This is a rush transcript from "Special Report with Bret Baier," October 8, 2018. This copy may not be in its final form and may be updated.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIPS)
PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP: I thought the way they behaved was absolutely atrocious. The way they really tortured him and his family, I thought it was a disgrace. The main base of the Democrats have drifted so far left that we'll end up being Venezuela. This country would end up being Venezuela. I think a lot of Democrats are going to be voting Republican on November 6.
SEN. MAZIE HIRONO, D-HAWAII: All these angry people out there, they know that it is the people who are sitting in the Senate that they've elected who are making these decisions, and they're going to go to the polls and they're going to vote differently.
(END VIDEO CLIPS)
BRET BAIER, ANCHOR: Both sides saying that the Brett Kavanaugh situation, now Justice Brett Kavanaugh, will motivate their sides come midterm elections. Look at just some of the races that some of the polls have shifted in the past week. The Florida Senate race, before Rick Scott was up 1.6. Now Nelson was up 2.4. Arizona was a pickup for the Senate for the Democrat there, the Arizona Senate race. The Texas Senate race, before Cruz 3.4, now Cruz by six.
How it plays across the country and whether it's really tied to Brett Kavanaugh or not, that's what we have a panel for, Chris Stirewalt is politics editor here at FOX News, Leslie Marshall, syndicated talk radio host, and former White House press secretary, Ari Fleischer.
We just picked out those three, Chris. You look at some other polls that have come out this week about enthusiasm, Democrats and Republicans, NPR/Marist poll, up to 82 percent on both sides. How does it play?
CHRIS STIREWALT, FOX NEWS: The volume goes to 11 on this one. We were just having a discussion, a decision team call where we were talking about what we expect turn out to be. And honest to goodness I cannot tell you right now what kind of a turnout situation we are looking at. 2014 saw the lowest midterm turnout since 1942, when we had some other stuff to deal with. And I have no idea whether we're going to see a surge on both sides, a lopsided, or a large number of people are going to be so disgusted by what's going on, so grossed out by the current political climate, that they absent themselves.
BAIER: But it's clear that the whole thing motivated both sides?
STIREWALT: Look, I think the rule of thumb here is, if you are playing out of position, this was a bad week for you. If you are a Republican in a blue state that's a bad week for you. If you are a Democrat in a red state it's a bad week for you because what it's done is brought the intensity up on both sides. It's more important for Republicans, though, because was lagging. So this gave them something they needed.
BAIER: Leslie, thoughts?
LESLIE MARSHALL, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: I agree, but I think it's temporary, except for women. When you are at a restaurant and you don't like your food, you ask to speak to the manager. And I think it's like that. The Democrats are angry. When other people in this country were angry, whether they were Republicans, Democrats, independents, you ended up with Donald Trump as president.
So I think we are going to see numbers that we haven't seen in certain communities. I think millennials will come out, Latinos, but women. I think this is really going to be the year of women. And I think Kavanaugh, this whole situation has definitely, as we have seen in numbers, had some women in the Republican Party saying this isn't forming.
BAIER: The president addressed that on Air Force One, asked about women in the elections.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The women I feel were in many ways stronger than the men in his favor. So you have a lot of women that are extremely happy, a tremendous number of women, because they're thinking of their sons, they're thinking of their husbands and their brothers and their uncles, and others. And women are, I think, extremely happy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BAIER: Ari, it depends on where you are, we see these suburban districts, House races, where it seems like the president's approval is underwater and maybe even more so after this Kavanaugh situation. But other places it plays exactly opposite.
ARI FLEISCHER, FORMER WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: There's been one factor that we've seen for a year, and it's consistent. That's Democrats are fired up. Special elections that Republicans typically win by double digits we were winning by one digit. And in the case of Pennsylvania we lost a safe Republican district. What's changed now, and the question is how long will it change, is conservatives are fired up. Let me give you three numbers on why that's so important -- 32, 42, 37. When George Bush was president --
BAIER: Karl Rove had a whiteboard. Why didn't you bring a whiteboard? Seriously, where's the props.
FLEISCHER: I'm not going to beat Karl.
BAIER: All right.
