Doris Kearns Goodwin: History shows people care about economy most

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Doris Kearns Goodwin: History shows people care about economy most

Presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin weighs in on the 2020 presidential race.

This is a rush transcript from "Your World with Neil Cavuto," February 14, 2020. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

NEIL CAVUTO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: All right, thank you very much, Bill.

Well, it looks Andy McCabe is off the hook. Michael Flynn, the president's former national security adviser, not so much.

The oddity of that, and a president right now who might be battling -- kind of -- his own attorney general on how these and other cases are being handled, well, we're all over it with David Spunt outside the Justice Department on what maybe all led to this, and then at the White House, John Roberts on what the White House wants to do to respond to this.

David first.

David, what's the latest?

DAVID SPUNT, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Neil, good afternoon.

Well, Andrew McCabe has always maintained his innocence. He says that things were misunderstood, mischaracterized, and he believes that this begins a new chapter in his life, and it closes a two-plus-year chapter of investigations. He will not be charged.

The former acting director of the FBI -- remember, he came in after Comey was fired -- he's accused of leaking sensitive information to a reporter from The Wall Street Journal about an investigation into the Hillary Clinton Foundation, then lying about that to investigators.

The Justice Department's inspector general looked into the McCabe situation and agreed that he -- quote -- "lacked candor," but, ultimately, they decided not to charge him.

Here he is earlier this afternoon reacting to the news that he will not be charged by DOJ. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDREW MCCABE, FORMER ACTING FBI DIRECTOR: As glad as I am that the Justice Department and the D.C. U.S. attorney's office finally decided to do the right thing today, it is an absolute disgrace that they took two years and put my family through this experience for two years before they finally drew the obvious conclusion and one they could have drawn a long, long time ago.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SPUNT: McCabe has been a frequent target of President Trump. He was fired in 2018 by then Attorney General Jeff Sessions, and he was fired on the last day before he could get full benefits -- Neil.

CAVUTO: All right.

The reaction now from the White House, where we have John Roberts about the president taking all of this in, the oddity of it, of course, just on the heels, John, as you have reported, of the president, and his attorney general maybe having conflicting views on tweets and that sort of stuff.

JOHN ROBERTS, FOX NEWS CHIEF WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Neil, good afternoon to you.

The only sound around here at the White House this afternoon outside, at least, is the whirring of a helicopter blade on the South Lawn, as the president prepares to head off to Florida and Mar-a-Lago.

But when it comes to McCabe, it really has been crickets around here, no reaction for the president, no reaction from his campaign, no reaction from any of the staff at the White House. They are keeping this close to the vest. That could change in the next few minutes.

But don't forget that the attorney general, Bill Barr, very publicly admonished the president yesterday not to be tweeting or commenting in other forums about cases that are currently before the Department of Justice, the attorney general saying it makes it impossible for him to do his job.

But don't forget, for the past couple of years, the president has been very vocal about his belief that Andrew McCabe belongs in jail. It may be difficult for the president to resist saying something about this, though, because now the DOJ has actually washed its hands of it.

And earlier today, McCabe accused the president of using the Justice Department to carry out a political vendetta. Listen here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCABE: The pursuit of political enemies and the use of the criminal justice system and criminal investigations to exact some sort of revenge on those political enemies is not something that should be happening in the United States of America.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERTS: We're just waiting for the president to leave the Oval Office. He should be on the South Lawn in a couple of minutes. I'm led to believe that he may stop the top to the assembled media outside, Neil, so we may be back in a few minutes to change the topic.

CAVUTO: All right, we shall see, my friend. Thank you very much, John Roberts at the White House.

The oddity of Andy McCabe, who lied to Congress, getting off the hook, Michael Flynn, who lied to Congress, not really yet off the hook, and now reports that the Justice Department is looking to an outside prosecutor to look into that case.

Former DOJ prosecutor Jim Trusty joins me right now.

What do you make of all of this, Jim?

JAMES TRUSTY, FORMER FEDERAL PROSECUTOR: Well, I mean, you want to do a three-hour show, because we can talk about all this stuff?

(LAUGHTER)

TRUSTY: But, look, there's a couple of things.

I mean, one, in terms of the Flynn situation, what's really interesting there is, it's starting to shadow what happened in the Ted Stevens case, if you go back a few years. You have got Judge Emmet Sullivan. You have got a defense attorney, new round of defense attorneys coming in and saying there's something wrong with the plea, which is usually a nonstarter.

Withdrawing a guilty plea usually doesn't go very far. But now you add in a wrinkle of an independent counsel looking at that whole process. So I was a bit of a naysayer when it came to Flynn being able to withdraw his plea, but I don't think I can make a bet on that now.

In terms of Mr. McCabe, I have to say, I mean, look, not everything in life that's wrong ends up with a criminal prosecution. And it's really kind of fascinating to have a guy who was at the center of all of these decisions by Comey to have false statement prosecutions if you're connected with Trump, but to not have false statement prosecutions if you're connected with Hillary Clinton, to be in -- himself in the middle of all that.

