Do economic models predict a Trump re-election in 2020?

close

Video

Do economic models predict a Trump re-election in 2020?

Panel reaction and analysis on New York Times op-ed by former Obama treasury adviser Steven Rattner.

This is a rush transcript from "Your World," May 28, 2019. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

NEIL CAVUTO, HOST: All right, we are top of tornadoes touching down, and flood -- floodwaters rising up at a rapid rate.

Hello, everyone. Welcome. I'm Neil Cavuto. And this is "Your World."

This is what it looks like in parts of Ohio right now, after multiple twisters strike the Midwest. Here's the very latest we have for you. Rescue workers are going door to door right now searching for survivors throughout the Dayton, Ohio, area. At least one person in nearby Toledo, Ohio, has been killed.

Power companies scrambling to restore electricity to more than five million people across the state without it. We're about to get an update from the mayor of Dayton on all of it.

Then there's the flooding, a lot of flooding, so bad in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas, that evacuations are under way.

And so is our coverage with Mike Tobin on the cleanup that is just beginning, Adam Klotz, on where the next set of storms is heading, and Matt Finn in flood-ravaged Arkansas, where the rain is coming.

First to Mike in Harrison Township, Ohio.

Hey, Mike.

MIKE TOBIN, CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Neil.

The National Weather Service now confirms that at least two of the tornadoes that touched down here in the Dayton area reached a 3 out of 5 on the enhanced Fujita scale, so very significant tornadoes that have been touching down around here.

And you had more than 50 that popped up in this line of storms that formed up around the nation's midsection. So it just stands to reason that some of them are going to hit population centers or residential areas like Harrison Township here, when we look around and we can see so much of this destruction.

Now, the people in this area heard the warnings, they took them seriously. They got into their basements or they got to the center of the house. Now what they are doing, they luckily, because they heeded the warnings, they survived.

Now what we're seeing in these areas are people who have friends and family that are coming out here. They're coming out with tarp, with particle board to bolt up the windows, get tarps up over the roof, minimize the damage, get the belongings that they can salvage out to safety.

And they're all very thankful that they made it through this one -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Mike, thank you very much. Excellent reporting today.

Now to Arkansas, where parts of that state neighboring Oklahoma are evacuating ahead of potentially historic flooding.

Matt Finn is there right now in Fort Smith, Arkansas.

Hey, Matt.

MATT FINN, CORRESPONDENT: Neil, city officials tell us they expect up to 1,000 homes to be affected or flooded by the time the Arkansas River crests here at 42 feet tomorrow.

That forecast is the highest river level this area has ever seen and double the flood stage. And you can see, unfortunately, the Arkansas River has already engulfed Highway 22 here, a four-lane road, and many businesses and structures in this area.

This is a major intersection that looks more like a lake. The raging Arkansas River, we have been watching rise and increase in its intensity.

And not far from here, we spoke to some people in residential neighborhoods who say they grabbed things like pictures and work clothes and then evacuated their homes or they assisted their neighbors.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NANCY MAURER, ARKANSAS: You know, it's just everybody is in it together as far as I have been able to see. And they -- everybody's trying to help one another. And that's the main thing, get through it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

FINN: The water on the Arkansas River is headed south. The National Guard tells FOX News this afternoon that Yell County is a concern right now. Sandbagging is happening there.

Also, the mayor of North Little Rock has already declared an emergency and a lot of this water is headed towards the capital. And, unfortunately, Neil, this area has been battered by storms and flooding. And there is several inches of rain that could possibly reach this area in the coming days -- Neil.

CAVUTO: All right, thank you, my friend.

And more tornadoes and rain, a lot more flooding. There's really no end in sight to all this.

FOX News meteorologist Adam Klotz has more.

Hey, Adam.

ADAM KLOTZ, METEOROLOGIST: Hey there, Neil.

Yes, unfortunately, we are again looking at a line of storms setting up right across the country's midsection exactly like we saw yesterday. So this is the line we're talking about really just now beginning able to form.

A couple of spots to really pay attention to, even moving a little farther east, so areas all around Pennsylvania. That is a tornado watch in place. That means the ingredients are there. Every one of these pink boxes, that's a tornado warning storm. So we already begin to see those pop up this afternoon. It will only intensify as we get a little bit later in the day.

Everything in the yellow highlighted box across Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, that is a thunderstorm watch, which means the ingredients are there to see 60 mile-an-hour winds, hail, very heavy rain. That's going to continue to be an issue. And then we stretch even farther west and everything again in the red, those are tornado watches.

It is a large system that could produce a lot of storms from now overnight, really highlighting an area for tornadoes would be cross portions of Missouri and a little farther off Kansas.

