A couple of hours before the Paris atrocities, I was queuing to pass through a cumbersome security cordon in Tunis. Since the grisly attacks on the beach at Souss and at the Bardo museum, every hotel and tourist restaurant here has been fitted with airport-style scanners and metal detectors.
"This is a classic example of displacement activity," I airily told a fellow politician as we bleeped through. I went on to quote Nassim Taleb on how we falsely project the past into the future, failing to grasp that much of what is coming is unforeseeable.
Then I said something that, as I recall it now, feels more than a little eerie. "You can't stop someone who is picking soft targets and is prepared to lose his life. They won't attack a beach next time. They'll attack a concert or a supermarket or a nightclub."