'Your World' on inflation, flight delays

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Travel expert warns vaccine mandates are causing massive disruptions

Mark Murphy discusses the ‘cascading effects’ of vaccine mandates throughout the travel industry ahead of the busy holiday season.

This is a rush transcript of "Your World" on November 1, 2021. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOE MANCHIN (D-WV): For the sake of the country, I urge the House to vote and pass the bipartisan infrastructure bill.

Holding this bill hostage is not going to work in getting my support for the reconciliation bill.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CHARLES PAYNE, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: If President Biden thought his infrastructure and social spending bills were going to breeze through Congress, Democratic Senator Joe Manchin just put the kibosh on all of it, accusing Democrats of holding the infrastructure package hostage.

Welcome, everyone. I'm Charles Payne, in for Neil Cavuto, and this is "Your World."

To Chad Pergram on Capitol Hill with the fallout from all of this -- Chad.

CHAD PERGRAM, FOX NEWS CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good afternoon, Charles.

Well, this was vintage Joe Manchin, swooping in at the last minute and pushing for changes, so he can possibly claim victory later. Manchin has long been concerned about the cost of the bill. And if the House was going to vote midweek, there was no way they'd have a price tag from the Congressional Budget Office.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MANCHIN: What I see are shell games, budget gimmicks that make the real cost of the so-called $1.75 trillion bill estimated to be almost twice that amount.

It is obvious compromise is not good enough for a lot of my colleagues in Congress. It is all or nothing. And their position doesn't seem to change unless we agree to everything. Enough is enough.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: Manchin is turning the tables on liberals. They said they won't vote on infrastructure until there's a deal on the social spending plan. Manchin wants to disconnect those bills.

Liberals say everyone should embrace what the president endorsed. Progressives seemed ready to vote before Manchin grabbed the hand brake.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. PRAMILA JAYAPAL (D-WA): I would just urge everybody to keep tempers down. Sometimes, this happens in final negotiations. And we will trust the president that he is going to get 51 votes for this bill that we have negotiated in good faith with all the senators on.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: The length of this process is wearing on Democrats.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THOMAS KAHN, AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: You do have this Stockholm syndrome. And I think 95 percent of the Democratic Caucus is saying, look, we negotiated it. we fought over it. We got some of what we wanted. We didn't get some of what we wanted.

But that's the legislative process. And in the end, let's just pass it let's get it over with.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PERGRAM: Democrats are still trying to resolve issues about medicine covered under Medicare and immigration.

The White House says -- quote -- "We remain confident that the plan will gain Senator Manchin's support." That means it's up to President Biden to deliver the votes -- Charles.

PAYNE: Chad, thank you very much.

Now reaction from the White House.

Jacqui Heinrich is traveling with the president in Edinburgh, Scotland -- Jacqui.

JACQUI HEINRICH, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey there, Charles.

Well, we should start by saying nobody should really be surprised to hear that this Tuesday vote that we have all been anticipating is not likely to happen.

Not only are Democrats still trying to make changes to this bill, as the president, by the way, is touting it almost like it's a done deal while he's meeting with foreign leaders here at COP 26, but it has not been scored by the Congressional Budget Office, as Chad mentioned. It also hasn't been ruled on, the immigration portion, by the parliamentarian.

There were a lot of things that were going to make this a very difficult thing to accomplish before Biden got here. Obviously, that whole process got derailed. The planned vote last week never happened. And they were hoping to get a vote ahead of the election, the Virginia governor's race, which is seen as a referendum really on Democrats' ability to get things done.

And also they want to be able to talk about the achievements here. The president wanted to able to talk about the achievements as he stood shoulder to shoulder with foreign leaders, trying to make overtures that other countries should make bigger commitments on climate change, which is a big portion of this plan, $555 billion dollars in proposed spending.

But Manchin and Sinema, they have been unwilling to voice enough support for this for the last two months to get progressives anyway OK with having a vote on the infrastructure bill. And Manchin coming out today really sort of put the kibosh on that, and it followed a lot of momentum last week that we saw from the White House.

So Press Secretary Jen Psaki appear to be taking a swipe at Manchin with this statement: "Senator Manchin says he's prepared to support a Build Back Better plan that combats inflation, is fiscally responsible and will create jobs. The House is finalizing meeting those tests."

And then it later on continues: "As a result, we remain confident that the plan will gain Senator Manchin's support."

Of course, that is not the same message we heard from Senator Manchin himself. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MANCHIN: To be clear, I will not support the reconciliation legislation without knowing how the bill will impact our debt and our economy and our country. And we won't know that until we work through the text.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HEINRICH: So, it's unclear at this point how long that's going to take for those -- for Manchin to get what he needs out of that.