This is a spot to pay attention to where we could see some big tornadoes here over the next several hours into tomorrow morning. Unfortunately, the setup for severe weather again looks very similar for tomorrow.

This is from the National Weather Service. It's a place to watch, severe weather again tomorrow. You don't see a whole lot of movement there. So we are stuck in this pattern where the same places are getting heavy rain, getting those tornadoes. And then that's, of course, been causing a lot of this flooding.

These are the rainfall totals over the last week, widespread, five to 10 inches. And when you see that much rain, Neil, no surprise here, even with rain getting up into Illinois -- or -- excuse me -- Iowa, all of that has to funnel its way south.

The rivers are going to continue to rise, as we deal with this over the next week and even longer.

CAVUTO: All right, Adam, thank you very much.

With us right now out of Dayton, Ohio, Nan Whaley.

Mayor, thank you for taking the time, joining me on the phone.

How are things looking there?

NAN WHALEY, MAYOR OF DAYTON, OHIO: Well, it's been a pretty tough day for a lot of folks in our community.

We have had some devastation like I have never seen before. And we're just really grateful that in our area there's been no fatalities.

CAVUTO: Now, the damage looks just awful.

Mayor, I know you have had a chance to go out and see some of it. What can you tell us?

WHALEY: Well, I think that, when you look at tornadoes, you really see just how random they are.

We were in a part of our town, in Old North Dayton. Houses and then complete blocks were destroyed, but it missed our children's hospital, which we're super, super thankful for.

It affects -- it's affected our water system. It took the pump stations, because we have no electricity. So we have been working to get our water back online. We're on a boil advisory for about 400,000 residents right now.

So even if you didn't have some of the devastation here, you're still not having water that you can consume. So we're in the process of working that back with the EPA. Again, we have gotten electricity back to them. So those kind of things that you think of every day, it's definitely water, electricity and gas that have affected people's lives here.

But we are just -- I mean, I think most Daytonians are super grateful, because when you have things like this happen, you realize what's most important to you. And, typically, those are the people that you love and care about, and that they're safe.

CAVUTO: Power outages, we have heard, have been rampant throughout the area. I don't know if they persist. Can you update us on that, Mayor?

WHALEY: Yes, we have had like nearly 40,000 people out of power.

Dayton Power and Light is working feverishly. And other folks have come from as far away as Indianapolis to come and work on the lines, but downed power lines throughout our community and then communities around us where this tornado just cut huge transmitters in half, huge lines just split in half.

The destruction of this tornado was intense. It would pay -- it took gas stations completely gone, large hotels, just ripped the side of the buildings, large manufacturing facility destroyed.

It was a very, very powerful tornado that went through an urban area.

CAVUTO: Well, Mayor, we wish you and your folks well. I'm sure they're going to get through this, but holy Toledo.

Thank you, Mayor, for taking the time.

WHALEY: Holy Toledo.

CAVUTO: Indeed.

WHALEY: Thank you, Neil.

CAVUTO: Thank you very, very much.

All right, let's get a read on all this and why it keeps happening with WeatherBELL chief meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

Joe, I was reading one report that said, in the last 30-some-odd days, we have had more than 500 tornadoes. Now, obviously, they can be of all sizes. The more severe ones get the attention. But what is going on?

JOE BASTARDI, WEATHERBELL CHIEF FORECASTER: Well, we have had a persistent pattern of unseasonably cold air in the Western and Northern United States and the heat in the Southeast.

And it's a classic setup, and you could see it coming a couple of weeks, two, three weeks ago, this pattern setting up. May is the tornado month. It's sort of like September and the hurricane season is the highlight of the hurricane season.

And the reason that happens is, the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere are still cold enough, so that you get these clashes going on. Generally, when Mays are very warm, like last year -- let's remember last year. I believe there were less than 100 tornadoes the entire month of May.

Last year was one of the lowest tornado totals on record. This is much more like 2008 and 2011. And it was the same story, a lot of cold air around, relative to averages, enough warm air around to fight. And that's what you have got going on.

This is going to last another three days, Neil, and then we're going to turn it around. You folks out in the West and the Northern Plains,you have been so very, very cold. There has been no spring to speak of. That's going all turn around. You're going to have some summer develop in there.

The cool air is going to push off to the east and southeast. And you will probably find that June is near to below normal tornado activity and certainly a lot less active than May.

CAVUTO: You know, the Southeast, meanwhile, is dealing with record high temperatures this early in the year, I believe throughout much of the southeast, Atlanta and points around, 95 to 100 degrees.

Have you ever seen the extremes like this?

BASTARDI: Well, I have seen worse.

April 18, 1976, where I am in State College, Pennsylvania, the normal high is 62. It hit 94. It was between 95 and 100 in Southeast Pennsylvania Easter Sunday, 1976. You look at the great May 77 heat wave or July '66 heat way.

