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George Soros writes op-ed praising President Trump's China policy

Billionaire investor Ken Fisher on U.S.-China trade war, George Soros' op-ed.

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," September 10, 2019. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE POMPEO, SECRETARY OF STATE: The president is entitled to the staff that he wants at any moment. This is a staff person who works directly for the president. And he should have people that he trusts and values and whose efforts and judgments benefit him in delivering American foreign policy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

NEIL CAVUTO, ANCHOR: John Bolton is out. So what the heck happens now?

Welcome, everybody. I'm Neil Cavuto.

And we are live at the White House, where the president is set to meet with Republican congressional leaders.

Why Kentucky Senator Rand Paul says he's actually glad to see Bolton go. The senator in a moment.

First, John Roberts at the White House with more on Bolton's sudden fall from grace -- John.

JOHN ROBERTS, CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

This was something that's been bubbling around for a while. I was informed yesterday by confidential sources that it looked like Bolton was probably on the way out. And today it happened. We got his resignation letter.

In his typically unvarnished fashion, Bolton says -- quote -- "I hereby resign, effective immediately, as assistant to the president for national security affairs. Thank you for having afforded me this opportunity to serve our country."

There had been disagreements between Bolton and the president through most of Bolton's 17-month tenure over things like Afghanistan, Iran, North Korea, Russia interference in the American election, Venezuela, and more.

A source told me today -- quote -- "At some point, it becomes inevitable that the relationship had to end."

Bolton's approach, I'm told, was to provide national security advice based on a coherent philosophy, and that it was difficult to carry that out in this White House.

But it was the White House who says Bolton was out of step. Listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOGAN GIDLEY, WHITE HOUSE DEPUTY PRESS SECRETARY: Last night, the president of the United States asked John Bolton to tender his resignation. It was delivered to the president today.

QUESTION: And why does John Bolton then come public with a different story?

I'm certain you're probably hearing about the tweet where he says, no, he and the president had talked, and that, if anything happened, he resigned on his own.

GIDLEY: Listen, I'm not going to get into the back and forth here. But the fact remains that the president did ask for John Bolton's resignation. It was delivered today. And we're in the process of looking for a new director.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: So two different stories on how this all went down.

I'm told that there was a discussion over Afghanistan last night. John Bolton had let it be known through intermediaries that he was not a fan of the idea bringing the Taliban to Camp David and not a fan of the overall peace plan.

The two got into a heated discussion last evening. Bolton offered his resignation. According to Bolton, the president said, let's talk about it tomorrow.

A source familiar with Bolton's thinking says, he slept on it, came into work this morning, chaired a principals meeting on refugees, and then said, you know what? There's no real reason to keep discussing this. He handed his resignation to the president at 11:30 in the morning.

It was 28 minutes later after that the president tweeted out that he asked Bolton for his resignation last night.

So we will forever be wondering, Neil, did the president fire him or did John Bolton decide to resign? There's definitely a difference of opinion there.

Now, as to what might happen next, a couple of names being kicked around Washington, Brian Hook, who is the senior policy adviser to Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, Stephen Biegun, who is the chief of the North Korea negotiations, President Trump likes both of them. Mike Pompeo likes both of them.

And you can bet that because Pompeo is now the president's most trusted adviser on foreign policy and national security, Pompeo will likely have a big influence over who the president picks -- Neil.

CAVUTO: All right, John Roberts at the White House.

Before we get to my next guest, I do want to compare resignation letters.

When they are short and pithy and to the point, normally, the person leaving is not too happy. You have seen this little-more-than-one-sentence resignation letter on the part of Mr. Bolton.

It compares very much to Richard Nixon's resignation letter back on August 9, 1974, short, pithy, to the point.

Keep in mind, when Jim Mattis decided to leave as defense secretary, he had two full single-spaced pagers, arguing his point that it had a lot to do with some bigger issues and no ill will or toward the president. That was then. This is now.

Kentucky Republican Senator Rand Paul with me now.

Senator, good to see you.

What do you make of this?

SEN. RAND PAUL, R-KY: You know, I think the threat of war around the world is greatly diminished with Bolton out of the White House.

I think he had a naive point of view for the world, that we should topple regimes everywhere and institute democratic governments, and we would make the world perfect or remake the world in our image.

And, frankly, it just doesn't work that way. There's a lot of history of getting rid of strongmen in the Middle East and having them replaced by vacuums or chaos, or actually making the place more hospitable for terrorist training.

So, I think his idea that the way you deal with Iran is you just topple the government, or the way you deal with North Korea is you topple the government really wasn't what the president has been talking about.

The president is actually talking about not having regime change and finding a diplomatic solution to some of these conflicts around the world. And I think the president deserves to have somebody who's his national security adviser who actually will try to further his policy, and not try to stymie it.