You remember he initially proposed a $1.5 trillion bill. That was a great difference from the initial $6 trillion that the progressives wanted, the 3.5 that the White House wanted. They are miles apart on this.

However, they have been negotiating in good faith, I have heard from people on all sides for the last couple of months, so it will likely eventually get done. But the timeline is really slowing down the movement and the energy that the White House was hoping to get out of this -- Charles.

PAYNE: Yes, and I think they lost that a long time ago. Jacqui, thank you very much.

So, Senator Manchin also taking amen inflation fears fueled by all of this spending. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MANCHIN: Meanwhile, elected leaders continue to ignore exploding inflation, that our national debt continues to grow, and interest payments on the debt will start to rapidly increase when the Fed has to start raising interest rates to try to slow down this runaway inflation.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAYNE: FOX Business contributor Scott Martin, also Brandon Arnold With the National Taxpayers Union.

Let me start with you, Scott.

It's interesting, because Jen Psaki's statement suggested that somehow this bill would curb spending. They have even gotten Janet Yellen over the weekend to somehow ditch her all her economic knowledge and say, yes, all this extra spending is somehow going to curb inflation, knowing that's the sweet spot.

Americans really are afraid of this bill now.

SCOTT MARTIN, FOX BUSINESS CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, inflation is the hot button, Charles.

And it's pretty simple math, actually. If you draw a correlation graph between inflation rates and the spending in D.C., they're pretty tight, because, obviously, injecting all this money into the system via M2, for example, has really spurred a lot of inflation concerns.

And another quick thing about the comments that were made earlier is like they're talking about this being a job creation bill. We have got 11 million jobs unfilled out there in the economy, and we don't have the labor force to even attack those. Are we so worried about creating new jobs on top of those? That doesn't seem like a big concern.

That inflation part certainly is.

PAYNE: Another concern, obviously, Brandon, are the taxes and all the different tax gimmicks that they have come up with.

What do you think of the latest ones that apparently they say will mean that this bill costs nothing and has zero cost to the American public?

BRANDON ARNOLD, NATIONAL TAXPAYERS UNION: Well, I think that's absolutely ridiculous. It's fantasyland math to say that this thing costs nothing.

When you look at the IRS expenditure, they say, if they put $80 billion into the IRS, they will get $400 billion in additional tax revenue back. Well, CBO, the Congressional Budget Office, says that's ridiculous. They say it's $200 billion. So they're doubling the amount of expected revenue here. They're basically making up numbers.

And all Manchin is asking for -- I give them a lot of credit -- is to actually see how much these provisions costs. Let's see what this bill cost before they vote on it, instead of Nancy Pelosi's let's pass this thing and then find out what's in it.

PAYNE: Scott, a poll over the weekend, an NBC poll, showing 71 percent of the country saying we're on the wrong track.

Even more telling, with these two spending bills, more than 30 percent said it would hurt people like me.

The American public, I guess something happened. There's been a general epiphany from that first tranche of money that the Biden administration put out, the $1.9 trillion and the after-effects of it. It's so interesting to see people saying, no, no more free money in this academy, because it's actually costing me more money.

MARTIN: Yes, and they keep it flowing.

And it just goes to show you the ego in D.C. to kind of ignore what the American people want and desire. And I give props to people who are answering those questions correctly and honestly, because somebody has got to get the message across to our friends in D.C. that this spending is out of control, it's not helping, it's hurting because of the inflation concerns and it's keeping people home instead of going back to work in some cases, and, therefore, it's completely unproductive.

So they have got to change their roll on this or change their realization on this out of D.C., or else this is going to get a lot worse.

PAYNE: Yes.

And, of course, Brandon, the main thing, of course, is, when we talk inflation, we're talking gas prices. It is the most insidious of all of them. It's a tax on everyone. And the poorer the household, the more deleterious it is. And that doesn't seem -- it doesn't seem like there's any stop in sight for higher gas prices.

ARNOLD: No. And, in fact, this bill would make it worse.

What it would do is make it more difficult and more expensive to extract energy, natural gas, oil from U.S. soil. So it's going to restrict supply, increase costs, make gas prices even higher, make it harder to heat your home during these cooler months here.

It's going to make inflation worse and hurt average families even more.

PAYNE: Scott, real quick, this notion of taxing unrealized gains, it's so weird. Everyone's pushing back against it. I'm not sure if that's still floating around there. But your thoughts on the impact of the market?

MARTIN: Well, look, Charles, I mean, that is the low-hanging fruit of a tax plan, frankly, because we have had such a boost in the stock market prices and other unrealized gains people have maybe in private investments because of the fact that we had this great recovery.

