote in 2016, that's a recent stat that came out about two hours ago, 11 million people that did not vote in 2016 in swing states. And I don't think they're voting for Donald Trump. In fact, the numbers show they're not. And that said, look, the speech that president--

MACCALLUM: No, we'll see.

HAHN: Right now, is pure baseplate. It does not attract any new voters. It does not expand his horizon. It does not help him in Minnesota. I don't

understand--

(CROSSTALK)

HAHN: You're a professional. You know that this is not helping the president.

SPICER: All he has to do is get two second to win.

MACCALLUM: Minnesota is - hold on, Minnesota a very interesting state. And the Trump team, Geraldo had 130,000 door knocks in Minnesota. The Biden team has taken a very different route. If Joe Biden wins, he will be vindicated. It will be clear that that was the way to go.

But when you talk about black and Hispanic voters Geraldo, and what I mentioned before about the changing demographic of places like Arizona and North Carolina and other states as well, how do you think that's going to go? How do you think that's going to split?

RIVERA: Well, I think that first of all, in Minnesota, anything can happen, I'm friends with Jesse Ventura. I took that ride with them. So, anything can happen in Minnesota.

MACCALLUM: Positive.

RIVERA: A wrestler wearing ladies' underwear could get elected, and it's happened, by the way. I go back. I understand Chris's point about Arizona, I'm an Arizona man, a University of Arizona. And I think that more to the point of what at least the semi long range politics of the country is that Hispanic voters are really people, Ronald Reagan used to say that Hispanics were Republicans. They just didn't know it yet. There's very entrepreneurial spirit, very family oriented, very faith oriented.

In Texas, for instance, you have a mature Republican Party with the many, many Latinos. And Texas will, I think, be the presidents. Florida is a fascinating story because traditionally you had the Cubans in the south around Miami who were always conservative and Republican. But now you have all the Puerto Ricans coming from Puerto Rico, which is economically distressed and then settling around the Orlando area. And more and more of them are breaking up people who could make a choice, Republican or Democrat. Back to you.

MACCALLUM: Geraldo, thank you. And we do have the audio back. We're going to go back to Rochester.

TRUMP: People were shocked, I wasn't. The biggest increase in the history of our country by far. 1952. but it was a rate less than half. We are creating an economic powerhouse, a superpower, the likes of which the world has never seen before. We are building the biggest, strongest, and most prosperous middle class in human history. And I am fighting for higher wages, more jobs, more opportunity. And we will keep it right there and we will bring it right here to the USA where it belongs.

Joe Biden has never succeeded before, Barack Obama said that if you want to see things screwed up, just ask Joe Biden to do it. Joe Biden will ship your factories to China, impose a $4 trillion tax hike, eliminate private health care, abolish the entire oil industry and fracking, and send your state into a crippling depression.

Biden's anti-energy anti-worker policies would be a nightmare for Latino and African American workers all across our land. Biden will also continue his 47 years of cruelly betraying African Americans. He called them super predators in 1994, ripped apart their communities and did everything in his power to wipe out the black middle class. And they understand it better than anybody.

And I think you'll probably see that at the voter booth. They understand what he's done better than anybody, super predators, he said. Now Biden wants to wipe out the entire U.S. economy for black Americans, Hispanic Americans, and all Americans. He has no - wants to give you the largest tax in the history of our country by far.

Joe Biden's plan will delay the vaccine, postpone therapies, crash the economy, and shut down our entire country. Under the Biden lockdown, which he talks about and cherishes, countless Americans will die from suicide, drug overdoses and deferred medical care at a level like you haven't seen before. There will be no school, no graduations, no weddings, no Thanksgiving, no Christmas, no Fourth of July, no Easter, no nothing. There will be no future for America's youth.

Under my plan, we will deliver a safe vaccine to the American people in just a matter of weeks, and it will be something that will be very, very special. And we are rounding the turn on the pandemic with or without vaccine. We have the vaccine. It's going to come, but even without it, rounding the turn, seniors will be first in line to get it and it will be available free. It wasn't their fault. it wasn't our fault. It was the fault of China. We should have kept it within their limits.

Our vaccine will eradicate the virus and the pandemic, and it will end quickly restored normal life. That's what we want is normal life. Take us back seven months, normal life record setting everything in a normal life.

And next year will be the greatest economic year in the history of our country.