CAVUTO: Senator, your colleague Ted Cruz, though, didn't quite feel the same way.

He said that: "I sincerely hope his leaving" -- referring to Bolton -- "doesn't mean that the deep state forces at State and Treasury who been fighting tooth and nail to preserve the Obama-Iran nuclear deal have finally convinced the president to go soft on Iran."

What did you make of it?

PAUL: I think it's more about whether or not we can intervene everywhere and whether we should have regime change, or whether we should try diplomacy, whether we see the world as it is and try to work within the world and engage with people around the world, or whether we say, oh, we must have a perfect Thomas Jefferson leader in every country.

The problem is, is, when people like Bolton say, oh, we are going to topple Gadhafi and we're going to make Libya into this great American-style republic, they don't elect Thomas Jefferson. They elect another religious leader who becomes an autocrat in place of one religious leader or one autocrat.

So, really, I think the Middle East and many of these places who have been ruled by strongmen, the answer isn't military regime change. And I think Bolton was very wrong and naive in his world view. I'm glad to see him gone.

And I hope the president can find somebody who actually listens to what the president says. This president is extraordinary. In his State of the Union, he said great nations don't fight perpetual war. And he's absolutely right, but that defies the orthodoxy of the establishment foreign policy in Washington.

And so the president really needs to find somebody who has the guts to stand up to the orthodoxy, not someone who is part of the swamp.

CAVUTO: Are you convinced that that is the president's position, though?

Because he has now gone through three national security advisers, Michael Flynn, H.R. McMaster, now John Bolton, all for various reasons, but there's a high turnover, particularly in that area in foreign policy. And a lot of people look at it and just say, well, what -- what do you want? What do you stand for?

PAUL: Well, I think the interesting thing is, if you look at Donald Trump over the last decade or more, one of the consistent themes that you will hear him speak of, maybe for 20 or 30 years, is the idea that regime change doesn't work.

He has said for a long, long time the Iraq War was a mistake, that we emboldened Iran by getting rid of Saddam Hussein, that there was a counterbalance in having Saddam Hussein there, and that that vacuum allowed ISIS to grow in that vacuum.

And so, really, I think the president has been very, very consistent. Now, I think, historically, even when you...

CAVUTO: Yes, but you mentioned ISIS, Senator. You mentioned ISIS.

And he thought ISIS was on the run, ISIS was defeated. A lot of his foreign policy advisers urged him to cool it on that kind of talk, because it just emboldened the enemy. And, sure enough, of course, ISIS popped up in other locales.

PAUL: Right.

CAVUTO: Does he have to be careful with his wording?

PAUL: I would say that the president, though, has been very consistent believing that -- in a more realistic foreign policy and less of a neoconservative foreign policy.

Now, I would grant you that some of the people he's picked haven't been people who've actually agreed with the president. But I can go back to Reagan's administration, where all of us conservatives, we loved Ronald Reagan, and then all of a sudden he was appointing sometimes people who we didn't think, frankly, were conservative or fulfilling Reagan's vision.

So, I think this is true in every administration. But my advice and my hope is that the president will pick somebody who actually listens to what he says and wants to further his goals.

I think the president could do something really heroic and dramatic in getting us out of the war in Afghanistan. And I think he would, if he didn't have people working for him who were contradicting and countermanding his orders and had their own agenda.

So, I think he finds to somebody who follows the president.

CAVUTO: But would that include, Senator -- all right, but would that include -- I mean, obviously, we are told Mr. Bolton raised his concerns about that meeting with the Taliban, at Camp David, no less, and that at the very least the optics didn't look good and the timing, so close to 9/11.

Do you think that there is a difference between expressing concerns and being deemed not a team player?

PAUL: I think the thing is about the Taliban, whether we negotiate with them, how we leave, all wars ultimately end.

And there ultimately is a negotiated settlement, unless you have unconditional surrender, like after World War II with Japan or with Germany, there is unconditional surrender.

CAVUTO: Right.

PAUL: The vast majority of the rest of the wars in world history end with negotiations. The IRA was awful.

CAVUTO: So, would you have been for those talks -- no, you're right.

Would you have been for those talks with the Taliban?

PAUL: Well, here -- here's what I would say about it, is, it's a confusing situation.

I think the Taliban needs to negotiate, but I think they should negotiate directly with the government of Afghanistan. They have refused to do so. So, I think part of one way we end the war is, we continue to support, in a gradually lessening fashion, through money and arms, the government of Afghanistan, and we have them step up.

But, really, it's the obligation of them to be strong enough that the Taliban will negotiate with them. Right now, the Taliban doesn't believe that they are strong enough. So they negotiate with us as a proxy.

But the problem is, the Taliban aren't reliable. They are violent and they continue to commit violence. The other problem is, the people with the Taliban negotiating with us may not well have the strength of organization to control all elements of everybody else in Afghanistan.