I think he had two very good lawyers, very good picks for lawyers in terms of a former I.G. with Mike Bromwich and a talented ex-AUSA from D.C., David Schertler, that probably spent a good part of that two years pushing hard on the U.S. attorney's office with the equities and why the case shouldn't be prosecuted.

But it's real early for him to have a parade for himself and to suggests that somehow he's now a victim, when the I.G. said he lied over and over again.

CAVUTO: I'm just wondering, too, given this and some conflict of interest and the one key person certainly in the Flynn case makes me wonder whether, as unlikely as it might seem, the entire Flynn case could be dropped. What do you think?

TRUSTY: It's -- I'll tell you, I wouldn't have predicted it would get to the point where there's another lawyer, another U.S. attorney looking into the conduct.

So that tells me that this thing does have some life. Again, normally, withdrawing a guilty plea is essentially insulting the judge. It's telling the judge, you did something wrong when you found that my guilty plea was knowing intelligent and voluntary, but so far, Just Sullivan seems like he's tolerating a lot of litigation this or at least potential litigation.

So I think it's a crapshoot. I think this thing could really blow up into something much different than you would expect from what would normally just be a false statement plea and sentencing, which could be pretty routine.

CAVUTO: So what you're saying, in very adept terms, is, it's not over?

TRUSTY: It's certainly not over.

CAVUTO: Jim, thank you very much, my friend. I appreciate it.

TRUSTY: All right. Sure. See you, Neil.

CAVUTO: Now to New York City.

Michael Avenatti, remember him? Well, he's been convicted on charges that he tried to extort millions from Nike, the kind of charges, if found guilty, could land in the slam for try decades, maybe the rest of his life.

David Lee Miller has the latest.

Hey, David Lee.

DAVID LEE MILLER, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Neil.

The jury deliberated for almost three days before convicting the high- profile lawyer, Michael Avenatti, on three criminal charges, including extortion and wire fraud.

Prosecutors say the jury was told that the Avenatti demanded that the athletic shoe company Nike pay him as much as $25 million to conduct an internal investigation of the company, or he would hold a damaging news conference that alleged Nike made improper payouts to high school athletes on the eve of Nike's quarterly financial report.

Avenatti's lawyer tried to portray him as an aggressive attorney who was simply representing a client upset with Nike's cancellation of sponsorship of a high school basketball program. Following the verdict, his attorney described Avenatti's reaction.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD SREBNICK, ATTORNEY FOR MICHAEL AVENATTI: Very disappointed, as you can imagine. Thankfully, we have appellate rights that we're going to exercise, so you should expect an appeal.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LEE MILLER: And Avenatti's legal problems, they are not over. He faces two more criminal trials in federal court. Among the allegations, Neil, there is tax evasion, as well as embezzlement. He could be sentenced for the convictions today, Neil, to as much as 42 years behind bars -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Thank you for clarifying that. I botched that up going into that.

David Lee Miller, always great. Thank you, my friend.

Well, you know what? Joe Biden is raising money. He came to New York City to raise some money last night. And that figure was disappointing, but even more disappointing, what he encountered when he left.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CROWD: Drop out, Joe! Drop out, Joe! Drop out, Joe!

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Skip Nevada! Skip South Carolina! Just go home early!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: How's the campaign doing, sir?

JOSEPH BIDEN (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Feeling good.

CAVUTO: How do you feel about your campaign, sir?

BIDEN: Well, we're heading down (INAUDIBLE)

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAVUTO: We're heading down the right straw. Well, I have said dumber things. Let's put it that way.

Anyway, Joe Biden was hoping to raise a million bucks in New York. Didn't quite meet that goal.

Our Charlie Gasparino has been doing some digging.

What have you found out, my friend?

CHARLIE GASPARINO, FOX NEWS SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Where did he say he was going ?

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: I didn't know, but it's the straw or whatever.

GASPARINO: Well, maybe that's why he only raised $800,000.

I mean, let's be really clear here. During the -- early in the campaign, when he was the front-runner, Joe Biden at Jim Chanos, he's a financier's home raised $500,000. That was the biggest draw yet. And people thought a lot more would come in.

Last night, at two fund-raisers, he barely got $800,000, sources are telling the FOX Business Network. Now, while that is not chump change, it's not what they were expecting. And, clearly, what we have now is a campaign that's in trouble, both in polls, as you know, Neil, and also in the money race.

If they don't do well in South Carolina and Nevada, this race is essentially over, not just because of the polls, Neil, but because of money. They won't have a -- they probably -- they might not have enough money to get through Super Tuesday.

So that's where he is right now. And because of this, Neil, what we understand, what sources are telling us -- these are -- and these are Democratic Party sources. They're close to Mr. Biden. They would vote for him, they would give him money.

A lot of them are telling us they think that he should have possibly step down sooner. We interviewed Leon Cooperman, a longtime financier, independent, but has been -- voted for Democrats in the past, didn't like Barack Obama, I should point out. But he'd be the type of person that would vote for Biden.

He's throwing his hat in the ring for Mike Bloomberg, the former New York City mayor. He's saying he's the guy with the money and the firepower and the message to beat -- to win the nomination and to beat Donald Trump.