We will wipe out the China plague once and for all. We're joined today by Congressman Jim Hagedorn and Congressman Tom Emmer. Thank you, fellows.

Thank you very much. Thank you very much. Thanks, Jim, and Tom. Great warriors, they have been with me all the way. And congressional candidates, somebody that's really outstanding. I think you two agree, right? You two agree. Michelle Fischbach. Great job.

I saw you in the debate. You did a fantastic job. Thank you, Michelle.

Great job. State Senator Paul Gazelka. Paul, thank you. Thank you, Paul.

State Representative Kurt Daudt, thank you, thank you, Kurt. I like your hat. And GOP Chair Jennifer Carnahan. Thank you, Jennifer. Are we doing well, Jennifer? I think we're going to win, 1972 and you have been treated very, very badly. In addition, friend of mine, Mike Lyndell, thank you very much. Thank you, Mike. Thank you very much. Great job. Great job.

And former - this is a big one, really. Matt Burke, Minnesota Vikings superstar. Really? Look at him. Look like he could play tomorrow. Thank you very much, Matt. Great honor to meet you.

Another vital issue in this race is the Minnesota Iron Range, I brought it back to life. It was dead. It was closed. It was sealed. And you weren't going to use it for anything. As Vice President Joe Biden tried to obliterate the Iron Range. Seven plants were idled. The rest were closing very shortly and there was barely a whimper. I brought the Iron Range roaring back to life. I have friends that live in Minnesota. They said it was so unfair.

When it was closed, a man came up to me. I don't know who he was, but he was a strong, big, powerful man. And he was crying, and he said, they've taken my life away when they closed the Iron Range, while I opened it, that was the most convincing of all. Everybody wanted me to do it. But when I saw him, I said there's no doubt about it. And it's fully opened and really doing phenomenally, and it has the best iron, they say, anywhere in the world. But you had it close, so it's great. Congratulations.

Congratulations.

It was my honor that area is now thriving, it's thriving, it was desolate, it's now thriving. Nine Democrat mayors in the Iron Range have endorsed me because they know Biden will shut down the Iron Range forever. And by the way, they will shut it down as fast as I opened it up and they'll shut it down permanently the next time. They said we made a mistake; we didn't do it through legislature. We made a mistake. They will shut it down permanently. So, I hope you remember that. I just hope you remember that, especially on November 3rd.

Under my leadership, we achieved the most secure border in American history. Biden's plan to admit unlimited low wage foreign workers will slash income, surge unemployment, and devastate your middle class, all to enrich his globalist donors. He raises money like crazy because he's making deals that giving him millions of dollars. I could raise much more than him, but I don't want to be compromised. I won't be compromised. And we don't need the money. We don't need the money.

That's how they've raised all of that money because they're making deals with Wall Street. As president, I will only advance immigration policies that put American workers and families first. You, the American people, are my only special interest. That's why I did this. And I had a very nice life before doing this, I have to tell you.

I will continue fighting for you harder than anyone has ever done before.

The forgotten men and women of our country will never, ever be forgotten again. And you know that. And you saw that. Four years ago, we had a very, very exciting time. This is even more exciting. And frankly, this is a more important election. And I never thought I'd be saying that.

A vote for me in the Republican Party is a vote for the American dream. So, Minnesota, this is that very important time has finally arrived. This is it. This is the history of our nation. This is a very, very big moment for our country. This Tuesday or sooner, get out and vote. Every one of you, remember what your governor did this evening, and it's a small thing, but a horrible thing to thousands and thousands of people that are outside that could be here, we could all be together. A horrible thing that they did.

Your state and your country depend on you. We depend on your vote. We depend on your loyalty. And you have my loyalty that you know and that you found out. Together, we are going to make history on November 3rd, we're going to make history, and this will be very special for Minnesota. People have been talking about it for years, but it never quite works out, even with me. We lost by half a point. One more stop. I should have come one more time. Just one more time. But you know what? It's not going to matter because we're going to have an even bigger victory on November 3rd.

So, I want to thank you, God bless you. God bless Minnesota and God bless America. Thank you for being here. We appreciate. Thank you. Thank you, everybody. Thank you for having me. Thank you, everybody.

MACCALLUM: President Trump wrapping up a very busy day, ending his day in Rochester, Minnesota, this evening. He's also gearing up for tomorrow when he will hold four rallies in one day, pretty much canvassing the entire state of Pennsylvania. Tom Bevan is going to break down what is at stake there for us. And then we'll talk to two Keystone State voters from red and blue counties. Really interesting to have them with us tonight as well.