So, maybe they don't control the Taliban.

CAVUTO: So, you would not be for -- given those -- given those dynamics, Senator, you wouldn't before putting the talks back on?

The president said this attack led by the Taliban had killed a U.S. soldier and dozens others, that you would -- that he wouldn't entertain it, "They're dead to me," saying that the talks wouldn't happen.

PAUL: Right.

CAVUTO: Do you agree with that approach?

PAUL: I think the Taliban needs to have a cease-fire and they need to quit killing Americans, and they need quit people -- quit doing that if they want to have peace.

However, I would say that peace comes when we make the decision that we declare victory and we come home, and shouldn't be dependent on the Taliban. I don't think the Taliban, frankly, are trustworthy, nor do I think the people negotiating have the ability to control all of the other fighters in the field.

But, nevertheless, I would come home, because the idea that we have to control land around the world to prevent terrorism is a fallacy. There's land everywhere. There is chaos in Africa. There is chaos in the Middle East. There's all kinds of place for terrorists to be.

It's a foolish notion to think that America has to be all in those places, policing all those areas, to prevent terrorism. No, we should be vigilant about who comes to our country. The people on 9/11 all came here legally, or the vast majority of them, and we didn't pay any attention.

We should pay attention to those who would come to our country. We should have strict rules on who comes into our country. And we should have great intelligence around the world.

But it doesn't mean we have to occupy every acre of the world.

CAVUTO: All right, well, maybe something that would echo some of the concerns that Mr. Bolton had, we are learning, Senator, that there's been an explosion in the Afghan capital near the U.S. Embassy, technically on 9/11, the anniversary of 9/11, their time.

Isn't that the same kind of thing that Mr. Bolton was concerned about and worried the president wasn't?

PAUL: Yes, but if you set the goal that we are going to have no violence before we leave and there will be no radical jihadists in Afghanistan before we leave, you will never leave.

CAVUTO: Right.

PAUL: Here's what I would say. You should ask the opposite question.

What is our mission? Is our mission to do nation-building and spend $50 billion a year, $45 million on gas station, billions of dollars on roads and schools? Is that our mission? Is our mission to defend the country? What's our mission in Afghanistan?

There's not one general out there that can tell you exactly what our mission is. Is our mission the Vietnam mission, to take one more village to get a better negotiated settlement? Is that what we're there for?

There is no national security reason to be there. There is no Al Qaeda. There's a -- there might be 10 people in Al Qaeda left there. All of the leadership's been destroyed. The Taliban are fighting against foreign fighters.

The Taliban aren't this international organization that's going to come to the United States. They are people who have been fighting historically for over 100 years. Every time foreign fighters come, they try to expel the foreign fighters.

CAVUTO: Does it bother you then, Senator, real quickly, sir, the way the president handled these things?

He's certainly free to hire and fire whoever he wants. They serve at his pleasure, but that he often doesn't tell them directly. And Mr. Bolton said it didn't happen that way. Rex Tillerson, the former secretary of state, found out later via tweet that he was out.

That the president doesn't directly seem to tell them a lot of the time.

PAUL: I think, if you're going to work for the president, you need to work for the president. You need to try to further the president's agenda.

My opinion is that I saw John Bolton working against the president's agenda. He had his own agenda. And when the president was trying to negotiate a deal with North Korea, you have got Bolton out there saying, we should try the Libyan solution, which means we should execute their leader.

That's not very helpful to any kind of negotiated settlement with North Korea or any country.

CAVUTO: All right.

All right, Rand Paul, who has a book coming out, "The Case Against Socialism." That's due out in October.

Look forward to chatting with you about that, Senator.

PAUL: Thank you.

CAVUTO: In the meantime, with John Bolton out as national security visor, then what happens? Who takes his place? And what is the fallout in the markets?

Today, not much.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, so who should be Ambassador Bolton's replacement here, national security adviser?

Lieutenant Colonel Bob Maginnis with us right now.

Colonel, what do you think? What message should we be sending with a foreign policy team and its cohesive signal? What should it be?

LT. COL. BOB MAGINNIS, RET., U.S. ARMY: Well, I think John Bolton was a contrarian.

But the president, Neil, said he does a killer interview on FOX News, which is true, and I agreed with a lot of what I heard from John Bolton even the night that he was announced.

But the reality is, you have to have a team player. I think Mike Pompeo, Mark Esper, many of the others understand the way in which this president functions. If you're going to be on his team, you better get in line. Otherwise, you shouldn't be there.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Get in line with what, Colonel? Is there a policy? What is that policy, that philosophy worldwide?

MAGINNIS: Well, arguably, his philosophy, the president's, has evolved over time.