As you know, FOX Business was first to report, my producer, Lydia Moynihan, who did great work both on getting the Cooperman interview, which is on FOXBusiness.com, and this number, $2 billion.

We have learned that he's willing to spend $2 billion. We were the first to report that. Cooperman believes that type of money is the type of money that someone who could beat Donald Trump, who will raise about $1.5 billion. So we're talking about a lot of billions here.

The problem is, is that Joe Biden doesn't have a lot of those billions and maybe won't.

CAVUTO: Yes.

GASPARINO: And the calls are coming in loud and clear that he should step down and let the moderate wing of the party move to Mike Bloomberg to possibly defeat Bernie Sanders -- back to you.

CAVUTO: All right, we shall see, my friend. Thank you.

Very good reporting, and on Lydia as well.

So here's where we stand right now. Mike Bloomberg seems to have the money and all to get the clout, to get the commercials and rise in the polls, including in one that features him leading in that delegate-rich state we call Florida, and not only there. He is surging in national polls as well.

What to make of that Bloomberg threat with New York City Councilman Joe Borelli, The Wall Street Journal's Jillian Melchior, and, of course, the Democratic strategist Robert Patillo.

Robert, end it with you.

This notion that maybe we're seeing a shift in favorites, it's always premature to go in a moment and assume a candidate is finished. They said the same about Bill Clinton for a while when he was losing a string of primaries kind of at this stage.

They said the same about John McCain ahead of New Hampshire, when he eked a victory, so, again, kind of at this stage, so be careful.

But, having said that, are you hearing from colleagues they're worried about Biden?

ROBERT PATILLO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: No, not yet.

Let's understand that Bernie Sanders has 21 delegates out of the 2,000 delegates you need to win. Joe Biden has a very clear strategy, the same strategy he's had since the beginning, do well in South Carolina, go through Super Tuesday, where you have states that are diverse that really represent the Democratic Party, and then have a delegate fight on through the primary.

So let's understand, Buttigieg doesn't have a path to victory after New Hampshire. Elizabeth Warren's campaign has cratered and she's coming in third and fourth place in states she should be strong in. Amy Klobuchar has not picked up national momentum.

Joe Biden is still the front-runner in this race, despite losing the first two primaries. So I think all the hyperbole in the 24-hour news cycle and the new shiny object of Mike Bloomberg is taking the idea away from that.

But let's understand, Joe Biden's held strong at the top of the polls for over a year, since he entered the race. And I don't think that you're going to see the base of the Democratic Party jump ship.

Let's wait for actual voting to start, not just the two early primary states.

CAVUTO: All right, fair enough.

Joe Borelli, at this stage of the race, I mean, a lot of folks were saying there was no way, even with his New Hampshire victory, that Donald Trump could ever get the nomination, that he would peter out by then. So maybe that is a good reminder from Robert. What do you think?

JOE BORELLI (R), NEW YORK CITY COUNCIL: Look, I'm certainly not complacent against any one of the candidates.

But look at how far the story arc of Joe Biden went. I mean, we just heard that he was leading in the polls for a year. That's true, except today, when it counts. I mean, Super Tuesday is going to be a big test for him. Obviously, he's staking his Waterloo on South Carolina, but Super Tuesday, just a couple of days later, there are two delegate-rich states, California and Texas.

He is not leading in either of those. In North Carolina, the third largest state on that day, he's also plummeting in the polls. So this is not a good position for someone who was billed as the Democratic primary front-runner to be in.

And I would be surprised if he's able to go the distance, given the paucity in his fund-raising over the past two weeks or three weeks.

CAVUTO: Jillian, we were hoping or maybe expecting the president would say something on his way to Marine One. I think he's going down to Florida, Mar-a-Lago, this weekend. He didn't opt to stop and talk to reporters.

But I'm wondering, with all these other developments, and the division among the Democrats, whether the president then does or should heed the advice of Republicans, who, when it comes to his tweets on the Justice Department and cases pending or not pending, just not say anything?

Because the only one who could lose this for Donald Trump, they say, is Donald Trump. What do you think?

JILLIAN MELCHIOR, THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: Yes, he's certainly his own worst enemy.

I mean, you're coming off of the impeachment. You're coming off of Iowa, Democrats in disarray. And still, I think it's one of those situations where, if you just step back a little bit, Democrats are going to make themselves continue to look bad.

But he's got to be in the spotlight. That's something that we have usually seen.

But I want to push back on this idea that Joe Biden is the front-runner. I have never heard of a front-runner that's not in front. So I think I think it's an unusual case to be making after what we saw in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's really got his work cut out for him.

But I do think that that leaves a moderate-sized hole in this Democratic primary race. And I'm just not sure who's going to fill it. Bloomberg is pushing very hard to fill it. But the energy and the momentum within this party right now is on the hard left.

And I think the central argument for Biden all along has been his electability. We have seen so far in New Hampshire and Iowa that voters aren't turning out to support him. So I think that gets at one of the central claims of his candidacy.