We'll be right back with that after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MACCALLUM: We are in the thick of the final days here, so let's take a look at the candidates and where they are spending that precious time in the home stretch. Joe Biden will be in Wayne and Genesee County in Michigan tomorrow, those were both in blue territory yesterday, I mean, last -- in 2016, I should say.

And President Trump plans a huge sweep, big concentration in Pennsylvania.

Four rallies in one day tomorrow. In 2016, he won that state narrowly, according to the polls. He's now down by less than four.

In moments, we will speak with two Pennsylvania voters and we'll let them speak their minds here tonight on The Story. But first Tom Bevan, co- founder and president of Real Clear Politics. Tom, good to have you with us tonight.

TOM BEVAN, CO-FOUNDER, REAL CLEAR POLITICS: Good to be with you.

MACCALLUM: So, I thought it was interesting, a news item out of what the president just said in Minnesota, he said that a safe COVID vaccine would be available within weeks. That I mean, that could be, in any amount, of weeks, I guess. We've heard early in 2021 and he said it will be free and it will be first for seniors, obviously, an appeal to a group that has apparently drifted away a bit from Trump.

BEVAN: It has. It's a group that went for him in 2016 by a sizable margin and he's been struggling with seniors. And you know, he's paid a price for it at the polls in places like Florida and Arizona where there's a big senior population but also these upper Midwest states. So, he is clearly trying to make a play for seniors here in the final stretch.

MACCALLUM: You know, I mean, the timing couldn't be worse in terms of the COVID resurgence or in many of these places, it's really the first time they've dealt with it in a very large way. You've got Wisconsin, you have part of Pennsylvania and that is where he's headed tomorrow for these four stops. Talk to me about where he's going, Tom, and what he hopes to accomplish their based on that map.

BEVAN: Well, Trump has spent previously a lot of time in Pennsylvania and the good news for Trump is that in Pennsylvania and other states, the number one issue is still the economy and he's been able to get some traction on Joe Biden, particularly in Pennsylvania on the issue of fracking, on the issue of energy.

And so, to the extent that he will be able to leverage that argument more -

- look, his recipe for winning in Pennsylvania is pretty simple. He needs huge turnout in the rural areas of the state, the sort of, you know, the tee as they call it, he needs to hold down his losses in the suburbs around Philadelphia in places like Bucks County.

And then as you were talking about in the previous segment with Geraldo and Sean, to the extent he can pick up African-American votes in urban areas like Philadelphia, particularly African-American males -- it doesn't have to be a lot, just a couple of percentage points move in his direction, that would be enough for him to win at the state.

As you mentioned, he's currently down about three and a half points in our Real Clear Politics average of polls, we had two polls come out yesterday that bump that up, it was a little bit closer than that but he over performed the polls in Pennsylvania by two and a half points in 2016.

And so, if he's going to get that same over performance margin again, he needs to -- he needs some more tightening in Pennsylvania to really be in that zone where he could really get the kind of turnout and pull the state out in the final days.

MACCALLUM: Yes. We played some sound bites at the top of the show including David Axelrod and Debbie Dingell and Michael Moore expressing some concern or frustration as they see the numbers of early voters and they take a look and analyze some of that.

And Michael Moore said, you know, in these places where you see Joe Biden ahead by six, eight -- you know, cut that in half because you want to account for the shy Trump voter. Do you think he's right about that?

BEVAN: I think the fact that Joe Biden is going to Michigan to blue places in Michigan where according the polls he's up nine, you know, seven, eight, nine points, I think that's exactly right. I mean, he wouldn't be going there unless the Biden campaign was worried that he doesn't have these places lock down to the degree that the polls say he does.

MACCALLUM: Tom Bevan, thank you very much. Always good to have you with us.

BEVAN: Thanks, Martha.

MACCALLUM: So, joining me now are two Pennsylvania voters, Josie Ramos is a Trump supporter from Carbon County, she's a part-time teacher, she worked about 15 years ago for Senator Santorum. Her husband runs Latinos for Trump in their area. And Eoin Dempsey, a Biden supporter from Delaware County, he's a novelist and former teacher and he is joining us tonight as well.

Eoin, let me start with you.

EOIN DEMPSEY, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: Yes.

MACCALLUM: You says that you were born in Ireland --

DEMPSEY: I was.