What's become clear, Neil, is, he's willing to talk to anybody. He's a dealmaker. We all know that from his past. And he's going to do things that are rather unconventional.

If you can't live with that frenetic type of lifestyle and that sort of foreign policy, then you shouldn't be advising the president who has that in mind. He's going to show up at the demilitarized zone. He's going to talk to Rouhani at the U.N. maybe later this month.

He's going to meet with Putin, in spite of all the criticism in the media. So the president has a technique. I think anyone that has been watching him for the last few years understands where he wants to go.

When Mark Esper came up with billions of dollars out of other programs overseas and here at home to build the border wall, he understood what this president wants. The president is the elected official of this country. We have to be either team players or get out of the way.

CAVUTO: So, maybe the Jim Mattis approach, when he resigned, wrote a lengthy two-page single-spaced letter to the president that was really built on his disagreeing with his commander in chief about withdrawing troops, all remaining troops from Syria, and he made it clear that you need to have someone on board who shares your vision on things, that that's the approach to take?

MAGINNIS: Well, General Mattis understands the chain of command.

The American people have to appreciate, if we're going to elect a president who has a way of doing things, that's what we're going to see in the future. And if you can't abide by that, then you leave the team.

General Mattis understood that. And so we went through Shanahan, who didn't get to stick in the job, and Mark Esper, obviously, as the secretary of the army, has done a good job and he was elevated.

Mike Pompeo is much the same. The president deserves the team that will be obedient to his philosophy and his agenda. And I believe, whether it's in North Korea, Iran, Russia, or China, we live in a dangerous world. We need a solidified, focused team.

CAVUTO: All right, Colonel, thank you very, very much.

For all I know, your phone is going to ring pretty soon. Good seeing you again, my friend. Thank you.

MAGINNIS: Thank you.

CAVUTO: Can you believe it? About three-and-a-half-hours from now before the polls close in North Carolina.

This is that redo for the 2018 race there -- why a lot of people are saying it could be a preview of 2020 as well -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: Welcome back.

Just over about three hours to go before polls close in North Carolina. That's that redo election.

Fox News's Jonathan Serrie in Monroe, North Carolina, with the latest.

Hey, Jonathan.

JONATHAN SERRIE, CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Neil.

Although Republicans have held this district since 1963, this has really turned into a highly competitive race. Both President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence were in the district yesterday campaigning for Republican Dan Bishop.

Bishop entered the race after state elections officials refused to certify the result of last year's contest amid allegations of ballot tampering.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAN BISHOP, R-N.C., CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: In this race for just six months. And we have done well and we're having some help here at the end to even the -- level the playing field. But that's the answer to why it's close.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SERRIE: Republicans have tried to tie Democrat Dan McCready to the liberal wing of his national party.

But the Marine veteran and business owner has focused his campaign on health care and other kitchen table issues.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAN MCCREADY, D-N.C. CONGRESSIONAL CANDIDATE: I don't think anyone should go to Washington as a Democrat first or a Republican first. They should go as Americans first. That's how he fought in the Marine Corps. We never cared what political party you were in. We all wore the same color uniform.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SERRIE: And, Neil, right now, both parties are looking at this race as a potential gauge of what suburban voters may be thinking nationwide and perhaps a bellwether going into 2020 -- Neil.

CAVUTO: We shall see. Jonathan, thank you, as always, my friend.

Meanwhile, President Trump's approval is going down. Recession fears are ramping up, but the numbers indicate anything but.

What is going on here?

After this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: Would you plunk down a lot of money for a lot of fancy watches and a new iPhone that isn't that different from the one before it?

Apple is hoping you will for a lot of neat stuff -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, it's not something the president likes, apparently bashing a new poll that shows his overall approval rating down on recession fears.

And that's a little odd, considering the fact that, well, we are not in a recession, nowhere close. Maybe the fear is that eventually we will be, but still.

Fox News contributor Gary Kaltbaum, Axios reporter Alayna Treene.

Gary, it's one thing to fear something that hasn't materialized. It's quite another then to wallop the president's approval rating as a result. What do you make of all of this?

GARY KALTBAUM, CONTRIBUTOR: You know, Neil, on the approval rating, I have got to bring up Charles Payne, because every day I turn on his show, he talks about 50-year lows in unemployment, all kinds of great news time and time again.

But yet we get barraged by Alabama and maps, by war of words with actresses, now John Bolton. The Taliban may be coming in right before 9/11.

I just think all that has been getting on top of what's really being lost, and that's the great, great numbers of unemployment, which matter most to voters when all is said and done. I think they really need to get out of their way and get the message right and just stay focused.

But I have been hoping that for a couple years, and it just hasn't happened.

CAVUTO: Alayna, there might be something to that. And the president says he has to talk and discuss a lot of these other things because he doesn't feel he gets a fair rap in the media.

