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Poll Watch: GOP Fires Spreading in the House

By | Fox News

WASHINGTON – With the countdown to Election Day being measured in hours, new fires keep popping up for the Grand Old Party and they only hope there's enough water in the pumper to keep their House intact.

One new flame appears to be flaring in conservative-leaning New Hampshire, which might not be so conservative after all. Other new releases show that Democrats are widening the battle line in their offensive to take 15 seats from Republicans in the House.

Senate Republicans need to keep Democrats from taking away six seats if they want to maintain control, and there's plenty of uncertainty in those races. But Republicans might be feeling a little more comfort in numbers from Tennessee, where it looks like Republican Bob Corker is pulling away from a tough challenge by Democrat Rep. Harold Ford Jr.

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In the House ... GOP Not Rock Solid in Granite State

Both of New Hampshire's House seats are in play this year, according to Oct. 29-Nov. 1 University of New Hampshire polls, with a Democrat leading in the in the 2nd District, and a Democrat closing fast in the 1st District.

Second District poll of 330 likely voters, by the numbers: Democrat and Concord attorney Paul Hodes, 45 percent; Republican Rep. Charles Bass, 37 percent; Libertarian candidate Ken Blevins, 2 percent; other candidate, 2 percent; undecided, 14 percent; margin of error, 5.4 percent.

First District poll of 352 likely voters, by the numbers: Republican Rep. Jeb Bradley, 47 percent; Democratic challenger Carol Shea-Porter, 42 percent; other candidate, 1 percent; undecided, 10 percent; margin of error, 5.2 percent.

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A "Blue"-grass State?

Survey USA's Oct. 30-Nov. 1 poll of 610 likely voters in Kentucky's 3rd District shows Democratic challenger John Yarmuth up by 8 points over the Republican incumbent, Rep. Anne Northrup. Despite what would appear to be an advantage, the two are roughly even in polls through October, and different polling methods are producing different results.

By the numbers: Yarmuth, 52 percent; Northrup, 44 percent; undecided, 2 percent; non-major party candidates, 2 percent; margin of error, 4 percent.

IVR, or interactive voice response, surveys tend to be showing Yarmuth in the lead. The Louisville Courier-Journal survey, which was a traditional "live caller" poll favored Northrup.

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Undecided in Idaho's 1st District

This race to fill the spot left by C.L. "Butch" Otter has the state advertising sector flush with partisan money in an attempt to grab the huge "undecided" vote, which according to the Oct. 30-Nov. 1 poll by Greg Smith & Associates, stands at a whopping 25 percent.

Still, the conservative district is leaning toward Democrat Larry Grant, who has a 4 percentage point lead over Republican Bill Sali. The two are vying to fill the seat being vacated by Rep. C.L. "Butch" Otter, who is the Republican candidate for Governor against Democrat Jerry Brady.

Smith's poll of 287 likely voters, by the numbers: Grant, 38 percent; Sali, 34 percent; undecided, 25 percent; nonmajor party candidate or other answer, 3 percent; margin of error, 5.7 percent.

Smith tells FOXNews.com that the enormous undecided count -- which has widened in recent polls -- indicates the tough choice between the two candidates: Sali has a bit of a reputation for being a conservative, but brash state lawmaker; Grant wins points on personality, but his liberal leanings in this "red" state make Idahoans cool to the candidate.

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In the Senate ... Very Volatile Virginia

According to the Nov. 2 Rasmussen Reports poll of 500 likely voters, Republican Sen. George Allen and Democrat and former Navy Secretary Jim Webb are tied even at 49 percent. Recent trends have favored Webb, who has led in five of the last six polls. Could this tie signal the end of the trend?

Allen dug himself pretty deep when he called a Democratic operative a racial epithet -- albeit an uncommon one in the lower 48 -- and took hits for being a youthful bully and a bigot. But Allen's gone on the offensive, pointing to previous positions on women in the military as evidence of sexism and using racy scenes authored by Webb as ammunition.

By the numbers: Webb, Allen, 49 percent; margin of error, 4.5 percent; undecided voters not tallied as of 3 p.m. Friday.

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Missouri Stays Within the Margins

Alfred Hitchcock couldn't write a better suspense plot. This race has been hanging in the balance for three weeks and counting. Did the latest Rasmussen Reports poll give any hints? ... Nope.

Rasmussen's Nov. 2 poll of 500 likely voters, by the numbers: Democrat Claire McCaskill, 49 percent; Republican Sen. Jim Talent, 48 percent; margin of error, 4.5 percent; undecided not tallied as of 3 p.m. Friday.

While McCaskill has had the lead in polls this week, they all have been in the margin of error. The two candidates have been close throughout the season, pulling even with each other six times -- twice since Oct. 26. President Bush stopped here Friday in hopes of budging the numbers, and an 11th-hour ad blitz is underway.

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Ray of Hope Shines on Burns in Big Sky Country

The second poll in as many days shows that Republican Sen. Conrad Burns can't be counted out yet, despite public image problems of late. Burns comes in at 4 percent behind Democrat Jon Tester, a statistical tie because it is within the poll's 4.5 percent margin of error.

Rasmussen's Nov. 1 poll of 500 likely voters, by the numbers: State Sen. Tester, 50 percent; Burns, 46 percent; other candidate, 2 percent; undecided, 1 percent.

Tester has been leading in the polls for most of the race, but generally within the polling margin of error. He has been buoyed by Burns' ties to lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and other public missteps.

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Corker Trend Steady in Tennessee

The race to fill the seat left by Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is showing a that former Chattanooga mayor Bob Corker, the Republican candidate, has a slight edge over the Democratic candidate, Rep. Harold Ford Jr. While Ford was showing strength in earlier polls, this is a Republican leaning state, and it might be tough to overcome a lead this late in the race.

Rasmussen's Nov. 2 poll of 500 likely voters, by the numbers: Corker, 53 percent; Ford, 42 percent; undecided not tallied by 3 p.m. Friday; margin of error, 4.5 percent.

• Click here to check the latest Tennessee Senate race polls @ BALANCE OF POWER.

• Click here for complete YOU DECIDE 2006 coverage from FOXNews.com.