Each year at this time, the NCAA's Big Dance inspires many basketball followers to identify which college players might be trying on glass Nikes during the NBA Draft in late June.
Well, that's what we're presuming. Doesn't it make sense that these nationally televised auditions -- now in the Sweet 16 phase -- often turn the tide for prospects previously dribbling and drop-stepping a bit under the radar?
"You might think that," said one college scout currently employed by an NBA Western Conference team, "and you'd be wrong in most cases. The people typically making the assumption that the hot player during March Madness is just starting to captivate pro teams out of nowhere are media types and fans.
"We can go back to guys like Juan Dixon, Mateen Cleaves, Tyus Edney and John Wallace who just killed it during the NCAA Tournament," he said. "How much did they do in the NBA? How many of them ended up in the lottery?"
So, our recruited NBA expert has just informed us that comprehensive analysis by guys like him means there are few prospect surprises this time of year.
"Pretty much," he said.
For some of the players from so-called mid-majors, the tournament can give NBA teams a better idea of how they can handle bigger and better athletes from the so-called power conferences. For example, when St. Mary's goes up against a big and athletic front line from Baylor, we'll know more about how Omar Samhan might do in the league. Then again, it might be tough for Samhan to show what he can do one-on-one on the block because Baylor likes to zone and probably will have someone standing in front and behind him ... unless the Bears are unable to do that and close out on the Gaels' legion of shooters.
"That sounds about right," the scout said. "I've been watching Samhan develop over the last couple of years and the things he does -- in terms of footwork in both directions, keeping the ball high, creating space with his upper arms with both hands on the ball when turning to the hoop -- are impressive. But while he's been the most productive big in the tournament so far, the NBA is a run-and-jump league in many ways. That doesn't mean he won't make it, because we have vertically challenged and speed-challenged guys who've made it; it just means that when you're drafted is more about how you project than how good you might be right now."
And even though I concede the run-jump portion of the scout's explanation of the NBA Draft landscape, the uncertainty of talent projection based more on physical attributes than basketball skill is why so many team presidents and general managers select first-round busters every year.
"Believe me, the final choice on draft night often is not close to what some scouts have recommended," the scout said. "Good big guys usually win in our league, so a lot of personnel guys really reach when a decent, or at least athletic, big guy comes along. And bigs often take much longer to develop -- look how long it's taken Andrew Bogut to really start to dominate -- while the guys who draft or coach them in their early years get fired."
With that cheery truth on the table, let's take a look at some of the players still working in the Sweet 16 who have summoned the interest of the scout and his professional cronies. With a nod to our scout's opinion on the difference between college and pro basketball, the aforementioned auditions can be compared to TV actors reading for roles on Broadway.
We'll open with a list of little-known (in terms of premature draft lists) players we'll refer to as The Risers even though our scout is almost insulted by the premise. Then we'll take a look at hotshots such as John Wall and Evan Turner and bring it home with the middle-of-the-roaders.
THE RISERS
Omar Samhan, Sr., Center, 6-11, St. Mary's: "I've been hearing people say that if he really works on his body between now and the draft like (former UCLA star) Kevin Love did, he can be that type of player," the scout said. "He does have kind of that Gumby body like Love had, but Love was far more skilled away from the basket, which is good for a kid who doesn't explode to the hoop. That said, Samhan is really polished on the block on offense. I think he can make it, but to be a starter, all of that hard work he's put in has to be coming even greater."
Ryan Wittman, Sr., Small Forward, 6-7, Cornell: "Hey, he makes threes at about 43 percent and he shoots it easy, which tells you the deeper shot won't be an issue," the scout said of Randy Wittman's kid. "He has good footwork curling off the down screen and a quick release. Probably doesn't have the lateral quickness to guard most guys he'll see in the NBA, but has the range to at least be invited to summer-league camps. Still a real longshot -- and I don't mean three-point shot -- to get drafted."