So it makes some sense to me that would be where the administration would go. As far as the market impact, I don't think the market believes it's going to happen. So, right now, the market is whistling by the graveyard as they kind of await what's going to be this new tax plan, as you mentioned earlier, how they're going to pay for some of these spending bills.

PAYNE: Yes.

ARNOLD: But, certainly, if that does go through and get in a bill, that's going to be hurtful to stocks.

PAYNE: A lot of people saying, OK, you're going to tax unrealized gains, do I get a credit in those years when I have unrealized losses?

Guys, thank you both very much. Appreciate it.

So are the president's polling problems today going to be Democrats' problems in Virginia and New Jersey tomorrow and beyond?

And here we go again, airlines struggling with bad weather and staff shortages and passengers are suffering with the holidays nearing. Is more turbulence ahead?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: So, on the eve of Election Day, it's a sprint to the finish for the candidates in key governor's races.

FOX News' Alexandria Hoff is in Leesburg, Virginia, with the latest on the fight for the commonwealth.

ALEXANDRIA HOFF, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Well, good afternoon to.

Yes, it has been a been a fight indeed, both candidates returning to battleground areas today. Republican Glenn Youngkin coming full circle to the cornerstone of his campaign, and that's been education.

Tonight, he's holding a rally where he will emphasize the role that parents have in schools. Earlier today, he was in Richmond. He went down to Virginia Beach. And he's going to be on his way back up here to Loudoun County, a much-talked-about area.

Over the weekend, his get-out-the-bus tour put in plenty of miles. He spent all day yesterday in far, far Southwest Virginia, that little pocket there, and it was a big gesture for those who live there.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: So, this is the first time I have been able to meet a governor candidate in person.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Sometimes, the people in Virginia don't realize that we're down here, and he has made it a point to get down here. It's so good to see a candidate that comes down and talks to the everyday people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOFF: Well, it's been a grassroots feel that Youngkin has been trying to convey.

He has not included the big names that his opponent Terry McAuliffe has on his campaign. Instead, he has focused on gaining support from parents who are frustrated by what they see as government intrusion in schools.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GLENN YOUNGKIN (R), VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: People are coming across the aisle. We're winning the independent vote by 20 points. Why?

Because we're talking about the values that Virginians hold dear.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOFF: And Youngkin has seen recent surges in the polls, but he warns supporters that polls alone do not win elections.

McAuliffe campaigned in Roanoke and Richmond today, where the former governor said that early voting is on his side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FMR. GOV. TERRY MCAULIFFE (D-VA): We can't go back. We don't want a Trump wannabe, someone who's been endorsed by Donald Trump 10 times.

Tonight, closing his campaign is Donald Trump. I mean, we don't need the hatred, the division.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOFF: Well, also, the other big off-year race to watch right now is the governor's race in New Jersey.

You have Republican Jack Ciattarelli vying to unseat the current governor, Phil Murphy, a Democrat. That race hasn't been nearly as close but it has gotten more competitive and definitely feisty, just as the one we have seen here in Virginia.

And we will be waiting to show you what this rally looks like. It begins at 8:00 tonight -- Charles.

PAYNE: Alexandria, thank you very much.

Meantime, President Biden's approval ratings continue to fall, and it's one of the reasons Republicans believe they can unseat Democrats in those governor's races.

New Jersey Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli was on "Cavuto Live" over the weekend. And he's predicting a GOP upset. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JACK CIATTARELLI (R), NEW JERSEY GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: The energy has been great up and down the state. Our rallies have been well-attended.

We're right where we need to be to carve out a win on Election Day. Republicans have done it six of the last 10 times in New Jersey. We're going to do it again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAYNE: So, will Biden's slipping poll numbers weigh down Democrats tomorrow?

Joining me now to weigh in, RealClearPolitics' Tom Bevan.

Tom, I got to tell you, I'm not a big poll guy, but I do think they're really great with respect to momentum. And it's pretty clear both of these candidates, particularly, of course, the Virginia Republican candidate, they have got all the momentum going into tomorrow.

TOM BEVAN, CO-FOUNDER AND EXECUTIVE EDITOR, REALCLEARPOLITICS.COM: No, Charles, that's absolutely right.

I mean, Youngkin leads in the last three polls that have been taken in the Virginia governor's race just over the last few days. And so clearly the trend line is moving in his favor. And I think that's why we have seen Democrats are really scrambling, particularly to get the black vote, which they think might end up saving McAuliffe.

The problem for McAuliffe, obviously, is that where he's lost ground, where Youngkin has seen the most momentum is in those northern suburbs. That's a critical part of any Democrats' coalition to win the state of Virginia. And Youngkin has really made up some ground there.

PAYNE: Is it the educational controversy, the notion that parents don't have a right to tell schools what to teach?