You see these things go on. And what happens is, the atmosphere -- and no one wants to talk about how brutally cold it's been in the West. The strength of the cold in the West has been stronger than the strength of the warmth in the Southeastern part of the United States.

But you got to remember, when you have these real high normal temperatures, like the normal high in Columbia is 86 right now, Columbia, South Carolina. It's tougher to get it spread -- spread far enough away.

CAVUTO: All right.

BASTARDI: When it's -- when the normal highs, like you see out in the West, they're in the 70s, you get a day in the 40s, it's 30 degrees below normal.

But the big thing to remember is, if there was no cold air around, you wouldn't be seeing this happen. And all this is, is nature trying to even out for balance here.

CAVUTO: All right.

BASTARDI: Neil, if there was a route going on where it's just all warming, warming, warming, you wouldn't be seeing this.

And, as a matter of fact, as a matter of fact, Neil, that's why this perma- drought that we were supposed to be in -- remember, back in 2012? Look what's happened to that. The Plains have been above normal precipitation since.

CAVUTO: Joseph, thank you, keeping on top of a lot of things at once. We appreciate it.

I do want to direct your attention to the corner of Wall and Broad today, stocks falling because, well, bond prices are rising. Interest rates are tumbling. A yield on a 10-year Treasury note, which a lot of mortgages, refinancing, equity loans and the like are pegged to, down to 2.27 percent, the lowest in almost two years.

And that has a lot of firms, Morgan Stanley among them, saying, it keeps up like this, we could be on a recession watch. They're often wrong. And then these turns and twists are standard fare, watching the markets.

But those low interest rates, a lot of people like to believe were going to provide a floor for this market.

Also want to update you on the Avenatti -- the Michael Avenatti arraignment. He was just coming out of the courthouse a little while ago. This was on separate charges to extort $20 million from Nike. But among the quick and interesting comments he made is that he is blaming this against -- life against the ultimate Goliath, the Trump administration.

So it seems that, in large part, he is blaming this on Donald Trump -- more after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MICHAEL AVENATTI, FORMER ATTORNEY FOR STORMY DANIELS: For over 20 years, I have represented Davids vs. Goliaths across this nation in many courthouses just like this.

I am now facing the fight of my life against the ultimate Goliath, the Trump administration. I intend on fighting these charges.

And I look forward to a jury verdict in each of these cases. I am confident that, when a jury of my peers passes judgment on my conduct, that justice will be done, and I will be fully exonerated.

Thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAVUTO: Did he just blame Donald Trump for all of his legal problems?

Michael Avenatti charged today in a Manhattan courtroom in two separate cases ranging from wire fraud to outright extortion. It gets a lot more involved.

Jacqui Heinrich outside the U.S. district court in New York, where this latest incident just went down -- Jacqui?

JACQUI HEINRICH, CORRESPONDENT: Well, Neil, Avenatti just wrapped up back-to-back arraignments in court. He was calm, but, as you saw, he was indignant in front of those cameras.

He told the judge on each of the counts, he wasn't just not guilty, but 100 percent not guilty. He just pleaded not guilty on the charges that he tried to shake down Nike for up to $25 million, threatening to release damaging information ahead of Nike's quarterly earnings call and the start of the NCAA men's college basketball tournament.

Prosecutors say he told the company's lawyers he wasn't messing around and if they didn't pay up, he would take $10 billion off Nike's market cap.

Then, earlier today, in his first appearance, he pleaded not guilty in a kind of robbing Peter to Pay Paul scheme involving adult actress Stormy Daniels, where prosecutors say he took the money that was supposed to go to Daniels for her book deal, spent it, and then hounded the publisher for the next payment to reimburse what he had taken.

Avenatti is accused of taking about $300,000 of Daniels' money by having the payment sent into his account, even faking her signature and then spending it on lavish things like Ferrari payments, hotels, restaurants, even payroll checks to employees at his coffee company and law firm. In all, he's accused of taking about $300,000.

Avenatti has maintained that he is innocent and even said he wants the investigators investigated, in this tweet saying: "I have trust in the system that I have devoted nearly 20 years of my professional life to. I'm confident that I will be fully exonerated by a jury once all relevant evidence and documents are presented. And I look forward to a full inquiry into the motivations behind the charges."

These cases from today in New York carry a maximum possible sentence of 69 years in prison. But don't forget he's also facing some other charges in California that carry additional time, alleged crimes such as stealing from other clients and tax fraud.

So, in total, he's facing 404 possible years in prison. And, of course, as you just saw, he is pleading not guilty to all of it -- Neil.

CAVUTO: Jacqui, thank you very, very much.

All right. So what is next for this celebrity lawyer?

Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General Tom Dupree.

