Updated

By Laura Ingraham

Now, I realize that some of you won't like hearing this, but if the election were held today, Romney would probably lose. Two surveys released within hours of each other by CNN and Fox reported Obama up by seven points and nine points respectively.

The swing state story is not a good one either. The real Clear Politics average has Obama up seven in Pennsylvania, five in Ohio, and three in Virginia. Obama leads by slim margins in Florida and Colorado.

So with unemployment still above eight percent and two-thirds of the country thinking that we're going in the wrong direction, how on earth is Obama still ahead? Is every poll other than Rasmussen flawed or biased? First reason, negative ads and Romney brand management.

Just about every week this summer, Democrats have launched a new attack against Romney. And by August, they've stereotyped him as a tax dodging, cancer causing, outsourcing, 1950s aristocrat with a car elevator. Romney has spent a lot of time raising money which is important and he's done that well. But he has not launched the type of aggressive messaging and counter offensive that is necessary to beat the campaign of a Saul Alinsky acolyte.

The Obama team throws a knife and Romney's team tosses a pillow. An effective rapid response team would have nailed Obama on the Super PAC cancer ad. I would have said something like this, we're all getting sick, sick of this poisonous style of campaigning and sick of politicians like President Obama who blame others for their broken promises and failed policies. Instead, Romney's spokeswoman responded by lauding universal healthcare in Massachusetts. Terrible.

And when Obama scored with that Romney Hood line, the best Romney's communications team could come up with is Obamaloney. Really?

Conservatives are worried for a reason. They've seen this movie before and they know how it ends, in defeat. Romney's team should be going into the Republican National Convention seven points up. Not down. He must regain his lost ground over the next few weeks and he shouldn't rely on his VP pick to help much. This is his to win or lose. Point by point, he must give the voters a sober, brutally exacting description of how dire the situation is for America.

Then he needs to hit the trail with a road show to explain how his policies will begin to turn things around. This is what he did so well at Bain. It was great. Both the country and his own campaign need the stellar crisis management skills that saved the 2002 Olympics that Romney demonstrated.

We as Americans don't have to lower our expectations and Romney's team must expose the Obama record. And it must elevate the campaign away from the Obama distractions. Engage the public in a serious conversation about saving this country we love so much. This will make team Obama, with all of its parties and celebrity endorsements seem petty and unserious by comparison.

And that's "The Memo."