Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Debt Ceiling Vote Tuesday

Tuesday's straight up-or-down vote on increasing the debt limit is basically a moot vote. No one actually thinks it will pass.

There are two reasons for that.

First of all, there are no "spending cuts" or framework attached to the bill.

Secondly, the House is treating this as a suspension bill. That means it has limited debate -- only 20 or so minutes -- and needs a two-thirds majority to pass.

In other words, if everyone votes, with 432 occupied seats -- three vacancies, including the recently decided NY-26th seat -- and Gabrielle Giffords not voting, the total is really 431.

That means the House needs 287 yes votes to pass this.

There is little chance of that happening.

Anticipate the House getting around to debating the debt ceiling no earlier than 4:45 pm ET. Debate will run longer 20 to 40 minutes. The actual vote will hit somewhere in a sequence of votes that is scheduled to start at 6:30 ET.

The House is conducting this vote Tuesday, well after Wall Street closes, to guard against the possibility that the market could spiral down in concert with the vote.

Remember the vote on September 29, 2008 when the House failed to approve the TARP/bailout bill? The market plunged in synchronicity with the vote. All told, the market lost 778 points, the largest single-day point loss in the history of the Dow. More than $1.2 trillion in market capitalization washed away.