But in so doing, he sort of gets in a fight with the media about the very things he doesn't want to be brought up.

ALAYNA TREENE, AXIOS: That's definitely a good point, and it's something we have seen over the course of his administration.

The president really can't help himself. And we see this on Twitter a lot. He will point to -- in his criticisms of the media and branding of other people, he actually brings more attention to the story that he claims is fake news than if he just never tweeted about it at all.

But I think that, when it comes to the economy here and something I think that the president does have actually a point about is, the media is in many ways, sometimes with the economy, overcorrecting for some of its past mistakes.

So, in 2008, no one really predicted that the Great Recession was coming. And so I think that's why some people in the media are kind of trying to hedge their bets, so that they don't miss it this time.

CAVUTO: No, I definitely think there are some who say that.

And I think also think that my colleagues in the media, they are not into being as dull as I am. They are not into this stuff. They are not into this following the markets and following the economy. They just don't get in the weeds.

Now, I think, because of that, Gary, that their sort of eyes glaze over when you start discussing it, even though the statistics, whether you want to credit the president or not, are pretty -- pretty damn good. What do you think?

KALTBAUM: They are damn good all the way around.

Look, let's be clear. For a few days, the media was going 24/7 on recession. And it looked like they were popping the champagne corks.

But, look, the president has like 60 million people on Twitter. He's got the bully pulpit. He gets in the Rose Garden all the time in front of reporters, and he talks about all these other things.

All I'm saying is, the stock market, the big four indices are like 2 or 2 percent from the highs. It's done very well since the election. The economy, we are not in recession. Considering the fact other areas around the globe are suspect, we're doing great compared to them.

Yet the message is not getting out. I just think if they get some sound messaging, straightforward, and just get away from all this stuff, I bet you the poll numbers go up. But, again, it just hasn't happened.

CAVUTO: You know, Alayna, too, with voters, we look at the national poll numbers, approval, disapproval, and I get that, but as you know, and as reported, these are decided state by state.

And the president for the turn of 70,000 plus votes are so in some crucial Rust Belt states, turned this election and won. Now, in those same states, he's got a battle going on. And that's the one area where he is weak, to focus on those states, to focus on that, because the real slowdown -- and that is a slowdown from where we were -- is in the manufacturing sector, in those very states that he needs to win again. Right?

TREENE: Exactly.

And this is something -- this is why I think a lot of people are pointing to the potential for the some sort of economic slowdown because -- and this is something that the president himself has caused with this trade war with China.

There's a lot of uncertainty. That's the thing that Wall Street hates the most, is the uncertainty in the markets. And that's I think contributed to some of these fears that there could be a potential economic slowdown.

So, between the uncertainty with China, as well as some of the other president's economic policies, a lot of people are pointing to potentially there will be a slowdown in the next few years.

And this is something that in my conversations with people on the Trump campaign, within the White House is their biggest fear, is if the economy starts to take a turn, the president really is in a much more dangerous spot in these states that you have just brought up.

CAVUTO: But, Gary, we cover economic cycles. We haven't given that up. It's not as if we have outlawed or forever wiped out recessions. They are part of life, part of our cycle.

So leaving the timing of it aside, where do you see things going now?

KALTBAUM: I don't see a recession right now.

I think there is a problem with manufacturing. And it is the uncertainty on the tariffs. I speak to companies every day and they can't plan very well because they don't know what's next. They want to get some certainty on China and just everything else that's coming down the pike, also the Fed.

But, look, I'm just not seeing an overall recession, slowdown, not a big deal. You have got the Fed now backstopping things. I'm pretty sure there's going to be at 1.5, maybe down to 1 percent on Fed Funds. And interest rates have really helped.

So, I think we are in good stead right here, in spite of all the dire talk from so many outlets out there.

CAVUTO: All right, guys, I want to take you both very, very much.

As they were speaking here, we have got our first chance to see John Bolton I think leaving the White House. Is that right, Sam? It is not. He's outside.

He was earlier this morning, before he left. Do we have that to show, guys? OK, there. That's it.

OK, well, that was worth the price of admission.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: We will have more after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: How would you like it if you left a top position in the administration and the market soars?

But there is no connection. The Dow is up 74 points, despite the fact or maybe just oblivious to the fact that John Bolton had left as national security adviser in the administration. But it is a kick in the pants on the way out in a way.

Billionaire investor Ken Fisher, a very good read, a contrarian read, at that. Whatever you think of the markets and all, he zigs when they zag. And he's put together a few bucks doing that, a multibillionaire.

Good to see you.

KEN FISHER, FOUNDER, FISHER INVESTMENTS: Great to be with you, Neil. Always is. It's always fun.

CAVUTO: Do you -- same here.