CAVUTO: I guess it all comes down -- and, Robert, you reminded me of this -- of the African-American vote and how it sorts out. South Carolina will be a test of that, as will the union vote, particularly in a place like Nevada, will have a caucus next week.

I'm just wondering, what could be the game-changer for Biden? Or who else emerges in that gap? I mean, that criticism of party regulars is that you will never see Sanders pick up that kind of support. So, open convention. What do you say?

PATILLO: Well, I think we have to understand, even in a state like Iowa, where Bernie Sanders was supposed to do well, 70 percent of caucus-goers voted against Bernie Sanders.

In a state like New Hampshire, which borders Vermont, where he won all counties in 2016, 72 percent of voters voted against Bernie Sanders there. So, what Joe Biden has to do is get out of the shadow of impeachment, get out of the shadow of Hunter Biden, a year-long attack on his campaign and on his record, and remind voters exactly what he stands for and the normalcy that he's trying to bring America back to.

This -- and I think Bloomberg is doing well right now because he is unvetted. He's running commercials. No one has asked him questions. Nobody talks about his policy initiatives. Nobody has actually gotten down into the nitty-gritty with him.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Well, he wouldn't be surging if Biden weren't dropping, right?

PATILLO: Well, he is surging because he's put $200 million into commercials.

McDonald's doesn't have the best hamburgers. They have the best advertising. The same thing with Bloomberg.

CAVUTO: Yes.

MELCHIOR: That's an argument, though, that's going to really benefit Bernie supporters, rather than Biden supporters.

They have all along been really attracted to the idea that the establishment is rigged against their candidate. A lot of frustration.

CAVUTO: Yes, very, very early, as you all remind me, again, 20 delegates for the highest seeker right now, and you need close to 2,000. So there's a long way to go here.

Guys, thank you all very, very much.

This Valentine's Day, a lot of people just have so many great thoughts and great memories, except my next guest, who knows what happened two years ago this very day, the Parkland shooting. Andrew Pollack lost his beautiful daughter that day.

Don't wish him happy a Valentine's Day -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANDREW POLLACK, FATHER OF SHOOTING VICTIM: There should have been one schools and we should have fixed it. And I'm pissed because my daughter, I'm not going to see again. She's not here. She's not here.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAVUTO: Rarely have I ever seen anything so gripping coming out of the White House, but that was Andrew Pollack. He was the father of Parkland shooting victim Meadow, and he was at the White House.

And he was angry that politicians talked a good game on trying to get a handle on this. But they didn't. They wouldn't. And his daughter was dead. And he was furious. And he was a dad looking to avoid this in the future.

He has devoted his life to that and much more in memory of his beautiful girl.

He joins me right now out of Eagle Point, Oregon, via Skype.

Andrew, it's very good to see you, I'm sorry under these circumstances. How are you holding up?

POLLACK: Well, I'm holding up.

Today's not much different than any other day for a parent that loses one of his children. It's a day of reflecting back on my daughter's life and what we accomplished over the last year to try and make schools safe -- safer and to honor my daughter.

So today is just a day where lazing around and just thinking about my daughter a whole lot and what we have accomplished.

CAVUTO: Where were you and what were you doing, Andrew, when you got the news?

POLLACK: Well, when I got the news, Neil, is that what you said?

CAVUTO: Yes.

POLLACK: Well, it was Valentine's Day. And there are no more Valentine's Days for me after what happened with my daughter.

And like any other parent, I thought that it couldn't happen. It can't be. And as the day went on -- I was with my wife on a picnic. As the day went on, reality got to sink in, when I couldn't reach my daughter, and I knew that she was gone forever.

And it's something that sticks with me day in. Like, today, calling it anniversary to me is really brutal, because, when I think of anniversaries, I think of happy occasions. To me, today is not a happy occasion and really shouldn't be called an anniversary.

CAVUTO: You have taken this tragedy and tried to make it a cause.

You work with then Governor Scott in California, now Senator Scott, along with the president, to tighten up safety outside schools, ironically, outside Parkland. There was security there. He just didn't go into school. And there were a lot of people botching it up from the get-go.

What has happened since?

POLLACK: Well, we accomplished a lot in Florida and with the president. The president just had the Parkland parents at the White House this week.

They opened a Web site, SchoolSafety.org, where they list over 100 recommendations and best practices on school safety.

But what I have learned over the last year, Neil, it (INAUDIBLE) locally. The president can't fix anything for you at a local level with the local school board. The school board dictates their policies and their own budget, and they're going to do whatever they want with that money, and they're going to -- they don't have to follow any federal guidelines.

So it's really up to parents, locally, to get involved at a local level and make changes. Don't look for your governor or your senator or the president. It's really up to the parents. They dictate, and they're responsible where they put their children in school.

CAVUTO: And there was a lot going on with the shooter and allowances that were being made for kids with problems that other parents were unaware of.

And that is still out there as a possible threat. They don't hold grow to be shooters and attack and kill other kids. But do you see anything on that front that's been addressed?

POLLACK: Well, what happens is, when the last and certain people hijack school safety, and all they look at is gun control, it really distracts from what we could really do as a country, and that's make our schools safe.