BEVAN: Yes, I mean, it's definitely -- it's a combination of things.

One, Terry McAuliffe put his foot in his mouth during that debate, and instead of backtracking and trying to correct that mistake, he doubled down, tripled down, quadrupled down, and it's become a big drag on his campaign. And Youngkin has exploded that, I think very effectively.

And then you mentioned also, I mean, President Biden, his domestic agenda, all of his poll numbers are sagging. He's at 43 percent approval in Virginia, a state he won by 10 points just a year ago. And so all of that combined has become sort of a perfect storm against Democrats and against McAuliffe.

And McAuliffe hasn't responded with any vision. He just keeps calling Youngkin Trump, which isn't really selling with voters, and hasn't really presented his vision for where he wants to lead that state.

PAYNE: Tom, I also look at a lot of economic data and economic surveys. On Friday, they had a sentiment report.

And the independents, where they feel right now, their current sentiment is the lowest it's been I think it was since 2012, some crazy number. And Gallup, most important problems in America right now, number one, government poor leadership. Immigration is rocketing higher. The federal budget deficit is rocketing higher, high cost of living and inflation.

These are all things that are rocketing to the top. And we're not hearing from these candidates what they're going to do about it. Do you think that President Biden's sort of -- sort of just brushing these issues away, instead of really tackling them, has cost his party dearly?

BEVAN: Oh, absolutely.

I mean, it's even worse than that. I mean, not only has the administration not really addressed the concerns of voters. They have been dismissive about it. They have sort of mocked them, Jen Psaki from the White House press Briefing Room about the tragedy of the treadmill that won't -- won't get here by Christmas or Chief of Staff Ron Klain retweeting something that these are sort of high-class problems to have.

That is not how voters are feeling about gas prices, food prices, things that they are seeing in their daily lives. And so I think the administration, not only had they not put forward a plan to address it. It's -- they have even done worse than that by sort of dismissing these concerns of the American people.

PAYNE: Right.

Tom, Neil also spoke with former Virginia Democratic Governor Douglas Wilder on "Cavuto Live," who said that the outcome of this race could hinge on the African-American turnout. Take a quick listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

FMR. GOV. DOUG WILDER (D-VA): Anyone that is coming to Virginia campaigning for the Democrat is campaigning to campaign for black votes, because no Democrat is going to win a statewide election without big turnout of the African-American community.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAYNE: And, Tom, I mean, listen to Democrats seem to always take the black vote for granted, until they really start to lose everything else. Are they hustling up?

They have brought in a whole bunch of people, including former President Barack Obama. Will that be enough, in your opinion?

BEVAN: I don't know.

I mean, it absolutely -- there's a big story in Politico this morning how they're scrambling to try and turn out black voters. You mentioned Barack Obama. Kamala Harris was there, Stacey Abrams. I mean, they have literally brought in everyone they can.

And it is going to be critical. I mean, Youngkin -- I'm sorry -- McAuliffe may still be able to pull this off. But if he does, it will be because he generated enough turnout among African-Americans to offset independent voters and those voters in the northern suburbs that he has lost ground with.

So it's absolutely critical to the McAuliffe campaign. They have known that for a long time, but I'm not sure if they have been able to activate those voters, certainly in the same way that Biden did one year ago.

PAYNE: No doubt.

Tom, thank you very much. Appreciate it.

BEVAN: Thanks, Charles.

PAYNE: A report on potential payments to certain migrants is not only -- is not the only thing, by the way, fueling the fierce debate. So is the president's response. We're going to explain that later.

But, first, more long lines and major headaches for flyers, and Jeff Flock is getting answers. Jeff is next.

JEFF FLOCK, FOX BUSINESS NETWORK CORRESPONDENT: It was the weekend from hell, Charles, for American Airlines, cancellations up and down.

And the problem is, today, it continues. We will tell you all about it just a minute.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: More tricks than treats for flyers this Halloween weekend. What does it mean for the holidays ahead? And what did President Biden say when asked about reported plans to offer migrants big payouts?

Find out 60 seconds.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Trick or treating is over, but it's still a scary scene for fliers across the country, especially on American Airlines, where the cancellations keep piling up.

To FOX Business Network's Jeff Flock at Philadelphia International Airport with the latest -- Jeff.

FLOCK: Weekend from hell for a lot of people, Charles. Yes, we're at Philadelphia International, but it was trouble all over the country, as the cancellations just piled up.

Take a look at the pictures from Miami International yesterday. This is people trying to rebook their flight after they were canceled at the last minute for many people. That's what got a lot of people angry. Take a look at the numbers on this.