Tom, I cannot imagine that prosecutors wouldn't have dotted and cross their T's in going after him on the Stormy Daniels payment that they allege he just pocketed, to even the extortion charges against Nike.

But, to your point, I know innocent until proven guilty, but they wouldn't willy-nilly make a case without having a lot of stuff to make that case. What do you think?

TOM DUPREE, FORMER JUSTICE DEPARTMENT OFFICIAL: Yes.

And, look, Neil, I agree with you. Obviously, everyone in America is innocent until proven guilty. But at the same time, I think that you take the Stormy Daniels case. That's something where it looks as though the prosecutors have fairly ably documented the payments that were coming in, the payments that were going out, the payments Avenatti said he hadn't received, what he was using the money for.

And so it seems as though they have done their homework and put together a fairly compelling case that Avenatti was ripping off Stormy Daniels. Of course, Avenatti hasn't yet had his day in court. He may well have a defense.

I think we got a preview of where he's going with his defense today when he blamed the president and other political actors for his troubles. But at some point, there will be a day of reckoning for Michael Avenatti.

CAVUTO: You know, on the Stormy Daniels' payments -- because that would be an easy thing to prove and state your case, right? I mean, if there's a forged signature, or you're taking that money before distributing to Stormy Daniels, if it was ever was, what do they look for there?

I mean, that's pretty easy to follow, right?

DUPREE: I tend to think so, Neil.

I mean, it looks like it's fairly open and shut. I mean, certainly, when you have a situation where a lawyer is getting a payment intended for a client, it really should go without saying that the lawyer doesn't or cannot spend that money on, say, a Ferrari payment, for example.

So I think it's fairly self-evident that if he did, in fact, do what is alleged in that Stormy Daniels complaint, he could be facing serious time behind bars.

CAVUTO: So why would he risk it? The flip side is that -- and where he's claiming his innocence, why would he risk something, knowing that the notoriety he has established in going after Donald Trump on payments of Stormy Daniels, for example, why risk doing the same thing in reverse?

DUPREE: It's a great question.

And I suspect it just gets to the fundamental character of Michael Avenatti. I mean, he's an aggressive guy. We saw when he entered the political fray at various points in the last year or so he had no hesitation about attacking his opponents very aggressively, making claims that often could not be substantiated, and really skirting close to the line.

You may remember how he made a fairly dramatic appearance in the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, of all things, which I think even many liberals said was just a bridge too far.

CAVUTO: All right.

DUPREE: So I think he may be a smart guy, but, at times, he's shown a lack of judgment.

CAVUTO: To put it mildly.

Tom Dupree, thank you very much, my friend.

DUPREE: Thank you.

CAVUTO: All right, by now, you know the fuss back and forth. North Korea fires off some missiles. The president says, well, they're really not the kind of missiles that violate anything.

Presidential candidate and Hawaii Democratic Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard disagrees. She's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT: My people think it could have been a violation, as you know. I view it differently. I view it as a man, perhaps he wants to get attention, and perhaps not. Who knows? It doesn't matter.

All I know is that there have been no nuclear tests. There have been no ballistic missiles going out. There have been no long-range missiles going out. And I think that, someday, we will have a deal. I'm not in a rush.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CAVUTO: All right, so the president dismissing this latest missile launch by the North Koreans.

But even those around him, and certainly in Japan, when he was there meeting with the Japanese leader, the three-day guest of the Japanese, are concerned. They're in the neighborhood of those missiles. And they don't like what they're seeing.

2020 presidential candidate Democratic Congresswoman from Hawaii Tulsi Gabbard with us right now.

Congresswoman, good to have you.

REP. TULSI GABBARD, D-HI, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Aloha, Neil.

CAVUTO: Are you worried about the president not being worried about this?

GABBARD: I am, because the situation with North Korea remains very serious.

Every single day that goes by is a day that North Korea can continue to try to strengthen their nuclear capabilities. So I think President Trump is making a big mistake here in thinking that his own personal charm or his relationship or friendship with Kim Jong-un is going to be enough to make a deal that will achieve our objective of ultimately denuclearizing the Korean Peninsula.

This is a mistake, because, if you put yourself in Kim's position, you see how the United States has broken previous agreements that were made. You look at what happened to Gadhafi in Libya, where Gadhafi was promised, hey, if you get rid of your nuclear weapons program, we're not going to come after you.

Well, the United States went after him, toppled Gadhafi. Kim looks at the Iran nuclear deal that was made to stop Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. President Trump came in and made a decision to tear that agreement up.

So, if you're in Kim's position, you're wondering, why should I step into making an agreement to get rid of nuclear weapons, when I don't know if this president or a future president is going to decide to go back on that agreement, wage a regime change war, or do something else.