And that's what I -- that's what I work on day in and day out with different that -- with different initiatives to make our schools safer. And when you look at just gun control, it doesn't work.

So, in Florida, they are looking at legislation to put different type of situations in the hands of law enforcement and take it away from the school district.

Like restorative justice programs that are practiced in a lot of these school districts, still in Broward, I feel law enforcement should be involved with the restorative justice programs, and they are making leeway.

But it's on the parents. The parents have to pressure their school districts locally.

CAVUTO: And, indeed, you have done that and much more, Andrew Pollack.

"The Day Meadow Died" was the runaway bestseller that addressed this and hit a nerve in this country. He has not given up an inch. He has not given up the fight. And the tragedy of Meadow's death was, she died trying to shield and save other students.

I cannot comprehend what you have been through and continue to go through, Andrew. Thank you, my friend.

We will have more after this.

POLLACK: Thank you, Neil.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)  CAVUTO: All right, Marine One has arrived at Joint Base Andrews. The president is going to be taking off for Florida this weekend at Mar-a-Lago.

But he's so far not said anything to the press about these Andy McCabe developments and the Justice Department dropping criminal charges.

We will keep you posted if he does.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)  CAVUTO: All right, now reports that warmer weather might not make this coronavirus just go away and other indications that the spread of human-to- human contact could continue and pick up steam.

The CDC is already a warning that this is something that could happen whether the people are showing symptoms or not. So just be careful.

Family physician Dr. Jennifer Caudle joins me now.

Doctor, good to have you.

These latest findings seem to indicate this could drag on a while. I mean, what's your gut telling you?

DR. JENNIFER CAUDLE, FAMILY PHYSICIAN: Well, Neil, that's a great question.

I mean, my gut is telling me that we just don't know the whole story yet. And that's what scientists and researchers are saying as well. There's so much that we don't know about this virus. We're literally learning minute by minute, hour by hour, day by day.

And, right now, it's just not possible to predict exactly how long this will go on.

CAVUTO: These microscopic images we're getting, the first, I guess, of this virus, it's different than SARS, in that it could be a more stubborn strain. What do they mean by that, Doctor?

CAUDLE: Well, so, I think it's important to remember that COVID-19, which is what we're now calling coronavirus, this particular strain, is a type of coronavirus.

CAVUTO: Right.

CAUDLE: Coronavirus is a family of viruses. It's like a big -- it's a big family.

And there's multiple types of viruses within that family. COVID-19 is one, but MERS and SARS are also ones as well. We have -- despite all the information we don't know about this virus, there are a lot of things that we do know.

We do know that it spread -- it can be spread person to person through upper respiratory droplets. We know the symptoms it causes. But in terms of how long it remains infectious, how long it's going to last and things like that, there's still a lot of other things that we don't know.

I should say, Neil, this is one of the reasons why, in today's press conference from the CDC, they talked about really focusing on surveillance and containment. That is, taking a look even closer at the virus, so we can understand its patterns and help us better understand maybe what we can predict in the future, especially here in this country.

CAVUTO: All right, we will watch closely, Doctor. Thank you very, very much. I appreciate it.

CAUDLE: Thank you. Thank you.

CAVUTO: All right, we will continue to look at this tomorrow morning on my live show beginning at 10:00 a.m.

We will be talking to the homeland security acting secretary, Chad Wolf, on what the U.S. is doing to respond to this outbreak, whether we have it under control, and much more, again, 10:00 a.m. on "Cavuto Live" Eastern time.

Meanwhile, there is a consensus building that Joe Biden can't win. He's raising less money. He's dropping in the polls. But history says don't rule him out. Woe to those who do.

Who knows better than Doris Kearns Goodwin? She's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right. Well, they're saying that Joe Biden is finished.

And reports, of course, you might have heard on FOX Business, which, if you don't get, you should demand, that he raised $800,000 in the passing of the tin cup in New York, rather than the $1 million sum expected.

But, again, this feels an argument he's toast, he's finished. Be careful of that. History proves again and again, well, that Donald Trump was finished, when he wasn't, that Bill Clinton was going nowhere, until he was, that Jimmy Carter was a joke, until, well, I guess he wasn't a joke.

Who knows that better than multiple bestselling author Doris Kearns Goodwin, now an executive producer of the miniseries "Washington" premiering this Sunday. She's a busy woman.

I was saying, you have the same 24 hours I do, but I...

DORIS KEARNS GOODWIN, PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: You do plenty too.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: I stream a lot in my spare time, but I can't wait to watch this.

Where is it going to be? It's going to be on...

GOODWIN: It's on the History Channel. So it'll be three nights, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday.

I learned so much about George Washington with the history experts, and it's got actual drama in too. And you see George.

CAVUTO: It does. It looks pretty neat. It looks pretty neat.

GOODWIN: Yes, it's very exciting.

CAVUTO: Who's the actor who plays him?

GOODWIN: Nicholas Rowe. He was young Sherlock Holmes.

(CROSSTALK)

GOODWIN: And he's got a ponytail, not that hair that's sticking out. He looks great.

CAVUTO: No, it looks fun. It looks fun. I look forward to that.

