Why Bush Won and Kerry Lost

Why Bush won and Kerry lost: that is the subject of this evening's "Talking Points Memo."

Here's the No Spin analysis of the vote:

One: most Americans like President Bush personally but they never got to know John Kerry because he wouldn't open up -- not even to Dr. Phil (search).

Two: the folks recognize that Mr. Bush was handed a sinking economy  and a devastating war in his first year in office, a tough hand for any  politician.  At the same time, there were doubts about Kerry's ability to lead.  Some of those doubts were unfair, but they were in play.

Three: many Americans forgave the president for the mistakes in Iraq, helped along by Senator Kerry's failure to define a better policy in that difficult country.

Four: the majority of Americans respect the president's traditional  beliefs.  Very few of us understood exactly what John Kerry believed and how his beliefs were formed.

And five: the folks resented the dishonest and defamatory personal attacks on Mr. Bush by some in the media because, again, most Americans like the president.  John Kerry was also unfairly attacked.  But since he had little emotional currency with the folks, those attacks did not raise  much backlash.

Finally, the president is perceived as being a stand-up guy.  Kerry decked the tough media, thus he came across as unsure of himself and his  policies.

So that's what happened.  Personality and values trumped public policy and mistakes.  Kerry could have won the election if he had been bold in his presentation and open with the folks.  Instead, he came across as robotic  and rehearsed, a classic old time politician.

“The Factor” didn't predict the race, but we did call all the states correctly, except for New Hampshire.  We didn't make a call on Ohio and  that of course was the difference.

But once again, "Factor" viewers and listeners accurately predicted the election. -- It's amazing.  Our billoreilly.com poll asked you to pick a  winner.  About 150,000 of you voted.  89 percent chose Bush, 11 percent Kerry.  Once again, "Factor" folks showing their perspicacity.

Finally, John Kerry waged an intense campaign.  He should applauded for his effort. The guy is as hardworking as they come. -- But he simply did not give the folks what they needed to vote him in: a genuine look at himself.

And that's "The Memo."

The Most Ridiculous Item of the Day

There is a report in "The National Post" of Canada -- which I cannot  verify -- that actor Robert Redford (search) may leave the USA because President Bush  was reelected.  Redford is thinking about moving to Ireland, according to  that newspaper, but I may physically try to stop him from do that.

Bob, hey, go to Canada, France, Croatia, not Ireland.

Anyway,  Redford has been running far-left propaganda on his Sundance  channel.  So what goes around comes around, Sundance.  You know what I'm  talking about?  See you in Toronto, not Dublin.  That would be ridiculous.

—You can watch Bill O'Reilly's "Talking Points Memo" and "Most Ridiculous Item" weeknights at 8 and 11 p.m. ET on the FOX News Channel. Send your comments to: oreilly@foxnews.com