Do you look at market impacts for something, an event like this, and, oh, it's showing craziness going on at the White House, it's all disarray, sell, sell, sell? What do you think?

FISHER: So, for how long has the White House seemed to have a lot of volatility associated with it?

CAVUTO: Very good point. Very good point. Good point.

FISHER: How has life gone on since that started?

I don't see this as very different. I don't worry about John Bolton. He's going to find a job, I'm pretty sure.

CAVUTO: Right.

FISHER: Things will be fine.

CAVUTO: So, for the markets looking at all of this, and then you see poll figures that come out today, the president's approval number dips, despite a pretty strong economy and pretty good markets, within just a stone's throw all-time highs again.

FISHER: Sure.

CAVUTO: That doesn't jibe, does it?

FISHER: No.

But, in reality, markets are a little bit like the snake charmer. The market is the snake. The charmer is the economy, and you don't really want to be watching either. You want to be watching the crowd.

And really what you're talking about is that the crowd is not terribly charmed by the snake charmer right now. If you think about it a little differently, sometimes, they warm up and economy has to get the snake dancing a little differently.

And that happens. I'm not overly optimistic about the market in the short to intermediate term.

CAVUTO: What is short to intermediate?

FISHER: Next six months.

CAVUTO: OK.

FISHER: Pretty often in this period of a presidential election year in particular, you get 17 people bashing the president and bashing each other.

And you get rising uncertainty from that, which often makes the market move forward, but hesitatingly. The world's not that bad. But there's an awful lot of focus on the negative.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: But the markets -- I think you have written extensively on this -- tend to lead.

FISHER: Yes.

CAVUTO: And what are they telling us now?

FISHER: And so what I would expect to happen is that, as we move through that period of winnowing the Democratic nominee down to one, or a couple, that that uncertainty fades, markets lead that in advance, and as you move sort of toward the end of the year, we get rising market.

But in the short term, it could be choppy.

CAVUTO: All right.

China. Everyone talks about China. They made an effort today or a promise, we're told, to buy more agricultural items from us. You said something interesting about this, writing a couple of days ago: "I still think this" -- referring to the China situation -- "is less about economic policy than pre-election grandstanding and North Korea."

FISHER: Sure.

CAVUTO: But what did you mean by that?

FISHER: Well, in the beginning -- and actually I spoke about this with you as it was happening real time in 2018.

The fact is, every time Trump would want to try to open the relationship with North Korea, Kim Jong-un, and it would blow up, he would up the tariff function. Kim Jong-un would go off to Beijing. There'd be a lot of powwowing and then...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: So, you think those two are tied at the hip?

FISHER: Oh, absolutely. If you look at the timing of Trump's movements and the timing of Kim Jong-un's physical movements, remembering that Kim Jong-un never stepped foot out of North Korea from the time he became head of state...

CAVUTO: That's true. That's true.

FISHER: ... until he hopped on the train in response to the tariffs against China.

The fact is, Chairman Xi said, come here, little Kimmy. Come here. I want to see you.

CAVUTO: So, you think he's calling the shots here?

FISHER: I absolutely believe that the relationship that exists -- there's no reason for North Korea to exist as it does.

This is a country with less paved road miles than a small town in America in the whole country. This is a very poor place spending money on nuclear weapons.

CAVUTO: But it's integral to this trade thing?

FISHER: It's China's ankle biter against America.

CAVUTO: Well, will we have a deal before the election, do you think?

FISHER: Oh, I don't know the answer to that.

Let me say that if I'm Trump -- and I have said this to you before about other things, including the Mexico tariffs and what have you -- sometimes, Trump caves on a little agreement. Sometimes, he waits for more later. He's going to want something. He's going to want something.

CAVUTO: So there is a method to it? You -- Ken Fisher sees a method to what he's doing. It's not just...

FISHER: Trump told you when he wrote his book eons ago, you start off acting like a crazy man. You act big. They offer you a little and you decide, do you want to settle for it?

And sometimes he does. Sometimes he doesn't. I can't predict President Trump. I don't try to. The fact of the matter is, he's got something going on his brain that he wants to accomplish. Will he? I don't know.

CAVUTO: But you almost make it sound like it's all orchestrated.

You wrote: "Memories are short. If Trump got his big win now on trade" -- you're talking about trade.

FISHER: Oh, yes.

CAVUTO: "Folks would forget it before the election."

FISHER: Oh, yes. Oh, yes.

CAVUTO: So he would have to stagger it to close to the election, a year from now.

FISHER: And if you get too close, he loses his power, too, because if you get too close, China then says let's wait it out and see if he's still there. We don't lose much by waiting.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: So, you think it's a summer of 2020 event.

FISHER: It's a tricky function.

But I revert to my point that, fundamentally, America is a country that takes things for granted. Once we get it, we assume it was always there. And it's just on to the next. We're kind of an impatient, on to the next culture. And that's good and bad all in one.