As of Friday, 343 cancellations. Then it almost doubled for American on Saturday. Then it almost doubled again to over 1,000 cancellations yesterday, and, today, more yet, 415 more cancellations today. Not a pretty sight at all.

Some people have questioned, why is this? Could it be the vaccine mandate, the federal vaccine mandate for airline employees? The airlines say, no, that's not the case. They're just having trouble finding enough people.

Gary Kelly of Southwest had this similar problem about three weeks ago. Gary Kelly, the CEO said -- and I quote him now from an earnings call. He said: "We assumed that, OK, it's time to come back to work. They're going to show up, everything's going to be just like it was. And it's just not. It has -- "to quote him now -- "It has been messy."

Yes, it was messy out there. If you don't like bad language, Charles, don't look at Twitter and #AmericanAirlines. It will turn your hair curly.

(LAUGHTER)

FLOCK: Sir.

PAYNE: Hey, Jeff, before I let you go. I love when you interact with folks out there. I'm sure you must have spoke to a few.

What are they saying?

FLOCK: Philadelphia wasn't a hotbed of this, but people just don't like to be canceled at the last minute.

If you're going to cancel a flight, fine. I will go over the river and through the woods to grandmother's house on a sleigh or something. Don't tell me I'm going to go there and then not get there. That's what really ticks people off.

PAYNE: Yes.

And I don't think anyone is buying the excuse so far.

Jeff Flock, thank you very much, I think.

(LAUGHTER)

PAYNE: All right.

So, with the holidays fast approaching, are travelers approaching a breaking point?

Let's get the read from our travel guru, Mark Murphy.

Mark, seems like we're having you on a whole lot lately to talk about these cancellations that keep piling up.

(CROSSTALK)

MARK MURPHY, TRAVEL EXPERT: Yes.

PAYNE: It always feels like, when they said it, there's a wink, wink. Yes, weather, wink, wink.

Is there something much deeper than weather and employees not coming back to work here?

MURPHY: You know what it is? It's the vaccine mandates. And anybody who doesn't think that's the case, I don't know what planet they're living on. Maybe they need to take a flight to that planet check it out.

The reality check for the airlines, for the trucking industry, for the ports, for the police, go down the line. We are seeing it in every single sector. And that's what is creating all these disruptions. This could all go away very quickly if the administration removes the vaccine mandate, because, if you are a government supplier or contractor, you don't want to give up that revenue, so you're being forced to do this.

Your employees don't care about your government contracts. They care about their personal health. And they don't think you, as the CEO of an airline, should be instructing them what they have to do and what they have to put in their body.

And, unfortunately, this has been -- this has been something that's been coming. We have been seeing it over and over again. And now it's creating a head because you're coming up on that December 8 deadline. And people are saying, no, I won't do it.

You add on the top -- on top of all that a pilot shortage, man, you have got just the makings of an actual disaster without a plane crashing.

PAYNE: Yes, it's -- the good news is, we're starting to see the vaccines spike again. So, maybe, maybe the administration will relent here. And maybe that December 8 was just to scare everyone into submission, because a lot of people aren't -- a lot of people aren't going to get it. We know that.

MURPHY: Yes.

PAYNE: In New York City, they have closed down some firehouses.

So a lot of people put their personal freedom ahead of all of this stuff and their own ability to decide. What's it mean for the industry? And, by the way, let's remind the audience. Last March, this industry got $25 billion of taxpayer money, so that they would be prepared to serve once to once demand reappeared.

MURPHY: And the key was not getting rid of employees, not laying them off or firing them. Unfortunately, that is not happening.

So no matter what Kelly from Southwest says, there's a reality check, which is they have 800 fewer pilots, there's an overall pilot shortage. Employees aren't going to deal with these mandates. They're going to continue to walk out. Fliers are going to continue to get disrupted.

And what it's going to impact all the way down the line, it's going to impact the hotel and resort industry. It's going to impact the cruise industry, and although they're doing -- they're literally shooting themselves in the foot with their mandates. It's going to impact taxi drivers, Uber drivers, restaurants.

It just has such a cascading effect. People don't realize that one in 10 of all employees touch or are actively involved in the travel and hospitality industry globally. It is a massive industry. And all of these countrywide restrictions, I mean, think about it, Charles. If you have the vaccine, you can still spread COVID. We know that for a fact.

PAYNE: Yes.

MURPHY: So the idea that there's these vaccine mandates, in light of this data from the U.K. and Israel, and more is coming out everywhere -- look at Ireland these days -- it makes zero cents, literally zero cents.

PAYNE: I have got a minute to go.

When these things do happen, these hiccups seem to take a long time to unwind. If this persists the way it is right now, would the industry even be in a position to serve the public, even if there was demand for the holiday season?