FLEISCHER: But 32, 42, 37. In 2006, Bush's last midterm when he lost the House and the Senate, Republicans lost them all, the percentage of the electorate that said they were conservative was 32 percent, a very low number. Four years later, Barack Obama's first midterm, 42 percent of the electorate said they were conservative. Republicans won the House in the biggest midterm sweep of 70 years. Four more years later, the second Obama midterm, 37 percent of the electorate identified as conservative. Republicans took the Senate.
The point being, if conservatives sit at home and sit out the election and the way they did in 2006, Republicans are dead in the water. If as a result of the Kavanaugh hearing conservatives get fired up and, they say we're turning out, there's too much on the line, you could have a very different election. And so far it's all been in the Democrats favor. In the last four weeks, it may shift.
BAIER: Here is one poll, the NPR/PBS/Marist poll I referenced earlier. It's out today. Job approval for the president, 41-53. That matches our FOX numbers roughly. At that approval number, how does that play across the country? Each state there is a different Trump approval and how it factors.
STIREWALT: That's right. And so the president is back to sort of the upper end of his range, or approaching the upper end of his range. He has lived essentially 38, 42 or 43 percent. That's been his space. Sometimes it's up a little. Sometimes it's down a little bit.
The real, if I can posit this, and this is just a theory I have, and I don't know if this is going to hold, but I think arguably the best part about the Kavanaugh mania about all this explosion, the biggest news story I can remember, biggest news story I can remember certainly in two years was this. We weren't talking about all of the stuff that we are usually talking about. I think one of the reasons the president's approval numbers -- he did have a very good week in all of the good news that he had on NAFTA and everything else. But also, the focus has been off of Trump for a second. It's been on something else for a while, instead of constant, constant, constant Trump focus. And I think that helps them get back up in the upper part of his register.
BAIER: So I just wanted to point this out. Taylor Swift has weighed in on a race in Tennessee. Taylor Swift is putting on Instagram "As much as I have in the past, and would like to continue voting for women in office, I cannot support Marsha Blackburn. Her voting record in Congress appalls and terrifies me." Let's take a look at the race in Tennessee. It's for Senate, Marsha Blackburn a Republican, and the Real Clear Politics average has her up about 2.7, and president decided to weigh in on this today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Marsha Blackburn is doing a very good job in Tennessee. She has a substantial lead. She's a tremendous woman. I'm sure Taylor Swift doesn't know anything about her. And let's say that I like Taylor's music about 25 percent less now, OK?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BAIER: I just wanted to play that soundbite.
(LAUGHTER)
BAIER: But the point is that everybody has a point of view, and obviously, Taylor Swift is weighing in.
MARSHALL: I know some people might say they like or music or not, who cares? Why do we care about her political opinion? But millennials care. And people that may not come out and have not come out certainly for my party, when you were looking at -- unlike the president said, a substantial lead, I don't consider 2.7 substantial. Less than three percent certainly within the margin of error, and we are talking about a very red state, to see a Democrat less than three points behind Republicans in a state like Tennessee I think is very encouraging for Democrats.
BAIER: But we are 29 days. The news cycles, I mentioned with Brit Hume earlier, are about six or seven per day. So we're going to be looking at a lot of shiny things between now and Election Day that could change that dynamic entirely.
FLEISCHER: One-hundred percent. And by the way, I am for whatever Meatloaf or Robert Earl Keen, whoever they endorse.
(LAUGHTER)
STIREWALT: Two out of three.
MARSHALL: That was good.
BAIER: Kick it off. All right, I have got to run. Make your point.
FLEISCHER: Back to politics. Nine races count in the Senate, three races Republicans could lose, Arizona, Nevada, and Tennessee. There are six that the Democrats can lose, and so the math is still with the Republicans, and nine races are very close and could go either way for either party. So Democrats could take the Senate if they run the table. Republicans could have a very big night in the Senate. We don't know yet.
Content and Programming Copyright 2018 Fox News Network, LLC. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Copyright 2018 CQ-Roll Call, Inc. All materials herein are protected by United States copyright law and may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, displayed, published or broadcast without the prior written permission of CQ-Roll Call. You may not alter or remove any trademark, copyright or other notice from copies of the content.
Fox News First
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox.
By entering your email and clicking the Subscribe button, you agree to the Fox News Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and agree to receive content and promotional communications from Fox News. You understand that you can opt-out at any time.