So this is the problem with President Trump's kind of shoot-from-the-hip, unpredictable foreign policy. It's shortsighted. It undermines our national security, and it makes the American people less safe.

CAVUTO: So you want to go, when you talk about Iran, back to that deal?

GABBARD: I would.

As president and commander in chief, I would bring the United States back into this multilateral Iran nuclear deal that all the different intelligence agencies...

CAVUTO: Were you for that deal when President Obama signed onto it?

GABBARD: Look, like a lot of people -- like a lot of people, I had concerns about the flaws that were in the deal.

I wanted a stronger deal and pushed hard for it in Congress. Ultimately, when the final deal was presented, I knew that it was a decision between this deal that we could work to strengthen in the future that would prevent Iran from gaining a nuclear weapon or war.

And I chose the route of peace and diplomacy. Let's make this deal and work to strengthen it and continue to try to address the issues with it separately.

CAVUTO: All right, well, as you know, the president...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: ... that no deal was better than this deal. We can go back and forth on that.

But you have been critical of a lot of people in both parties, how they handle the disturbances around the world.

You had said, in talking about this, that, when it comes to tensions with Russia and China and elsewhere, we're getting closer to the risk of a nuclear catastrophe. You had called out chicken hawks, as you put them, in both parties...

GABBARD: Yes.

CAVUTO: ... the corporate media and the military industrial complex, who drove us to war for their own power and profit.

Now, you have served in the military. You're one of the few presidential candidates who has. What is your fear here?

GABBARD: Look, the concern is that nuclear strategists are saying exactly the statement that I just delivered, that we are at a greater risk of nuclear war now than ever before.

And this is a risk that we have got to take seriously. This is a threat we have got to take seriously. This is something that our -- our families and constituents and people in Hawaii had a huge wakeup call to over a year ago, when we got that message that went across over a million people's cell phones, saying, seek shelter immediately, missile incoming, this is not a drill.

So, people were running. They were terrified, looking, where can we find shelter? And the insanity is, there is no shelter. So, yes, you have people from both political parties, people here in Washington, who are ratcheting up tensions between the United States and nuclear-armed countries, like Russia and China, pushing us closer and closer to a nuclear war as the inevitable outcome, if we continue down this path.

Yet they're not providing shelter for people, if that -- if that outcome occurs. And that's why I'm speaking out so strongly, speaking to voters across this country.

As president and commander in chief, I will work to end this new cold war and nuclear arms race, de-escalate these tensions, and walk us back away from this brink of nuclear catastrophe that will devastate, not only our entire country. It'll devastate the world.

This is what's at risk here.

CAVUTO: Well, let me ask you a little -- Ron Paul likes the kind of talk you have, where he says you're very tough on foreign policy. He doesn't think you would get embedded or to involved in the Middle East. He doesn't agree with you on economics, but said you're his -- the best candidate in there right now.

But he doesn't like some of your economic views, that you might be a spender or that you might be -- I'm paraphrasing here -- a typical Democrat.

And that unnerves some who think that you will just parrot whatever the line is of the party right now.

You say?

GABBARD: Well, look, you can look at my history. We have just talked about how I don't parrot anyone else's line.

My focus, my mission is on serving the American people. And, as president and commander in chief, I will bring a different kind of leadership than what we have seen in the past.

Yes, on foreign policy, this has been a great focus of mine, because it's important to recognize we cannot separate foreign policy from domestic policy, because we have seen how, since 9/11 alone, we have spent trillions of dollars on these wasteful regime change wars.

CAVUTO: So, would that stop under a President Gabbard? Would that stop under you?

GABBARD: That would end under a President Gabbard.

I would end these wasteful regime change wars, work to end this new cold war and arms race.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: If you're president, would you do away with the president's tax cuts?

GABBARD: I think we need to overhaul our whole tax system.

I think the president's tax cuts overwhelmingly benefited the rich and powerful, leaving behind the vast majority of hardworking Americans in this country.

CAVUTO: Though almost everybody got the tax cut, right? And now we're dealing with record low employment in all groups.

GABBARD: A lot of people benefited.

CAVUTO: Right.

GABBARD: But if you look at the tax cuts, who benefited the most?

It is the top, top, top of the 1 percent, the rich and powerful, who continue to have influence over our policy being made.

CAVUTO: But would you say the economy is booming right now, is it stronger right now as a result of those tax cuts?

GABBARD: I think you can see how GDP has gone up, unemployment has gone down.

But those numbers don't tell the whole story. We have to look at the quality of life of the American people, many of whom are continuing to struggle just to make ends meet and get by.

CAVUTO: Real quickly, then, on the impeachment thing, you're not for that. You're opposed to going in that direction, because it would be divisive. Do you still stand by that?

GABBARD: I do. I do.

