America holds the advantage as Trump meets Xi in high-stakes summit
Military positioning in the Strait of Hormuz and low trade deficit give Trump new leverage
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing with a strong hand to play in talks with China’s President Xi Jinping. It’s all due to his military and trade moves over the past 16 months.
Of course, to read the press, you’d think doom awaits. "Xi is confident in his country’s power; Trump is weakened with U.S. mired in war," fretted The Washington Post on Monday, May 11. From New York, the Council on Foreign Relations asserted on Sunday that at the Trump-Xi summit, China will have the upper hand. The general take is that Trump is reeling from the Iran war, while Xi is some sort of mastermind, ready to hop into global leadership. "Xi wants to project China as a more reliable and responsible counterweight to U.S. volatility," as the Post put it.
You’ve got to be kidding me. The reality is that Trump has put America in a much stronger geopolitical position versus China. Last spring, China was yanking export licenses for critical minerals and jeopardizing factory production around the globe. Now, the U.S. Navy sits athwart China’s No. 1 oil route in the Strait of Hormuz. That’s a new poker hand.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Xi has spent the past year purging military officers, dealing with a slowing economy, and coping with China’s lag in the AI race by turning inward.
TRUMP HEADS TO CHINA WITH THE UPPER HAND — AND XI KNOWS IT
Trump is expected to press Xi on China's economic and strategic support for both Iran and Russia, including oil revenue, dual-use components and potential weapons transfers, according to senior administration officials. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
In contrast, Trump has cut trade deals around the world attracting trillions of dollars in foreign investment. He’s clobbered Iran’s military and ended the rule of Chinese chum Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela. The U.S. Pacific Fleet has intercepted illicit shadow tankers bound for China’s teapot refineries that sneak in oil from Iran and Russia. The sophisticated display of military power in Operation Epic Fury made eyeballs pop in China’s People’s Liberation Army.
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}China experts caution Trump is forfeiting prestige by meeting on Xi’s home turf. But for Trump, it’s irresistible. Accompanying Trump to Beijing is an American dream team of CEOs who dominate everything from low Earth orbit (that’s Elon Musk of Tesla and SpaceX) to top-grade aircraft engines (that’s Larry Culp of GE Aerospace.)
He wants to look Xi Jinping in the eye, and there is no substitute for sitting down at a negotiating table.
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{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Watch for four major moves in Beijing.
Trade
This is a business trip. Team Trump hates what China’s rise did to the USA. Here’s the good news. "Our trade deficit in goods with China fell to $202 billion in 2025—the lowest it has been since 2004. And China’s share of total U.S. imports fell to about 9 percent, the lowest it has been since China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2001," U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer testified Apr. 28.
LIZ PEEK: TRUMP'S MAJOR TRADE WINS COULD BE ROCKET FUEL TO US ECONOMY
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}What Trump wants now is a stable, balanced and civil relationship with China. His plan is managed trade: a new policy where the U.S. and China negotiate tariffs sector by sector and expand trade on non-sensitive goods.
Export deals
Agriculture is at the top of the list, including exports of soybeans, dairy, and corn. Farmers are hoping for a long-term deal with China – although China has failed to live up to similar promises in the past. Aviation watchers predict Boeing could sell China up to 500 airliners and CEO Kelly Ortberg will be on the trip. This is all part of Trump’s plan to narrow the trade deficit. Trump wants America positioned for maximum sales.
TAIWAN WATCHES TRUMP-XI MEETING FOR SIGNS CHINA WILL TEST US RESOLVE
{{#rendered}} {{/rendered}}Iran
Trump will come down hard on China for selling Iran sodium perchlorate and other chemicals for ballistic missile fuels. Beijing is already anxious. Secretary of State Marco Rubio just slapped sanctions on Chinese satellite imagery companies and on Qingdao Haiye Oil Terminal Co., which receives Iranian oil. Dwindling oil could hit plastics and chemicals industries and stunt Chinese economic growth.
China experts caution Trump is forfeiting prestige by meeting on Xi’s home turf. But for Trump, it’s irresistible.
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Artificial Intelligence
Trump and Xi may chit-chat about AI safety, but the U.S. should steer clear of so-called agreements. The U.S. must win the AI race. As of May 1, 2026, the U.S. government’s National Institute of Standards reports the best U.S. model, Open AI GPT 5.5, is approximately eight months ahead of China’s DeepSeek V4 Pro.
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Whatever you think about AI, you don’t want a world where Xi Jinping sets AI standards. America’s best chance here is the unfettered success of our tech titans and start-ups. They are winning this race with model innovation, and by deploying the whole AI tech stack across global markets ahead of China. Only our U.S. tech sector has the money to compete with China.
China remains a formidable military competitor. China is once again landfilling for new bases in the South China Sea. China has doubled its nuclear missile arsenal from about 250 to over 600 weapons and massive expansion continues unabated. However, Trump’s blend of trade deals and military deterrence is proof positive of America’s unrivaled global leadership.
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