But the fact is that Trump, who is, despite all of his critics' criticisms, he's in things political. As you pointed out earlier in the show today, he's been very crafty in his 2016 election, pulling off something that no one had ever done before.

CAVUTO: And he might be doing it again.

FISHER: And he's always got some plan there.

Whether it will work or not, I don't know.

CAVUTO: Well, he got odd praise, Ken, from George Soros, the billionaire investor...

FISHER: Yes. Sure.

CAVUTO: ... who likes his stance and think it's his greatest foreign policy achievement.

He did warn, though, I think in the context of those remarks, don't cave on Huawei.

FISHER: Think of China in this way.

If you look at WeChat, their social media, can't sell it for beans outside of China.

CAVUTO: Right.

FISHER: Look at the Chinese exports of other tech products. They're about this big.

Alibaba outside of China staggers.

CAVUTO: Right.

FISHER: The fact of the matter is, all of that comes because the China system is based on censoring.

There's only one Chinese source of media that doesn't appear to be censored, which is Kaishin (ph), where I write monthly. I'm one of a handful of Westerners that write there.

CAVUTO: Right. Right.

FISHER: And the fact of the matter is that if you're going to have that control system, you really have a hard time selling on the outside.

Look at the Chinese-originated semiconductor export market. It's tiny. In this world, semiconductors are to this world what steel and electricity were to the 19th century.

If you -- maybe even steam. But the fact of the matter is, if you think about it, if -- I mean, semiconductors are not new tech, but they are fundamental building blocks. They're the bricks that we make everything out of.

CAVUTO: Are they in peril if we don't settle all this stuff?

FISHER: As George Soros points out, quite correctly, Huawei has tremendous difficulty if they can't buy American tech products.

CAVUTO: Right.

FISHER: We are -- we are stronger because we are America, the land of the free and the home of the brave. We are the tech-dominant force in the world.

Look at tech market cap by country. You have a hard time finding tech of any significance on a market cap basis outside of our wonderful country.

CAVUTO: When you talk about 5G and all this late technology and all, the argument is that we go too far on this trade thing, we bequeath it all to China.

FISHER: I don't know that is true, I don't know that's not true.

CAVUTO: Really? OK.

I like when you're very honest when you answer a question.

You mentioned about currency war fears and the fact that the president argues that we haven't felt the impact of these tariffs because the Chinese devalue their currency, the yuan, and they have the big benefit here.

You argued that these fears are as false as they come. What did you mean by that?

FISHER: So, first, trying to grow your country by currency manipulation has never, ever worked. Try to find examples of places where it has. You can't.

Secondarily...

CAVUTO: And this race, then, where all these countries are devaluing their currency?

FISHER: It's a race to the bottom. And how well are they doing compared to...

CAVUTO: So if we're following that, Ken, by lowering rates here?

FISHER: That's a mistake,.

CAVUTO: That's a mistake?

(CROSSTALK)

FISHER: Now, mind you, I don't have a problem with the Fed cutting rates.

I think almost everything the Fed ever does is, let's say, stupid.

CAVUTO: You're not a fan of the Fed, right?

FISHER: If it were up to me, I would do something that no one talks about. I would dump all of their long bonds and force the long rate up as much as they could to steepen the yield curve, to increase the spread between bank deposit rates and long-term lending rates.

CAVUTO: We should explain. You dump a lot of bonds, you flood the market supply, the price goes down, the yield goes up.

FISHER: The yield goes up.

And in doing that, you incent banks to lend. The whole Fed policy throughout this expansion has been to disincent banks to lend. And right now...

CAVUTO: How would higher rates make them lend?

FISHER: Because the core business of banking is taking in short-term deposits as the basis for making long-term loans.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: No, I understand that. But how would people take advantage of that?

FISHER: Lesser corporations would be able to borrow.

It doesn't help..

CAVUTO: I see.

FISHER: It doesn't help the world if Microsoft can borrow a little more cheaply. They can get all the money they want right now, and they can borrow all over the world.

It's the American domestic company that's a cement maker, or is a basic industry company, or is a basic services company that's having a hard time borrowing from the bank right now that could borrow and then expand and then do well.

We really shouldn't have ever had the Fed buying the long bonds they bought in the first place. Quantitative easing, as I have written about forever...

CAVUTO: So, you're critical of the Fed. I know.

You're critical of the Fed for reasons other than what the president is saying.

FISHER: A longtime critic of the Fed.

Quantitative easing was really always quantitative diseasing, because it always disincentivized lending on the margin. They never should have entered that turf. It was a slippery slope. It was a mistake. It was bad. And they still don't get it.

I mean, I learned this stuff from Milton Friedman when I was very young, and he said they would never get it. And they never have.