MACCALLUM: -- and that you became a citizen because you wanted to vote against President Trump, is that right?

DEMPSEY: It is correct, I've been living here since 2008, I was on a green card and it was -- the motivating factor was this election coming up.

Right? And obviously, you know, I felt a bit like the Boston tea party, tax

-- taxation without representation, that didn't sit well with me either.

But the major factor in me becoming a U.S. citizen was in order to vote in this election. Yes.

MACCALLUM: So, Josie, let me bring you in here, you say that you spend a lot of time talking to voters in Pennsylvania and you think that the state or at least your area is being somewhat misread by these polls.

JOSIE RAMOS, PENNSYLVANIA VOTER: I do. I'm originally from Carbon County but I do a lot of work in Allentown which is the third largest city in Pennsylvania. Allentown is supremely liberal, a lot, a high minority population who is used to having -- having the many years on government assistance and welfare and the whole poverty cycle.

And what we are seeing which is very exciting during this campaign in the last couple months are people coming in to talk with me or other people that I know or family members or neighbors in the city, saying, you know, I've been researching for myself and I'm finding out that the party that I've been voting for has been duping me all my life.

I'm pro-life, I mean, my community and there's a large Hispanic and black community in Allentown is largely pro-life. You know, faith guides the family as well, they are starting to see that, you know, being on government assistance requires them to have a split families in order to have a higher government assistance check and they are tired of that.

They want families, they want fathers and their families and they are seeing the other side is not giving that to me. And so, we are seeing a lot of people --

MACCALLUM: Yes.

RAMOS: -- asking questions --

MACCALLUM: Interesting.

RAMOS: -- and researching for themselves from my community coming in to kind of confirm those answers and changing their party, changing their affiliation to Republican.

MACCALLUM: Interesting. Eoin, obviously the economy has been through a very tough time with COVID and there's been some pushback against the governor in Pennsylvania for not opening things up, not letting, you know, restaurants and gyms and all of these places really get back to their full capacity. What do you say about that and does that influence your vote at all?

DEMPSEY: I think just trying to restart the economy without effectively dealing with the virus is a waste of time. I think the virus is so important in our lives today, it's completely dominating our lives at the moment, 225,000 Americans have died, millions of people infected and it's only getting worse.

The situation is getting worse. I think the record for the amount of cases in one day was this week.

MACCALLUM: That's right.

DEMPSEY: Now, President Trump has tried to blame the governors on this and blaming each individual governors and breaking things into red states and blue states where it's his responsibility for the country of the United States of America.

As far as Governor Wolf is concerned, he's been very good, I thought, he's

-- he's -- our rates haven't been overly bad, of course, we knew like a lot of things in the last week or so they have gone up but he's given a lot of information and I'm quite grateful for that, I will say.

MACCALLUM: OK. Eoin and Josie, thank you both very much. Good to have both of you with us tonight and sharing your viewpoints.

DEMPSEY: Thank you so much for having me.

MACCALLUM: Thanks for coming on.

So, Joe Biden is in Milwaukee, Wisconsin tonight, lot of folks coming through Wisconsin over the past few days. President Trump was in Green Bay earlier today which he won the last time around. And tonight, Joe Biden heads to the area to shore up a place that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

Former Wisconsin Congressman Sean Duffy, and also Jessica Tarlov join us in just a minute. Stick around.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MACCALLUM: A live look tonight on this Friday at Milwaukee, there is the room that Joe Biden will be in shortly. I believe he is almost on site. And we're waiting for him. Hillary Clinton spent zero-time campaigning in Wisconsin and got a lot of heat for it afterwards because President Trump would win the state by less than one point, it was a squeaker in Wisconsin.

We just heard that Joe Biden is wheels down.

And correspondent Jacqui Heinrich is standing by following the Biden campaign as usual and joining us tonight. Hi, Jacqui.

JACQUI HEINRICH, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Martha. Joe Biden is going to focus on coronavirus even more than usual. He's not hosting a drive-in rally because cases are surging in the states. He's going to hop off the plane, give some remarks and then leave.

And the Biden even handed the traveling press N95 mask for this stop. Cases are up all across the Midwest but almost the entire state of Wisconsin is considered a hot spot. If you look at the map, it's the only state that's almost entirely red. The seven-day positivity rate hit 28.2 percent yesterday and by comparison New York City's positivity the rate is 1.6 percent with a much greater population density there.