GOODWIN: One of the historians said he's a stud.

CAVUTO: There we go.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: I don't know if the same can be applied to Joe Biden. See how...

GOODWIN: A great transition.

CAVUTO: But everyone is saying he's done. And I'm -- he might be, but you know a lot about the history of people we have written. What do you think?

GOODWIN: Yes.

I think it's much too early. It's like the first quarter in a football game. You never know how it's going to come out. And the country is split, the party is split. The turnout will make all the difference in the world. And we don't know where people are going to go yet.

And I think the Democratic Party hasn't figured out who it is. So I don't think he's finished. I don't think Sanders is the winner. I think mysterious things could happen.

CAVUTO: All the party pros, Doris, are worried about Sanders, that he can't win.

And I'm old enough to remember when the Carter folks were hoping after George Bush Sr. won Iowa that it wouldn't be him. They much preferred Ronald Reagan, because they thought they could squish him like a bug.

We know how that worked out. So is it a basic assumption that nominating Sanders is a disaster for the party?

GOODWIN: Well, what the polls show in terms of who's voted so far is that the people in the moderate are winning out over the people who are more leftist.

And that generally tends to be true in campaigns. I mean, when you think of...

CAVUTO: There are a lot of them, right, a lot of candidates, too.

GOODWIN: There's a lot of them, but when you add them together...

CAVUTO: Got it.

GOODWIN: So I can understand why.

The question is whether or not the progressive left has built the public sentiment behind the things they care about. If Medicare for all were overwhelmingly wanted by the Democratic Party, that would be one thing, but it's still isn't. People seem, even in the party, to want to have their own insurance companies and not give that up and go more gradually towards some greater changes.

So unless you change the policies and the public -- that's what Lincoln said. With public sentiment, anything is possible, without it, nothing. So the real goal for the progressives, if they want to win, is, they have got to change public sentiment.

CAVUTO: All right.

You mentioned Abraham Lincoln. He was the beneficiary of a brokered convention.

GOODWIN: He sure was.

CAVUTO: Right.

GOODWIN: And you know what is interesting? Oh, keep going.

CAVUTO: No, no, go.

GOODWIN: What's interesting is, there, the reason he won is that there was a conservative candidate, a radical candidate. He was the central guy.

And he said to the people, I'm not your first love, I know I'm not your first love, but if you don't get your first love, come to me. So he hadn't attacked the other guys. When they didn't win on the first ballot, they go to Abraham Lincoln.

He's the darkest, darkest horse of all the candidates. He wins. Nobody thought he would win.

CAVUTO: But he was a known quantity, right?

Now, the known quantities here, would they ever go outside to like a Michael Bloomberg?

GOODWIN: Possibly.

I think we cannot tell what's happening. I think elections now are so unpredictable. The desire on the part of the Democratic Party to find somebody who can win is pretty strong. The ads he's making may indeed give him an edge.

I don't think we know. I wouldn't want to predict what is happening.

CAVUTO: Well, here's what I'm predicting.

You're the political expert and history expert.

GOODWIN: OK. But I'm history. I'm going back.

CAVUTO: I'm a numbers nerd.

GOODWIN: OK.

CAVUTO: And I actually have a spreadsheet on this, to show you what a nerd I am.

GOODWIN: Whoa.

CAVUTO: But I think, given the apportionment that they have for delegates -- you get 50 percent, you get a share the delegates -- and given the crowd we have in there and the back-and-forth, it is distinctly possible that you arrive at the convention without someone having anywhere near what they would need on a first ballot.

Now, I know others have come in to a convention with a healthy lead in delegates. Barack Obama had that. I guess John Kennedy had it. But they can't close the deal until the voting starts. So would they reward Bernie Sanders if he simply had the most delegates going in?

GOODWIN: I think if they don't have a majority when you get into that convention, which is unlikely in these later years, because usually you do, then I think anything's possible.

You know what I keep thinking of? There was a convention in 1924, when there was a big split between two people, Al Smith and McAdoo. It went on for more than 16 days almost and 103 ballots. And, finally, neither one got the numbers that they needed.

So a complete other person, John Davis, wins. So who knows? I mean, I suppose all of us who love politics are looking for that.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Well, normally, those types of divisions, they don't emerge victorious.

GOODWIN: That's exactly right.

CAVUTO: Now, and so I'm beginning to wonder if there's this much division -- now, of course, Democrats four years ago were salivating at that, at the division among Republicans, who recalibrated and, oddly enough, ended up supporting the guy they were trying to tear down prior.

I don't know what would happen here, but they have got to leave united or appearing united. Can they?

GOODWIN: And if a convention is not united, and it appears like there's non-energy behind one person, none of those candidates usually win.

Look at the '68 convention with the violence that happened. Look at the 1924 convention.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: It was amazing how close Hubert Humphrey came that year, with everything else that was going on.

GOODWIN: Right.

CAVUTO: But then there are outside candidates who all of a sudden emerge as landslide winners.

I was thinking of Ronald Reagan, not only in 1980, but again in 1984. And I'm thinking to myself, could, given the strong economy and everything, the one thing few people are counting on, not just a Trump victory, but a Trump landslide. Do you see that?