MURPHY: Well, if they don't pull back on this mandate, you're going to have a disaster come Thanksgiving. And they're already saying, American is saying, well, we're hoping we can get it sorted out for Christmas travel.

Hello? Next up, Thanksgiving. And you might not be making it. I had a nephew who basically took about 13 or 14 hours longer to get home over the weekend from Fort Lauderdale, and he had the Uber to another airport to get a flight on a different airline because American scheduled him for two days in advance.

PAYNE: Yes.

MURPHY: He had to get back. He couldn't fly back on Monday. And guess what? We have more cancellations today. No guarantee.

PAYNE: I was on a couple of American flights last week that were half- empty. It's so -- I mean, it's just nuts.

Mark, thanks a lot. Really appreciate it.

MURPHY: Any time.

PAYNE: So, is the Biden administration really mulling plans for massive migrant payouts?

To Aishah Hasnie with what she's finding out -- Aishah.

AISHAH HASNIE, FOX NEWS CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Charles. yes, reportedly $450,000 per person. And if you thought that that's all Democrats were pushing for, think again.

More from the hill right after this break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: Mr. President, is it true that we're going to give $450,000 to border crossers who were separated?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

PAYNE: Well, it turns out taxpayers aren't the only one scratching their heads over a report of potential payments to migrants separated at the border.

To FOX News congressional correspondent Aishah Hasnie on Capitol Hill with the latest -- Aishah.

HASNIE: Hey there, Charles. Good afternoon to you.

Yes, there has been a huge backlash over these reports. But this reported payment, $450,000 per person, may not be the end of the conversation, as Democrats in Congress are still trying to push through immigration reform, that pathway to citizenship in the president's Build Back Better plan.

So what's happening right now is that lawmakers representing some 1,000 families who were separated while they were illegally crossing the Southern border under the Trump era basically are saying that the families suffered emotional and mental trauma over the separation.

The Wall Street Journal is reporting that the Biden administration is now working out some settlements of $450,000 a person. And Republicans are just simply outraged by this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. ELISE STEFANIK (R-NY): We are a country that's based upon the rule of law. So this is telling every American that you're going to be awarded for breaking the law, whereas those that abide by the law are at a disadvantage.

So it should outrage every American. And certainly House Republicans will oppose this.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HASNIE: And Congressman Dan Crenshaw adding this point here, tweeting: "Biden wants to pay illegal immigrants $450,000 for their hardship while breaking our laws. For perspective, if a service member is killed in action, their next of kin gets an insurance payment of $400,000. Let that sink in."

While one Gold Star parent came out and said that this is like being slapped in the face.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DAVID HORTON, GOLD STAR FATHER: Say, oh, OK, well, now we owe you money, and it's more money than we would pay a patriot.

I just -- I am outraged. I think this is -- you just wonder, where is the outcry against some of these policies that are just -- they're unbelievable to me.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HASNIE: Now, all of this, of course, coming with the backdrop that Democrats are still trying to work on this pathway to citizenship for dreamers and those with temporary protected status and also workers.

They're trying to get this into this multitrillion-dollar spending plan, which they will use the process of reconciliation to pass, but, so far, their plans have failed to pass congressional rules twice already, although Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin is trying to come up with this plan, see, third time's a charm, to try to get this through.

Of course, we will have to wait and see if that actually can happen -- Charles.

PAYNE: Aishah, before I let you go, are you hearing any rumblings from some of the elected leaders down there with this $450,000?

I can imagine even certain Democrats will be concerned, because the backlash has come from every part of this nation about, hey, listen, it doesn't have to be -- you don't have to be a Gold Star parent. Even if you fought overseas, and you came back and you can't find a job, many people find it's a slap in the face.

HASNIE: Well, absolutely, moderates are going to push back on this. But you really don't have to think one way or another. When it comes to immigration reforms.

There really are two problems here. And the first is that this is a reconciliation bill. And for folks at home that may have heard this word repeated over and over on our air and maybe don't understand it, it basically means that the party in power can move legislation through by a simple majority through the process of reconciliation.

Now, it has to have a financial impact, though. And the Senate parliamentarian, who serves as sort of a referee in this game, has basically said no to the Democrats twice already. So it's not likely that she's going to say yes this third time around.

The second problem with this is that the Senate has a very slim majority. And we keep hearing the names Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema for that very reason, because you got to get the moderates on board.

PAYNE: Yes, great point. Great point. Thank you very much. Appreciate it.

Meanwhile, folks, vaccines for children as young as 5 are shipping out. What do parents need to know? Dr. Marty Makary is next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: In-N-Out restaurants not backing down, even as many California locations are being shut down over defying local coronavirus vaccine mandates.

