Trump’s Strait showdown: Five bold moves to crush the Iran threat now

"It won’t be long now."  That was President Donald J. Trump, speaking on the timeline for commercial traffic to flow again through the Strait of Hormuz at the White House on Tuesday.  U.S. forces are "knocking the hell out of the coast," Trump said. "As soon as that war is over, which it will be soon, prices are going to drop like a rock," he added.  "You watch."

Control of the Strait of Hormuz is a top geopolitical prize, and one of the core objectives of Operation Epic Fury. On a good day, 130 ships transit the Strait every 24 hours, moving cargo and about 20 million barrels of oil products.  Currently, about 6 million barrels per day of oil from Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates have been rerouted to Red Sea pipelines. 

China takes 40% of the oil flowing through the Strait.  All told, 89% of the oil transiting the Strait goes to Asian markets.  In contrast, U.S. crude oil imports coming through the Strait of Hormuz are at a 40-year low, accounting for just 2% of U.S. petroleum liquids consumption, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. 

You can see the potential for leverage with China. 

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From March 1 to 9, only an estimated 10 tankers and 39 cargo vessels transited.  Two Indian tankers carrying LPG, made it through, along with several sanctioned, shadow-fleet vessels likely carrying Iranian oil.  The bulk carrier Iron Maiden, registered in the Marshall Islands, slipped through by describing itself as "all Chinese-crewed," according to a Maritime Executive report.  

But most of the big VLCC tankers are still on pause because Lloyd’s of London and other insurers jacked up oil cargo insurance rates. They fear a repeat of the 1980s tanker war, when Iran’s navy attacked 168 ships.  One was the oil and bulk ore carrier Norman Atlantic, which was set ablaze after attacks by Iranian gunboats on December 6, 1987.  The burning hulk was towed out of the shipping lane and sunk off Oman. 

With more than 100 Iranian ships destroyed so far in Operation Epic Fury, there is practically no way Iran can sustain naval attacks.  In fact, no ship has been targeted since March 12. 

However, the persistent tactical problem is that large ships following a predictable route are easier to target, even given Iran’s degraded status. The Strait is 104 miles long, and just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point. The shipping channel is even tighter. There is an inbound lane and an outbound lane, each two miles wide. As Trump put it on Monday afternoon, "literally a single terrorist can put something in the water, or shoot something, or shoot a missile, a small missile, and it’s really close range, because it is a tight area." 

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On Monday, Trump warned he would "strongly encourage other nations whose economies depend on the Strait far more than ours" to help out.  He’s steamed at the slow response and no wonder.  Last year, more than 20 nations participated in Operation Prosperity Guardian, a maritime task force countering Houthi attacks in the Red Sea from 2023 to 2025.  Japan and South Korea import 70% of their oil via the Strait. 

"We thought that Europe would help, because they do have some minesweepers," Trump said Tuesday.  "I think it’s very unfair to the United States," he complained. 

So, the world is waiting for U.S. Central Command to announce a plan. This won’t be like the convoys you see in World War II movies. Surveillance, rather than side-by-side vessel escort, will be the basis for assisting merchant traffic. 

Here are five technologies essential to control of the Strait.

Maritime Moving Target Indicator.  As seen in the Caribbean, the U.S. Navy has crystalline maritime surveillance.  Technologies blend visual, heat detection and subtle radar shifts to cover wide areas or drill down on specific targets.  Maritime moving target indicator (MMTI) on planes like the Navy’s P-8 and the MQ-4C, a high-altitude drone with a 130-foot wingspan, are normally used to keep tabs on China’s navy.   They know how to cut through the coastline clutter of radar return and atmospheric distortion and find any IRGC small boats still in the Strait. 

Airpower.  To get after drones and shoreline anti-ship cruise missiles, "the United States will be bombing the hell out of the shoreline, and continually shooting Iranian boats and ships out of the water," as Trump said Thursday.

Mine Counter Measures Ships.  Drifting, moored or placed on the sea bottom, mines are a high anxiety threat, but one well-known to the U.S. Navy. Iran has 3,000 to 6,000 mines of Russian, North Korean and Chinese origin, including China’s nasty EM-52 bottom mine with a 600-lb. warhead.  U.S. Navy Independence-class littoral combat ships like USS Tulsa, carry sensors and unmanned vessels that locate, identify and destroy mines. 

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Underwater Drones.  For hunting mines, its U.S. Navy underwater drones to the rescue.  They range from the 12-foot long MK 18 Mod 2 Kingfish, which looks like a torpedo, up to the new, massive Orca, a 54-foot autonomous submarine that lurks underwater to carry out "diverse missions."  Consider, too, that China has an estimated 50,000 to 100,000 naval mines, and the Navy has been training to defeat them in the Pacific.  You can bet the U.S. will know exactly what types of mines Iran tries to emplace, and will find and neutralize them.

The Marines.  Much more than a technology, the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit embarked on USS Tripoli, is in high-speed transit en route to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) area of responsibility in the Middle East. It will provide options for interdicting any ships unwise enough to cause mischief.  Tripoli also brings more F-35B fighters. Historical fact:Tripoli, was hit by an Iraqi contact mine years ago during Operation Desert Storm in 1991 but was back in action in less than 24 hours. 

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Global shipping does not turn on a dime.  Vessels are on precise schedules down to the minute for entering and departing harbors.  A rerouting decision takes time to correct.

Still, I have no doubt that in a matter of days, shipping traffic will ramp up, with the U.S. in control of the Strait of Hormuz.  And China will just have to watch.

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