CAVUTO: You're a billionaire.

FISHER: They say. Who knows?

CAVUTO: Well, they say.

FISHER: I just have stuff.

CAVUTO: Yes, you have a lot of stuff. But you don't flaunt it.

Elizabeth Warren has a wealth tax idea that -- to go after people like you. And it could raise a lot of money. How do you feel about that?

FISHER: I don't think it'll go anywhere, no matter what.

I think it's easy to say those words. I think, when you get down to mark- to-market accounting, it's a very treacherous slope.

Let me just say that, if you implemented as she has discussed, which, again, I don't think will ever happen, you would have every wealthy family to which it would be applying in perpetual lawsuit with the IRS.

I mean, every year...

CAVUTO: And you could find ways to dodge it or bury it, right?

FISHER: Oh, so I have made the point forever that if you're able to be clever enough to become that wealthy, other than perhaps a few heirs, trust kids, you're clever enough to figure out how to get around it too.

It's arrogant for lawmakers to think they can pass laws that will capture those people.

CAVUTO: I will put you down as a maybe for Elizabeth Warren.

Ken Fisher, always good seeing. More than a dozen books, more than half of them bestsellers. That's not too shabby, and apparently he has some money. I don't know.

Anyway, there's a new iPhone that's front and center at this Apple launch today. I don't know about you. I'm a bit of a tech geek, almost as much as he is a market geek. I don't get it here. I don't see what's new here, but I could be missing something -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, Apple unveiling lots of stuff today at this big annual that in California.

The read on all of it and what was hot, what maybe wasn't from Susan Li -- Susan.

(LAUGHTER)

SUSAN LI, CORRESPONDENT: Oh, yes, the phones were hot, all right, and, yes, still the big moneymaker for Apple, but today shocking the market the tech and the media world by announcing its new streaming service, Apple TV+.

We know it was going to come before the end of this year, but the pricing was shocking, $4.99 a month. That's cheaper than Netflix. And that's even cheaper than the upcoming Disney+ streaming service and it will launch on November the 1st.

Also, we got a new watch as well. The 5 series will be coming out and release later on this month. And a new iPad as well, which starts at $329 apiece. But it is still all about the iPhone for Apple. And given that we're in this crucial inflection point, where they're facing slowing iPhone sales, what's in this iPhone 11, the iPhone 11 Pro and the Pro Max?

I took a closer look for you. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

LI: Apple just unveiling its new iPhone 11, a Pro Max, six-and-a-half-inch screen.

And take a look at this, triple back camera here. So it has a wide telephoto and the ultra. And you get night mode as well for your photos going forward. Very exciting. Also four hours longer in battery life, and it's also waterproof up to four meters for 30 minutes.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LI: And given that we have 200 million of these older iPhone 6, and some say that the refresh cycle means that they will be selling hundreds of millions, at least for this year -- back to you, Neil.

CAVUTO: All right, Susan, great job.

In the meantime, John Bolton not the only national security adviser making headlines today. Wait until you see what Michael Flynn was up to.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, Michael Flynn back in court today.

Catherine Herridge has the latest on that.

Hey, Catherine. What happened?

CATHERINE HERRIDGE, CHIEF INTELLIGENCE CORRESPONDENT: Thanks, Neil. And good afternoon.

Flynn's new legal team convinced the judge to put off sentencing, giving them until mid-October to file more briefs with the court to make their case that special counsel prosecutors are guilty of misconduct and withholding evidence that would have helped Flynn's defense.

Under the microscope today, former FBI Director James Comey. During his book tour, Comey admitted he sandbag the White House over Flynn's FBI interview about his contacts with the Russian ambassador before the inauguration.

Comey said FBI leadership circumvented standard procedures and went around the White House counsel, taking advantage of the new administration.

Flynn's team told the court they believe there is a memo that shows the FBI agents concluded in January 2017 that Flynn wasn't a Russian agent, raising more questions about the underlying offense.

Federal Judge Emmet Sullivan, who threw out a conviction about a decade ago against Alaska Senator Ted Stevens over prosecutorial misconduct, wants briefs from both sides on the issues with a hearing on Brady material at the end of October. That is material favorable to the defense.

The prosecution said that they had provided all relevant records to Flynn's legal team and emphasized Flynn pled guilty to lying to the FBI, but his conversations with the Russian ambassador, he was never prosecuted for being a Russian agent -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Wow.

All right, Catherine Herridge, as always, great job, my friend, Catherine Herridge on those latest twists and turns here.

HERRIDGE: You're welcome.

CAVUTO: The twists and turns on Wall Street had everything to do with technology under a lot of fire right now, state attorneys general, maybe the Justice Department, maybe the FTC.

Not a good day for them, but a comeback for the Dow nevertheless.

Here comes "The Five."

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