I think it's important for the American people to make the decision in 2020 to defeat Donald Trump because his policies have not been good for our country.

This is why I'm running and I'm offering to serve them as their president, to bring about that change that puts the well-being of the American people first and foremost.

CAVUTO: All right, you will get that opportunity to debate those points next month.

Congresswoman, very good having you. Thank you very, very much.

GABBARD: Aloha, Neil. Thanks.

CAVUTO: All right.

Can companies be blamed for a drug addiction? The first trial in what they're going to the opioid crisis, a test trial, if you will, could decide that.

We will tell you why -- after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: You just heard from Tulsi Gabbard, who wants that guy's job.

What if I told you The New York Times has various models that say it's going to be almost impossible for her and every other Democrat, that he could be a cinch for reelection?

We will explain after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, you don't see this every day.

The New York Times looking at various models and an opinion column predicting he's going to be reelected based on models, all sorts of models that have been peppered by the likes of Morgan Stanley and J.P. Morgan Chase and others that base it on the strong economy, that that will be the wind at the president's back and get him reelected.

FOX News political analyst Gianno Caldwell. We have got RealClearPolitics' A.B. Stoddard, Democratic strategist Robin Biro.

So, let's get your read on this, Gianno, that it's the economy that is the president's friend, it will continue to be the president's friend, and that will get him another four years in the White House.

GIANNO CALDWELL, POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes.

And Mark Zandi, Moody's chief economist on the analytic side, said that he's reviewed 12 polls that also say that the president will win reelection at a comfortable margin.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Now, keep in mind, with Mark Zandi, he thought Hillary Clinton was going to win election. I'm not saying -- we all make mistakes, but I'm just saying -- go ahead.

CALDWELL: Well, the polls which he's reviewed now say that he believes that President Trump is going to win.

CAVUTO: I got it. I know what you're saying.

CALDWELL: Yes.

But the truth of the matter is, and I tell my fellow Republicans this, polls don't vote, people do. Anything can happen from now until Election Day. So we got to keep that in mind.

This is what I really believe is going to take President Trump to the top. And this is why I believe that he's going to win election. The Democrats have been completely and totally inept when it comes to policy measures that they believe that the American people want, desire and need.

If you just look at the congresswoman you just had on air, on our air, she said, yes, the GDP is up, unemployment is down, great, but that's not something that benefits all Americans.

I don't understand where they get this stuff from. And this is where it's going to be problematic from the Democrats. They cannot get a controlled message that's going to be beneficial for all Americans, because the economy is thriving for all people.

CAVUTO: Robin Biro, as a Democratic strategist, you got to wonder.

And I look at this just with data coming in. I'm surprised the president's not up 10 points in the polls. You could make a very good argument, since we blame presidents when the economy or the markets are doing horribly, we might as well credit them when they do well.

They have done very, very well among all key demographics, many of them, of course, key Democratic demographics. Unemployment is at record lows. Job surges are now picking up. Employment, which used to be stuck with average wage increases around 2.82 to 2.9 percent, handily about 3.2 percent. How long that lasts is anyone's guess. But the trend is his friend.

And so I wonder, when Democrats bash it, they just look clueless on just that aspect. What do you think?

ROBIN BIRO, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, Neil. I couldn't agree more.

And, look, the president has always been his own worst enemy. One of these polls actually said as much. They cited the fact that, by their modeling, he should have won the popular vote. And the only reason that he didn't was because of his strong unfavorable with voters.

But, look, like you, I'm kind of stunned that, with things going as well as they are now, that he's not up by 10 points. But my party has got to bring -- as Gianno just correctly pointed out, we have got to bring strong policy messages here about what we actually bring to the table as an alternative.

We have got to hit on the economy. We have got to actually address immigration reform, some of these issues that Democrats are really afraid to address. We have to go there to show that we have a viable alternative -- alternative, Neil.

CAVUTO: You know, A.B., you could make the argument that the president didn't stress the economy as much when he ran in 2016, as some of these wedge issues that worked for him.

He talked about manufacturing workers which were hard-hit. He talked a lot about the wall, about immigration. But he found other ways to work, at least at the time, what was an improving, albeit a slowly improving, economy, and didn't make that the focus of his -- of his campaign.

I'm wondering, what Democrat do you see out there that's finding a way to do that in this economy?

A.B. STODDARD, REALCLEARPOLITICS: Right. Well, I haven't, Neil.

And I wrote a piece about this a few weeks ago, saying the Democrats had no answer for a strong Trump economy, and they had no way to leverage his extreme vulnerability on trade, because they're protectionists, just like Donald Trump.

So they have lost the ability to talk to the farmers who are flooded, who are suffering long-term damage, perhaps fatal to their professional viability, because of the Trump trade war.