GOODWIN: I think anything's possible. I really do now.

I mean, I think that's unlikely if the Democrats don't -- don't really get a majority somewhere along the line in some of these states, and a landslide happens.

What happened to the energy two years ago in the midterms, where the Democratic Party was able before impeachment to talk about issues that seem to have a majority...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Health care did it.

GOODWIN: Health care was huge.

CAVUTO: And the economy had dramatically improved in that time.

(CROSSTALK)

GOODWIN: That's still true. Health care is still out there.

CAVUTO: Right. Many were telling me that in New Hampshire and Iowa, that, no, we think these issues, will trump the good economy, no pun intended.

What do you think of that? Because that's tough to do, usually.

GOODWIN: It's very tough.

I mean, history shows that people care more than anything about the economy. The economy is not just a job. It's your sense of dignity, you go to work during the day, you feel a sense of the possibility of the future.

The question is whether or not one can argue that, even if the economy has more jobs than it did before, many of those jobs are not paying higher wages, that people are still struggling from paycheck to paycheck, that health care is a problem.

CAVUTO: But it's still a tough fight to make, right?

GOODWIN: Of course it's a tough fight to make.

I mean, the only time that -- like, in 1966, in the midterm elections, for LBJ, the economy was going very well still, but people lost their credibility in him, and the Vietnam War was heating up, and they lost those midterms.

But that's unusual when it happens. So we will have to see. But I still say that things are so jittery in this country right now. Things change. Breaking news happens. Something could happen between now and then. There could be a foreign policy event that either goes for or against him.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: What about Pete Buttigieg in this environment?

You have already heard the Rush Limbaugh stuff against, that they're going to pound on the gay issue. Is this country ready to elect a gay person president?

GOODWIN: Well, polls show yes, whether people are telling the truth or not.

I mean, that's the interesting thing. When we worry about where we have come as a nation in terms of social justice and economic justice, overwhelming majority of the polls say, yes, we'd have a black American, yes, we'd have a woman. We have got 90 percent that say yes.

And I think it's like 78 or 80 percent that say, yes, we would take a gay man. So I don't know how that will play out. I think the more troubling thing is whether or not people will feel he has enough experience from South Bend, Indiana, in a small city.

CAVUTO: And you're right. That's the kind of stuff that should decide it, not..

GOODWIN: What should really decide it -- this is what I think about so much -- there should be a leadership index.

What kind of teams have these people created? What kind of experience have they shown? Have they grown in power? Do they acknowledge their errors? Have they grown in office and learned from their mistakes? We should be looking back at the kind of leaders they were.

I'd love to know much more about what kind of a mayor he was, what kind of a governor such and such was. What kind of a senator was Sanders? How much legislation did he get passed? We don't talk about these things.

We're caught with who zings who in a debate, who raises the most money. We are upside down in terms of how we evaluate our candidates.

CAVUTO: I love to focus on their money, Doris. What are you saying?

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Always good seeing you. I look forward to this "Washington."

GOODWIN: Me too.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: The star is a stud. So that's all you need.

We have a lot more coming up. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)  CAVUTO: All right, Democrat Mike Bloomberg is playing some the biggest meme makers -- paying them, I should say, on the Internet to post sponsored candidate promoting his campaign.

Is this really going to win over young folks?

Well, let's ask them, because we have model Elizabeth Pipko with us, "Your World" audio technician bestselling author Dion Baia, and Kat Timpf.

By the way, you can also see Kat on FOX Nation as the host "Sincerely Kat."

KATHERINE TIMPF, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Yes.

CAVUTO: All right, so end it with you, begin with you then on this.

Do memes make a difference?

TIMPF: No. I would like to think no.

People do like a candidate with a sense of humor. I think Donald Trump, even if you hate him, a lot of people say he's not funny. They're wrong. You don't have to like him. He's a hilarious guy.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Stand-up comic.

(CROSSTALK)

TIMPF: OK, but the difference with Michael Bloomberg here is, he's not funny at all. OK?

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Oh, I don't know about that.

TIMPF: He's clearly hiring someone else to do these things.

(CROSSTALK)

DION BAIA, FOX NEWS AUDIO TECHNICIAN: Well, he's releasing these -- they look like messages with the person who's putting out...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Is this effective?

BAIA: Maybe for some people they are. I don't really know. I couldn't really tell you.

CAVUTO: Sounds like you're saying no.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: I would just say, it's funny that he's playing on himself and he's trying to make himself look square and make himself look old. Like, am I going to be hip with the young people?

And he's probably dump trucks of money that he's putting out for this, which is obviously working, because we're talking about him.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Would it make a difference to you? We are talking about it, right?

ELIZABETH PIPKO, MODEL: I mean, no.

But it's like you said. Like, clearly, this means that what Donald Trump did worked, because Bloomberg thinks that he needs to do the same thing to get some numbers up there.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: But the inference seems to be that young people, that's all you look at, that kind of stuff.

PIPKO: It's kind of insulting.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Well, they are -- they -- we are addicted to our devices.

