The Numbers Tell Me It's Not Over for Hillary Clinton

Just today I think I've read no less than half a dozen stories depicting how Hillary Clinton has lost the Democratic nomination.

That if she can't win Texas and Ohio, she's finished.

Another commentator insists that won't be enough. She's got to win them big.

And I'm thinking to myself, "Self, she trails Barack Obama by what? Not even a hundred delegates?"

Both are essentially tied, both a little more than half way there.

Look, I'm not taking sides in this race.

I'm just looking at the numbers in this race.

Let's say, indeed, Hillary doesn't win both Texas and Ohio.

She loses Texas, but wins Ohio.

Let's also say Vermont and Rhode Island are similarly split that day.

By my math, they come out still roughly the same 100 delegates apart.

Perhaps Obama adds to that by picking up wins in the weeks that follow in Wyoming and Mississippi.

But let's say, Hillary Clinton still keeps her big-state advantage, and takes Pennsylvania on April 22 and picks up Oregon, where she's also been polling well, the next month.

Then we're back to where we are and neither candidate at the magic 2025 delegates needed for the nomination.

I don't think any of these are crazy scenarios, actually quite conservative ones.

I guess momentum could change things. But many a pundit's been burned on this momentum thing — it was supposed to help Obama in New Hampshire after Iowa and it didn't — and help Mitt Romney in Florida after Michigan and it didn't do that either.

All I'm saying is it isn't over.

A pundit didn't tell me that.

The numbers did.

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