This Tuesday, Wisconsin shattered its daily record for COVID-19 deaths and cases with state health officials calling it a nightmare scenario. But in Green Bay, Wisconsin, earlier today, President Trump downplayed a recent poll showing Joe Biden 17 points ahead in the states.

The Real Clear Politics average gives Biden a smaller lead, 6.4 points but across the board, polls show coronavirus is a losing issue for the president. Speaking to a crowd of thousands, Trump mocked Biden for making a pandemic such a big part of his campaign.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He gets up today he's talking COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID, COVID. And the truth is we have done an incredible job.

By the way, with or without the vaccine, we are rounding the turn but the vaccine makes it go faster. The vaccine is going to be out very soon. Very, very soon. Our vaccine will eradicate the virus and the pandemic quickly restore normal life, I just want normal life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: At a stop in Minnesota on his way here, Biden blasted President Trump for some other comments he's sure to hit again tonight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOE BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: The President of the United States is accusing the medical profession of making up COVID deaths so they make more money. Doctors and nurses go to work every day to save lives, they do their jobs. Donald Trump should start to stop attacking them and do his job.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: Biden is also expected to refute the president's warming of a looming depression if Biden is elected, he tweeted again today he doesn't want to shut down the country, he doesn't want to shut down the economy but he wants to shut down the virus.

However, this is a Joe Biden's first trip to the states since September and you'll remember Hillary Clinton narrowly lost the election in this state after she failed to visit even once during the general. Martha.

MACCALLUM: That's right. Jacqui, thank you very much. Jacqui Heinrich for us in Wisconsin tonight.

Joining me now Sean Duffy, former Wisconsin GOP congressman, and Jessica Tarlov, senior director of research at Bustle.com . And both are Fox News contributors. Great to have you with us tonight.

Sean, I just want to get your take on Wisconsin.

JESSICA TARLOV, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Thank you.

MACCALLUM: You listen to what Jacqui just said about the campaign and you saw President Trump there earlier today, what does it look like to you?

SEAN DUFFY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Yes. So, I would tell you that COVID is a concern, there's no doubt about that but I think a bigger concern for Wisconsin is an economy. And so, if you look at Donald Trump who's in Green Bay, he was talking to pro-life Catholic voters, it's a big part of that base in the Green Bay area but also talking to the blue-collar union workers and the farmers and about trade and good trade deals for them and growing the economy, putting them back to work.

That Joe Biden has to go back to Milwaukee, that's an area that the GOP probably in the last four cycles have spent $5,000 in total. The Republican Party has spent tens of thousands of dollars reaching out to African- American voters and I think we're going to do very well.

And if you thought that Wisconsin was down 17, Joe Biden wouldn't be here, he wouldn't be in Minnesota. Joe Biden knows that he's on the ropes, he's been like that college student who never studied all semester and now he's cramming for the final exam. He's been kicking back, hanging out and now he realizes he has a race on his hands and Donald Trump very well is going to beat him.

MACCALLUM: Jessica, what do you think?

TARLOV: Well, I agree with Sean that the poll that showed that Joe Biden was up 17 points was an outlier but the average we would imagine is where we are at this point in the race, and he's only about .3 percentage points ahead of where Hillary Clinton was. So, it's certainly within the president's reach, if you consider the margin of error to take Wisconsin.

I would push back a little bit on Sean's estimation of how important the coronavirus is considering all the statistics that Jacqui just told us about what's going on there. I know people in Wisconsin and I certainly don't know what as well as Sean does and his wife Rachel, but I do know that there are people who are afraid to leave their homes. There are people who are not able to go to their jobs if they were in that position that they had to go into work and they are very concerned about this.

Today, a hospital system, a large one in Wisconsin released a statement pushing back on President Trump saying it is not safe to hold a rally bringing together thousands of people. And when you have the third highest number of cases this week in a country that is surging in 25 states in terms of cases, it's reckless and irresponsible of the president. And he needs to stop saying we are rounding the curve, we are beating this virus, everybody knows that that's not true including his supporters that need to take care of their own health.

MACCALLUM: Well, it's a very good point. Sean, obviously for people in Wisconsin who really have never felt it the way we felt it in New York Back in March and April, they are in that zone now, in that mind-set now which is very tough to, you know, I think it's a tough situation for President Trump.

And do you think it keeps people from going to the polls because does it dampen the vote there do you think?

