This is a rush transcript from "Special Report," September 18, 2019. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

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SEN. ELIZABETH WARREN, D-MASS., PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Costs are going to go up for the wealthiest Americans, for big corporations.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Taxes, which will be in the cost.

WARREN: Yes. And hardworking middle-class families are going to see the costs go down.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But will their taxes go up?

WARREN: But here's the thing.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But here's the thing. I've listened to these answers a few times before.

REP. NANCY PELOSI, D-CALIF., HOUSE SPEAKER: And I think that what is being put forth, I said if that's what you believe, God bless you, but know what it entails and what that debate would be like. I believe that the path to health care to all is a path that is following the lead of the Affordable Care Act.

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BRET BAIER, HOST: It will play out over time, the big debate in the Democratic Party about the future of health care, whether it's Medicare for all or improving or building on Obamacare.

Our latest Fox News poll on the Democratic primary, the preference, Joe Biden still leading, a little bit less than in August and in July, but Bernie Sanders in second, Elizabeth Warren in third. The head-to-head preference ask, Joe Biden and Donald Trump, and you see a big differential there. We've talked about these early head-to-head numbers. An interesting poll here asked will President Trump be reelected? It's more of a prediction question in this poll. And you see the change from December until now, yes, 46 to 40.

With that, let's bring in our panel, Kimberley Strassel, is a member of the editorial board at "The Wall Street Journal," she's also the author of a new book, "Resistance At All Costs, How Trump Haters are Breaking America," Mara Liasson, national political correspondent for National Public Radio, and Ben Domenech, publisher of "The Federalist." OK, Kimberley, you look at these numbers, what do you see?

KIMBERLEY STRASSEL, WALL STREET JOURNAL: Well, I think what we are seeing is increasingly this looks like it is going to be a three-person race. We have all of these candidates out there. They occasionally have their moments in the sun. They go up a bit, but then they fall back down to earth. This is about Joe Biden, Bernie, and Elizabeth Warren.

And one thing that's interesting too is that Elizabeth Warren, this poll not so much, but other ones she seems to be steadily creeping up. And I guess the other question from these polls out there are, do we really know yet how the Democrats are going to turn out? This shows a lot of enthusiasm, but I think until the field clears, it's just not for certain.

BAIER: Mara, I thought it was interesting on that prediction question. It's one thing to say who you prefer. It's another thing if you think the president will be reelected, and that number is an interesting number.

LIASSON: What's interesting about that is the Democrats are really energized, but they still think he'll be reelected. If they are students of history, they have a lot of reason to think that because presidents almost always get reelected, unless there's a hostage crisis or a recession.

But what I thought was interesting about the poll, it was an outlier just in that it showed Warren going down instead of up, and the dynamic we've seen in almost all the other point is that Biden still at the top. He's softened a bit, but Elizabeth Warren has steadily come up kind of maybe a little bit at Bernie's expense, a lot at maybe Harris' expense. I think, my prediction is that this race is going to come down to a clear ideological contrast. It's going to be Warren versus Biden.

BAIER: It will be something.

Ben, one of the issues that, obviously, the Democrats are hitting hard on is gun control. It is now factor on Capitol Hill. The attorney general speaking about it today up on Capitol Hill.

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WILLIAM BARR, U.S. ATTORNEY GENERAL: The president right now is gathering information. He's starting a number of proposals. I talked to him today, but he himself is not made any firm decision on any particular proposal at this stage.

SEN. CHRISTOPHER COONS, D-DEL.: This all comes down to whether or not President Trump is going to take a clear position and stick to it.

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BAIER: One-pager about the proposal from the White House, "Consistent with the Manchin-Toomey draft legislation, a background check requirement would be extended to all, advertise commercial sales, including sales at gun shows. Background checks will be conducted either through federal firearms license or through a newly created class of license transfer agents. If a denial occurs, a referral would be made to law enforcement. If the transaction proceeds, the new form would be generated, and the record keeping requirements would be enforced via civil penalties," tracking sort of the Manchin-Toomey legislation, at least that's in the one-pager that we obtained from the White House. Is it real?

BEN DOMENECH, "THE FEDERALIST": I think this is somewhat real, but it's also very politically risky. The president needs the support of American gun owners and he needs it in a strong way in order to win reelection. It's hard to see these kinds of proposals is going over very well with gun owners who are very concerned that this type of background check legislation will ultimately lead to a national firearm registry, a database that they use -- believe to be used against them by the government. I think there are a lot of questions that need to be answered, and there needs to be a real judgment on the part of Republicans in Congress and the White House about whether this is too much of a risk for too little gain.

BAIER: Kimberley, the sense that some Republicans on the Hill are getting is that if they don't do something, that the payoff -- the payback will be devastating in 2020. Do you buy that?

STRASSEL: I'm not entirely sure. There's obviously enormous pressure on Republicans to act, which has mostly been a function of Democrats and a lot in the media who are suggesting that this background check idea or bans, for instance, on semiautomatic, certain classes of semiautomatic firearms, is actually going to hell.

I think the problem is that a lot of Republicans understand that this background check system isn't entirely -- it's not going to pay off the way Democrats are suggesting it is. It's not necessarily going to stop future incidents like we've seen in schools or other places. And so I'm not entirely sure there is, as Ben said, an enormous Second Amendment constituency, and those are core Republican voters. And if they feel the Republicans are caving to this simply to get political points when there isn't going to be an actual benefit, that could harm them more in the polls then some voters who may be turned off by the party anyway.

BAIER: Mara, quickly. I've got 10 seconds.

LIASSON: Well, that's why the president hasn't come out for anything specific. Barr is up on the Hill. There's this one page circulating, and the White House is telling us nope, that is not necessarily reflects what the president wants or what he's thinking.

BAIER: We'll follow all elements of it. Panel, as always, thank you.

When we come back, a camera designed to catch a criminal instead catches a moment that will warm your heart.

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BAIER: Finally tonight, patriotism caught on camera. A Virginia family installed a doorbell camera to try to catch an American flag vandal who had been active in their area in recent days. When looking back at their footage, they found something much more patriotic and heartwarming. Their five-year-old son Preston standing in front of the flag and reciting the "Pledge of Allegiance.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the republic for which it stands, under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.

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BAIER: He's the winner. There you go.

Thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. That's it for this “Special Report,” fair, balanced, and unafraid. "The Story" hosted by Martha MacCallum starts right now. Hey, Martha.

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