Things Aren't Always as They Seem

He was not supposed to win the presidency.

His incumbent opponent hoped he'd be the guy to challenge him for the presidency.

He was too conservative.

Too Hollywood. Too extreme. Too much.

He was Ronald Reagan (search). And he won.

Before that, the incumbent he beat was a challenger four years earlier thought easy to beat.

A peanut farmer. An outsider. A certain loser.

But that year, at that time, Jimmy Carter (search) was a winner.

Nothing profound here, save this.

Beware snapshot judgments.

They are only images for the moment, at that moment.

They rarely last.

A timely message for those who say Hillary Clinton (search) is a sure thing for her nomination.

She's not.

And if she gets the nomination, her extreme negatives will prevent her getting elected.

They won't.

That's not me saying that. That's history proving that.

The unelectable who got elected.

The surely electable who got rejected.

I remember in 1994 Bill Clinton (search) was clamoring for relevance when all thought he was a one-termer.

He wasn't.

Or back in 1982 when a recession gripped the nation and Ronald Reagan was certain to implode.

He didn't.

Right now experts are saying Republicans are in disarray and certain to lose.

As things stand now, they're probably right.

They are in disarray. And they are in trouble.

Just like Harry Truman (search) was in trouble in 1948 and certain to lose — until conventional wisdom gave way to voters' wisdom.

When the consensus proved wrong.

And having a healthy dose of skepticism for it proved right.

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