So they are sort of mute on this issue, Biden being the most pro-trade of all of them, but afraid to catch heat from his left flank. He stays silent on that. When pressed recently, he's defended his vote for NAFTA. But he's not talking about the damage that President Trump's trade war is doing.

So I do think -- there was a piece in New York Times recently that Youngstown, Ohio, is not doing any better, but they're still with Trump. So there's a case where the economy won't -- won't really help him, but these voters are with him anyway.

You will see a lot of anecdotes about the midterm elections in 2018, where -- and polls like Quinnipiac out of Pennsylvania two weeks ago, where 54 percent of the state says the economy is terrific, 54 percent of the state says they're not voting for Trump again.

So you can see these examples where it's not going to help.

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: Right.

STODDARD: But I do think that the question for Trump is, how many of the people he really promised to help and are -- and he is really hurting?

Those farmers, they know a lot about trade, OK? And they don't need to be talked down to by President Trump saying that the Chinese are paying the tariffs. They know exactly who's paying the tariffs. They know that the Chinese used to buy half of our soybeans, and now the Brazilians are buying -- or the Chinese are buying Brazilian soybeans.

CAVUTO: And would there be enough of them, if they're aghast, as you say, to tip it, to tip it?

(CROSSTALK)

STODDARD: They know that that is not going to switch back, no matter what the president does.

CAVUTO: OK.

STODDARD: I think that the voter staying home is really the problem, Neil, for Donald Trump next year, his voters.

CAVUTO: If that happens, if that happens.

Gianno, one of the things that happens too is, in these big states that the president won and made Republican wins, Pennsylvania, for example, that just reported its lowest unemployment, I think, like ever, he's trailing by more than double digits.

And I'm wondering, how is that happening? And should the president, to A.B.'s point, worry about stuff like that?

CALDWELL: Yes, and that's interesting to me as well, especially considering the fact that, in January, we saw that manufacturing went increased by 700 percent -- over 700 percent, in comparison to President Obama's numbers.

So, yes, when thinking about that, I do find that to be fairly interesting. A lot of people can point to President Trump's behavior. If you look at my home state of Illinois, in the last midterms, the reason why a lot of Republicans lost seats, either there or Orange County, was because of suburban moms who viewed his behavior on Twitter or his language as deplorable.

CAVUTO: Right.

CALDWELL: So, when considering that, that's his worst enemy, because, from a policy perspective, there's a lot of Americans that are benefiting from his policy.

We can talk about any number of things, and we have mentioned that on this segment.

CAVUTO: We shall see. We shall see.

CALDWELL: But, certainly, this is what his worst enemy is right now, and that is his behavior.

CAVUTO: All right, guys, I wish we had more time. Unfortunately, we do not.

Thank you all very, very much.

Meanwhile, something we're following very, very closely, in the opioid crisis, blaming the drug manufacturer for it, a key battle against Johnson & Johnson that could set the tone, tenor and the financial battle of the lifetime of this industry and this country.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: Oklahoma's Attorney General Mike Hunter slamming pharmaceutical company Johnson & Johnson in court today, saying that it's greed has fueled the state's opioid crisis in the first lawsuit of its kind to go to trial. Does the state have a case going after drugmakers for people who take abusive said drugs, opioids, if you will, down the road?

FOX News judicial analyst, host of "Liberty File" on Fox Nation, Judge Andrew Napolitano.

What do you think, Judge?

ANDREW NAPOLITANO, JUDICIAL ANALYST: I don't think the state has very much of a case. I think this is sort of a high-level shakedown for cash.

Now, why would I say that about a public official in the state? If you look at the settlement, the $275 million in cash that Purdue pharmaceutical, the manufacturer, the principal manufacturer of these opioids, paid to the state in order to avoid a trial, in order to avoid the wrath of a jury -- by the way, this J&J case is non-jury.

Where did that $275 million go?

CAVUTO: Oh, I didn't know this was a non-jury case.

NAPOLITANO: Yes, this is non-jury.

CAVUTO: That's interesting.

NAPOLITANO: Before a judge who is running for reelection, but that's not a jury.

Where did the $275 million from Purdue go? To build three buildings on the University of Oklahoma campus? What?

CAVUTO: Wow.

NAPOLITANO: How does that help the people who -- in Oklahoma who allegedly suffered because of what the manufacturer did, not because of what they chose to do or what their doctor prescribed for them?

Now, they will say, well, we're going to study addiction in these buildings, so that might help future generations, but it's certainly not going to compensate the plaintiffs who were harmed.

CAVUTO: But we should think of painkillers were mentioned and Percocet, some of these others that these companies make, for a lot of folks, they're lifesavers, painkillers recommended after surgery to deal with very painful conditions.

NAPOLITANO: Right.