FOX Business correspondent Kelly O'Grady is in Hollywood, California, with more -- Kelly.

KELLY O'GRADY, FOX BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Charles, In-N-Out has chosen to close down all five of their indoor dining rooms in Contra Costa.

And that move comes his health officials closed down two locations briefly in the Bay Area for failing to check the vaccination status of indoor diners. Now, they are remaining open for drive-through and takeout.

But in a statement to FOX Business, In-N-Out argue that they shouldn't be required to demand proof of vaccination from every customer and affirmed that they wouldn't become the vaccination police. Now, many industry advocates agree the burden shouldn't fall on restaurants. And they are worried that these mandates will hurt businesses already that had been ravaged by the pandemic.

Now, we talked to customers to see what they thought amidst the controversy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Kind of doing same stuff. If you want to go inside the restaurant, you had proved that you had got vaccinated.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: My son and I are unvaccinated. We're proud of it. And we're supporting them 100 percent.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's all we want, is transparency. I'm dining outside. I'm getting my stuff inside and dining out, but whatever we got to do, we got to do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

O'GRADY: Now, as you can see, it's a bit of a mixed bag. But as L.A.'s vaccine mandate comes into effect November 8, the issue isn't going away.

Now, from a business perspective, In-N-Out is a fast food chain and it's well-equipped to serve patrons via takeout. And a good portion of their sales already come through drive-through. But this raises the broader question of how those that rely more heavily on indoor dining will cope as more of these mandates are issued.

Now, In-N-Out has options. The CFO of Florida has welcomed the restaurant with open arms, saying that they won't face restrictions if they expand into the county. But I think it's important to mention that this isn't a question of being anti-vax or not. It's really about enforcement and whether that should fall on restaurants -- Charles.

PAYNE: Kelly, thank you very much.

Meantime, the White House today saying its vaccination program for children aged 5 to 11 will be fully operational starting next week.

So, what should parents do?

John Hopkins medical professor and FOX News medical contributor Dr. Marty Makary joins me now.

Doctor, I'm reading an Ipsos poll where 42 percent of parents say they're unlikely to have their children vaccinated. Your thoughts? I know you have been inundated with this.

DR. MARTY MAKARY, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Yes, and other polls, Charles, suggests that only 27 percent of parents are ready to get their kids vaccinated right away in that 5 to 11 age group.

We don't know what the risk is going to be in a post-pandemic era, which is really what we're preparing kids for. Right now, the risk of COVID hospitalization in the population of all kids 5 through 11 is one in 167,000 per week. That's what's on the CDC Web site.

And that's probably -- that risk is going to decline. I think the vaccine in kids 5 through 11 is not a one-size-fits-all strategy. If a kid has a comorbidity, then, yes, it makes sense. I would space that more than three weeks. I would do three months. If a kid had the infection in the past, that is, they have natural immunity, no.

And for everybody else in the middle, it's a personal decision. Some parents are going to be concerned about the risks of side effects and even the rare risks of myocarditis, which are as high as one in 7,000 boys.

PAYNE: So, we have got two million cases in the 5 to 11 group, 8, 300 hospitalizations and 170 deaths. You never want to minimize any deaths.

But you just brought up the statistics. It just sounds like -- you wonder where the urgency is. Why does it have to happen right now? Have there been enough tests on this? Are we going to learn some of these things through trial and error?

MAKARY: And the CDC has never told us how many of the deaths and MIS-C cases in kids have been in healthy kids. And we think nearly all have been kids with a comorbid condition. So that's the group really where I would pay attention, or if your kid is close to somebody with a comorbid condition or is otherwise vulnerable.

But just to give you an sense as to how blanket, blind and indiscriminate the vaccinate all kids 5 through 11 policy is, the Pfizer study itself said that no cases of COVID-19 -- and I will give you the exact words -- were observed in either the vaccine group or the placebo group in participants with evidence of prior COVID infection.

So we're seeing a strong recommendation that's disproportionate to the data to support it, especially in kids with natural immunity.

PAYNE: So, Dr. Makary, it's -- we have been here before, obviously, every time there's another round to this, a second shot, the booster shot.

A lot of folks are saying just more or less get over it, because kids have to take a lot of vaccines in order to go to school. It's something that we have become used to in this country. So a lot of folks don't understand why there would be resistance. What are parents telling you?

MAKARY: Well, this is not a traditional vaccine technology. So parents are a little concerned, and when you do have some solid evidence that vaccine complications appear to be much higher with this COVID vaccine than with other vaccines.

For example, 10 percent of kids in the trial 5 through 11 got a side effect; 6.5 percent got a fever, some as high as 104 degrees, a high-grade fever. And in The New England Journal of Medicine three weeks ago, they looked at 136 kids who had myocarditis from the Pfizer vaccine, and one child died.

