Tropical disturbance to bring uptick in downpours to Florida, Bahamas early this week
A tropical disturbance will drift across Florida and the Bahamas with enhanced downpours and rough surf this week.
The feature, dubbed 92L, is a disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms located north of Hispaniola. A continued track to the northwest is expected over the next few days.
The chance of 92L becoming the next tropical depression or storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season remains low during the first part of this week.
“Ninety-two L is expected to remain in a strongly sheared environment for the next several days,” AccuWeather Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said. “Thus, the potential for further development looks low at this time.”
Wind shear, or the change in wind speed and direction with altitude, can prevent disorganized features from developing and shred apart mature tropical systems, as was the case with Harvey.
Locally drenching showers and gusty thunderstorms will spread northwestward across the Bahamas into Monday night.
Hispaniola and Cuba are also likely to experience and uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity as 92L sweeps by to the north.
Thunderstorms associated with 92L will first reach southeastern Florida later Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Enhanced surf and rip currents will progress northwestward with the storm. Boaters and beachgoers should exercise caution and heed all advisories.
Rainfall associated with 92L could be heavy enough to trigger flash and urban flooding.
A push of dry and cooler air scheduled to move across the Southeast late in the week could interact with 92L and further enhance torrential rainfall across the Sunshine State.
Motorists and airline travelers around Florida and the Bahamas should expect an increase in delays.
"It is possible that 92L lingers near Florida and is then steered back out over the Atlantic late in the week or this weekend," according to AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alex Sosnowski. "At that point, some development could occur."
Should 92L beat the odds and strengthen into a tropical depression or storm, downpours, gusty winds and rough surf would be enhanced even more.
Another area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands will likely be steered to the north, well away from any land mass.
“If this circulation can manage to hang together during the next few days, it might have some opportunity to become more organized during this week and become a tropical depression,” Kottlowski said.
The next few weeks are historically the most active in the Atlantic Basin with the peak of hurricane season not until Sept. 10.