TIMPF: I am.

BAIA: You are going to see this.

And he's putting it in the right spot.

CAVUTO: What were you saying?

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Not the Instagram.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: By the way, Prince Harry and Meghan Markle are saying cheerio to Buckingham Palace, as they dismantle their office there.

So are they all ready to move on? You're married to a British woman.

BAIA: That is correct.

CAVUTO: And a big royal fan.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Yes, she is, yes, yes, full disclosure.

CAVUTO: Not so much yours.

BAIA: No, she hates me.

(LAUGHTER)

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: But what does she think? What do you think of this?

BAIA: I mean, they have to downsize because they're moving. They're going to be moving I guess either into North America or Canada, so you can't bring all the staff with you, especially since they are going to try to step back somewhat from their royal roles.

CAVUTO: But they still have royal titles, don't they?

TIMPF: Yes. And they also have tons of money, tons of influence.

I want to make it clear I am pro-Megxit. I am team Meg. However, it bothers me when people talk about this like they're taking some big risk.

Like, I'm sorry, they are not like the kid hopping on the Greyhound bus to Los Angeles from Kansas with nothing but a suitcase, a guitar, and a dream. Like, that's what is happening right now.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Oliver Twist story, this is not.

(CROSSTALK)

TIMPF: Come on.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Don't they have a deal with Goldman Sachs potentially? Is that right?

PIPKO: Yes, I think that's what they're talking about.

BAIA: Yes. And they branded the Sussex name brand already. So, this already -- they're going to be printing the cash in the basement.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Are they definitely moving to Canada? Is that definitely whether they're going?

PIPKO: Yes.

TIMPF: I would say yes. And I know them quite well.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: I knew I had some royals here.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: By the way, Cupid's arrow is probably hitting your wallet this Valentine's Day, average willing to spend upwards close to $200, $196, to be exact.

That is up 21 percent from last year. That's pretty surprising, isn't it?

TIMPF: Here's the thing.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: It's men spending this money. It's not women.

BAIA: That's true.

TIMPF: But it's good.

OK, hold on, hold on, hold on.

BAIA: Point of order.

TIMPF: Don't man-terrupt me.

BAIA: Don't man-terrupt me.

(CROSSTALK)

TIMPF: Here's what happens all the other days of the year.

It's so much more expensive just to exist as a woman. You have already saved enough money just by being a dude. If you're on a date with a woman on Valentine's Day, and you're worried about how much money you're spending...

BAIA: Objection, Your Honor.

(CROSSTALK)

TIMPF: The stuff that she has used to paint her face alone costs more than $196.

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Can I approach on the bench, please?

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: No.

What do you think?

PIPKO: No, I mean, clearly we invest more into a relationship than they do just to look presentable in front of them. So you owe us at least...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Wow. Wow.

BAIA: Yes, I do agree that this is a great day to show your love for your significant other.

(CROSSTALK)

TIMPF: Using cash.

CAVUTO: Why doesn't it work the other way? Or you don't get anything for your boyfriend or anything?

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Send cash.

TIMPF: I give him the company of a beautiful woman.

CAVUTO: Oh, my gosh.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Wow.

Your thoughts on this?

PIPKO: Well, this year, I gave my husband a card, and he came home today with, like, flowers and gifts and everything in between. So, clearly...

(CROSSTALK)

PIPKO: ... right. And, I mean, he owed me, clearly.

TIMPF: Maybe I will get a card...

(CROSSTALK)

BAIA: Is today's Valentine's Day?

(CROSSTALK)

(LAUGHTER)

BAIA: What have I missed, dear?

CAVUTO: Oh, my gosh, is this today? Look at the time.

(LAUGHTER)

CAVUTO: Honey, I'm on way home right now.

All right, we have a lot more coming up, including what's going on in, yes, Vegas, baby -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, here's how smart our Jonathan Hunt is.

The Nevada caucuses aren't until next Saturday night, not this Saturday, not tomorrow, next Saturday, and he's already camped out there. And he has been all week.

He joins us right now from Vegas, baby.

Jonathan, good to see you, my friend. How's it looking there?

JONATHAN HUNT, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Neil, good afternoon.

We just got a fascinating new poll from The Las Vegas Review-Journal conducted by the Republican-leaning WPA Intelligence organization. It shows Senator Bernie Sanders with a comfortable lead, polling around 25 percent among likely caucus-goers. He is followed by Joe Biden, interestingly, in second place with 18 percent. Interesting to see if that holds up, then Elizabeth Warren and the rest.

The union vote may be decisive here. Neil. The powerful Culinary Union hasn't endorsed any one candidate. So all of them are out there trying to get union members to vote for them.

Senator Amy Klobuchar, for instance, was at a union-run health care center today. She said, I'm basically running because of the unions.

That's the message they're all sending, caucus day, February 22, Neil.

CAVUTO: Look forward to it, my friend. Enjoy Vegas.

In the meantime, the acting homeland security secretary, Chad Wolf, will be joining us tomorrow, along with the acting attorney general, Matthew Whitaker, when he is looking at what is happening now, after this.

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