So extrapolating that to the broader population of boys, that's about one in a million kids who get the vaccine boys will die from the vaccine.

PAYNE: Do we know what the side effects are?

MAKARY: They're the same -- it's the same side effect profile as in adults.

Now, if people just space it out by three months, that side effect profile goes way down. That's what we should be recommending. But the regulatory process simply rubber-stamps whatever child comes through, and they don't adapt based on the new guidance that three months is better, safer.

It's better immunity and it's lower complications. And that's why it's good for people to go into their pediatrician's office, rather than a mass vaccination center, and talk about these alternative strategies of one dose or spacing them out further.

PAYNE: Right.

I'm sure parents are definitely going to take that route.

Dr. Makary, thank you very much.

MAKARY: Thanks.

PAYNE: So forget today after Thanksgiving. Those Black Friday deals are already here right now. But is it a sign that retailers are worried?

We will explain.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

PAYNE: Major retailers already out with those Black Friday deals usually meant for the day after Thanksgiving.

So, is this a sign companies are worrying about supply chain issues?

Retail watcher Hitha Herzog joins me now.

Hitha, I'm reading from the national retailing group that this is going to be the biggest, best Christmas Ever. So why are they starting the sales now?

HITHA HERZOG, RETAIL WATCHER: I think they say that every year, but I'm looking at the numbers, Charles, and you're really right.

It's around $859 billion they are expecting people to spend on holiday alone in total this holiday season. That's around $997 per person. And that's up 10 percent from last year. But I keep citing this study that I have been reading and kind of my go-to for the supply chain from Oracle.

And it said that 28 percent of people had already started their holiday shopping. And to your point, a lot of these retailers have had these sales, some as early as October 15. But one in particular, and that's Best Buy, that started October 31. A lot of those electronics are on sale.

And the reason why I'm talking about this is because Best Buy is projecting a 28 percent revenue growth over the next quarter.

PAYNE: Right.

HERZOG: So they are really focusing in on those electronics and trying to get them out the door.

PAYNE: Here's the thing, though.

I was in best buy on Saturday, and most of the -- a lot of the shelves were empty, the things that I really wanted to get. They had one drone left. But a lot of the other things that the kids that are saying that they want, they didn't have them there.

And so I'm not sure. If you want it, you got to go online. Will we be able to get it before Christmas?

HERZOG: Yes, I think that's the best strategy right now. People should head online immediately. Obviously, make your list. Make sure that people aren't giving you the gift list early, because I would say -- I mean, I have been saying really October 31 was the cutoff to really get exactly what you want.

But if you're really trying to push it, I would say middle of November. Even now, you're going to start spending more for those gifts that everyone wants. So, online at this point is your best bet.

Charles, they are trying to empty out those shelves, mostly to get the new product in. But as we know, there's a supply chain crisis that's happening. And it's -- a lot of that product is stuck off the coast of Los Angeles and Long Beach.

PAYNE: Right, that armada of ships that we see out there, right, hundreds of ships.

What happens if all this stuff gets here after Christmas? Could we see some real big-time sales after -- after maybe the holidays?

HERZOG: That is a really good point.

And a lot of these -- a lot of the product that is about to be delivered, with the exception of the decorations and seasonal specific-stuff, is actually more throughout the year. So, again, I was talking to Leslie Ghize over at Tobe Doneger Group, and she was saying that retailers almost plan to be in a gifting all-year-round mode.

So, expect these retailers, even if a large shipment comes in, in January or February...

PAYNE: Right.

HERZOG: ... the shelves will be stocked. They're really trying to push this whole idea of gifting all year round into May, June, July, as long as the supply chain situation goes on.

PAYNE: Hitha, I have just got 20 seconds, but is inflation -- any chance that that could derail some of these sales, if we're paying so much for just ordinary items?

HERZOG: A lot of these products and a lot of -- for the consumer psyche, the inflation's already built in at this point.

Americans like to shop, especially during a holiday. It's almost our salve as we go into a year that we have had not so many great times. We just want to go ahead and shop and maybe create some better times.

PAYNE: Yes. Yes, we do, absolutely.

Hitha, great seeing you. Thank you very much.

And, folks, that will do it here. I want to thank you all for joining us.

And, by the way, Neil will be back tomorrow.

But you can catch me at 2:00 p.m. Eastern every weekday on "Making Money" on the FOX Business Network.

And, by the way, speaking of making money, folks, records across the board, the Dow all-time high, the S&P all-time high, the Nasdaq all-time high. I will be all over it tomorrow. So, check in for your portfolio and your fortunes.

But, for now, "The Five" starts.

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