CAVUTO: They make the stuff. They don't prescribe the stuff.

So you go back and forth. Well, maybe it's the people who are prescribing that prescribe too much. Then we go to the people who took too much. So you can go and hit a wide swathe.

NAPOLITANO: Their defense is a very interesting, interesting one.

It's going to be, we can't sell anything, we can't promote anything, we can't even tell doctors how to use our products without FDA approval. And because of the FDA approval, we shouldn't even be in your court.

Now, the court has rejected that argument. I believe that's an argument if...

CAVUTO: Rejected, the fact...

(CROSSTALK)

NAPOLITANO: The FDA defense, right.

They basically said you can make that FDA defense to the fact-finder, the same judge that's rejecting it at that point. So I don't know where that's going to go.

But I will tell you an interesting story. When he was the chief justice of the United States, Bill Rehnquist was stopped for DWI in Virginia on the way home from the Supreme Court. He wasn't drunk. He had had a back problem. And he overtook the opioid medication.

And it gave every indication of being drunk, but there was no alcohol involved. So, they may very well argue, you made this so addictive, that patients can't resist waiting the four- or six- or 12-hour time period that the bottle says on it, that they just naturally want to take these things like they're candy.

That's probably what they're going to say. Response? We didn't make it any more addictive than the Food and Drug Administration permitted us to.

CAVUTO: In other words, they didn't soup it up to make it any more powerful than it was.

(CROSSTALK)

NAPOLITANO: Well, if they had, that wouldn't only be a civil offense. That would be criminal, if they put something in...

(CROSSTALK)

CAVUTO: What I have noticed is doctors typically in the past, if you needed a painkiller or something, they would give you 10 or 12 pills for the interim.

They have upped that amount. Now, I'm not blaming the doctors, but we live in a day and age where more is given.

NAPOLITANO: This is going to change the law in Oklahoma, if the state prevails, because, for years, I mean, 100 years, the law was, where there's a learned intermediary, a physician, without whose intervention you cannot get this, the manufacturer is absolved from liability.

The physician has chosen to give this to you, to put it in your hands. This removes that learned intermediary defense and makes manufacturers liable for what the ultimate consumer personally chooses to do to his own body.

CAVUTO: With their own hands.

NAPOLITANO: With their own hands.

CAVUTO: Taking and putting into their own mouths.

NAPOLITANO: Usually.

CAVUTO: Sad life. All right, sad reality.

And it is out of control, to the judge's point. Whatever you think it is and who to blame, 130 people a day die from it. It is a massive problem. But fingering one company or one industry isn't going to solve that problem.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: Oklahoma is bracing for still more severe weather, as it's still reeling from the tornadoes and floods that won't stop.

Jeff Paul is in Tulsa right now with more.

Hey, Jeff.

JEFF PAUL, CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Neil, some of the folks who live in this neighborhood and have lived here for a long time say they have never seen anything like this, water right up to the front yard of their homes.

And it's certainly giving them a moment of pause to think about what their next move is, maybe pack up some things, get ready for evacuation. This road right here, it doesn't look like a road. It looks like a river.

And it is in fact Riverside Drive, normally would have cars on it, traffic, people riding their bikes. It is now full of water from the overspilling Arkansas River.

Over in West Tulsa, that's where we're seeing a lot of the evacuations. But the main concern at the moment are the levees. They're 70 years old, and officials say they are holding strong at the moment. But there are some spots where there are some seepage from all that floodwater.

And officials are hoping people listen to the warning, that, if they're told to evacuate, that they go ahead and do so.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We continue to encourage every everyone, please prepare for the worst-case scenario that we have had in our history of the city.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAUL: Now, all 77 counties here in Oklahoma are under a state of emergency.

Everyone's worried right now about the forecast. We are expecting more rain tonight through tomorrow afternoon. This area can't handle much more water -- Neil.

CAVUTO: All right, Jeff, thank you very, very much.

We will have more right after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAVUTO: All right, by now, you know the drill. The worse things look for trade deal with China, the worse things look for stocks.

That was exactly the point today, with China zinging back at the United States, saying it is not about to have the U.S. dictate its laws in that country, and changing them for the sake of a trade deal, also saying right now that it is looking at dealing with some rare earth materials that are popularly used in a lot of technology companies as maybe a new salvo, a new area in which they could try to go after the United States, all of this, of course, as stocks were selling off.

People were buying bonds for their security. The rate today, at 2.27 percent for a 10-year note, pegged to many mortgages, is the lowest it's been in nearly two years.

The fallout from that at noon tomorrow on "Coast to Coast" on FBN.

Right now, here comes "The Five."

Content and Programming Copyright 2019 Fox News Network, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2019 ASC Services II Media, LLC. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of ASC Services II Media, LLC. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.