DUFFY: Yes. So, I'm concerned about the media, you know, fanning the flames of COVID and people not turning out especially older voters that are more Republican voters, that is a concern.

MACCALLUM: Right.

DUFFY: But if, I mean, to Jessica's point, if you look at the messages of the two campaigns, Donald Trump truly is optimistic and he's having fun and he's telling jokes and he says we are to round the turn which, you know, frankly, we are. And you have Joe Biden as an angry old man who was barking at cars in the crowd, I think always in America, the optimist -- the optimistic candidate usually wins.

And again, when you look at what has happened this Wisconsin, ground games really matter, Donald Trump has a fantastic ground game and I think that is going to deliver on Tuesday.

MACCALLUM: All right. Jessica, thank you very much. Good to see you. Sean Duffy, thank you very much.

TARLOV: Thank you.

MACCALLUM: We see Joe Biden's plane is now in the hangar and we are going to watch that. So, the forecast for 20 -- for 2020 from the man who has correctly predicted every presidential outcome since 1984 including Trump's win 2016, he's here next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

MACCALLUM: So, my next guest has correctly predicted the outcome of every presidential race since 1984. Historian Allan Lichtman was one of the only election forecasters who predicted that Donald Trump would win the White House back in 2016.

President Trump even sent him a note of congratulations on a copy of the Washington Post article about his prediction.

Joining me now with his forecast for 2020, Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University. Professor, thank you very much for being here. So, I'm sure everybody would like to know what your prediction is this time around and how you arrive at your prediction.

ALLAN LICHTMAN, PROFESSOR, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Right. My totally nonpartisan system generates predictions, not endorsements and the way it works is it's called the 13 keys to the White House. And it engages the strength and performance of the party holding the White House. Trump of course right now. And that means that it is governance, not campaigning that counts.

Imagine that. And the way the system works, if six or more keys go against the White House party, they are predicted losers. Any six. That's how I was able to predict Trump in 2016 because the Democrats had exactly six keys out against them.

However, this time I have a different prediction, now the Trump is the incumbent, he has seven keys out against him and my prediction is that Donald Trump will become the first sitting president since George H.W. Bush in 1992 to lose a reelection bid and Joe Biden will become the next President of the United States.

MACCALLUM: So, just taking a look at those keys, we could put them back up, I don't know that we will have time to get through all of them.

LICHTMAN: Sure.

MACCALLUM: But which ones stand out to you as sort of the most important of these keys and can you explain what's underlying them?

LICHTMAN: Yes. The keys that stand out most important are ones that only turned in 2020 after the pandemic and the cries for social and racial justice. Going into 2020, Donald Trump was looking great with only four keys down but then we have the pandemic which never got resolved and the call for social and racial justice which never got resolved and cost Trump three more keys.

The short-term economic key measured by an election year recession, the long-term economic key because despite the spike in the third quarter on a much lower base growth are still negative and pushes down the average, and of course the social unrest key because of what's raging across the land and remains unresolved.

So, Trump goes from four keys down to seven keys down. Never in the history of the United States, Martha, has the party holding the White House ever suffered such a sudden and dramatic reversal of fortune in just a few months.

MACCALLUM: Yes. You know, it's an interesting question because the things that you point to almost are in some ways out of the president -- any president's control. They are the kinds of things that happen to presidents, happen during their tenure and of course how they respond to them is one of the key measures.

But I just wonder, you know, when you look back in history at other times when things, you know, became -- become so overwhelming to the office that perhaps there is not that much a president can do to change those keys.

LICHTMAN: well, Herbert Hoover, a man who should know it said very presciently, when you're the president you get the credit for the sunshine and the blame for the rain. It's raining pretty hard on America right now.

MACCALLUM: I think it is raining pretty hard. Allan, thank you very much.

Allan Lichtman, interesting to hear your perspective and we'll and see if you're right or if this is the first time that you're wrong and we'll talk after the election. Thank you, sir.

LICHTMAN: Absolutely.

MACCALLUM: Good to have you with us tonight.

LICHTMAN: Take care.

MACCALLUM: So that is The Story for Friday, October 3oth, 2020. We're still waiting for Joe Biden to come out to that event. This Story continues over the next several days and we will be with you all through it. We'll see you Sunday night at six o'clock. Bret Baier and I have a special for you to kick off the countdown to election day special coverage. Good night, everybody. Have a great night.

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