Jordan Crawford, Soph., Shooting Guard, 6-4, Xavier: "I have no idea if he's coming out after this year or not," the scout said. "He's had two really efficient games, for him, in the tournament and he's 21. But, frankly, I think he's kind of selfish with the ball. He's obviously Xavier's main scoring option, but seeing him use an opponents' defensive focus to create scoring opportunities for teammates is pretty infrequent. By the way, we all knew about Crawford before that video of him dunking against LeBron (James). For someone so focused on scoring, I'd like him more if his shot mechanics and body balance were more consistent. Kobe (Bryant) often sacrifices balance in an effort to get off shots, but his release is so consistent he sometimes gets away with it. If Crawford figures some things out, he has a chance. I hope playing well now doesn't make him rush to come out."
Quincy Pondexter, Sr., Swingman, 6-6, Washington: "He really seems to get it this year," the scout said of the Huskies' star. "I like how he competes, at both ends. He's quick, has some bounce and can create a shot against a wide variety of guys. He's a lot more efficient, which shows the value of staying in school. Kids ... stay in school. Seriously, though, he truly has to improve his shooting range, because in the NBA, those tricky moves to the rim end up getting snuffed. I also really like that freshman, Abdul Gaddy, who's a legit point guard who mostly is playing off the ball for Washington."
THE ELITE
John Wall, Fr., Point Guard, 6-3, Kentucky: "Point guards don't turn NBA teams immediately into champions," the scout said, "unless they're Magic Johnson and he was 6-9. Wall has the crazy wheels you want, he competes, he's not afraid to make plays when the game is on the line and those turnovers he's making figure to come down because NBA rules make it tougher to play team defense like college teams can. In an even more wide-open game than he's in now, it'll be hard to pass him up with the first pick."
Evan Turner, Jr., Basketball Player, 6-7, Ohio State: "Yeah, he's Mr. Versatility," the scout said. "Can do a lot of things, competes pretty hard and really thinks of the team first. He's not a premier athlete, but he's not bad. With the right team in the right system, he can be a top-notch pro."
DeMarcus Cousins, Fr., Center, 6-11, Kentucky: "He came to Kentucky with a nasty word called 'baggage' attached," the scout said, "but if the NBA was limited to guys without baggage, you might have to be playing point guard for the Denver Nuggets. Teams will take a close look at him in interviews, but what we're concerned with now is how hard he competes, which is pretty good, and his way-above-average combination of strength and lost-post foot work. Not a great athlete, in terms of jumping and running like Dwight Howard, but he can go pretty good up and down and his skill level, to me, is off the charts."
Wesley Johnson, Jr., Small Forward, 6-7, Syracuse: "A premier athlete, he shoots it with range and competes on the glass," the scout said. "Can he defend? He's just OK in that Syracuse zone, which is a surprise, because his length and bounce should make him a killer in that thing. He's decent at putting the ball on the deck for one or two bounces and up into his jumper, but he won't be a big-time pro until he gets better at that."
SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN
Kyle Singler, Jr., Small Forward, 6-9, Duke: "He's a classic frontcourt tweener," the scout said. "If he were a little longer, he'd go pretty high as a skilled stretch-four, I think. He has pretty good skill with the ball, but a lack of quickness makes it tough for him to create separation from a defender, so he takes a lot of contested shots. He's pretty tough, but will have a difficult time guarding guys at the three."
Devin Ebanks, Soph., Small Forward, 6-9, West Virginia: "Da'Sean Butler is West Virginia's best player," the scout said, "and could end up being its best pro prospect if Ebanks doesn't figure it out. He has enormous potential, has a lot of skill and athleticism, but he's been pretty disappointing."
Gordon Hayward, Soph., Small Forward, 6-8, Butler: "He's really skilled and plays hard," the scout said. "He was a guard in high school until a pretty big growth spurt and you can see those skills on display. He has pretty decent north-south speed for his size, but the lateral quickness, or lack of it, will make him a question on defense. But he's a lot better at putting the ball on the floor and going vertically past a defender than some people think. He can shoot it, but sometimes has to take shots with guys in his grill. At the next level, whenever that is, he'll be more of a guy who gets clean looks off of dribble penetration from a teammate."
Ekpe Udoh, Jr., Power Forward, 6-10, Baylor: "This kid has really improved," the scout said. "A pretty good, but not great athlete, he'll compete on defense and on the boards. His offensive repertoire has expanded to the point where he can be a quality pro."
