This is a partial transcript from The O'Reilly Factor, January 7, 2003.

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BILL O'REILLY, HOST:  In the Factor Follow-Up segment tonight, Dick Morris has a column today [January 7, 2004] in "The New York Post" where he says Howard Dean's in pretty good shape for the Democratic presidential nomination.  Here's Dick.

I'm one of the few guys that consider a holdout.  I just think that once he gets out of New Hampshire and Iowa, it's not going to be that easy for Governor Dean.  And even in New Hampshire, a new poll says that Clark is coming up, right?

DICK MORRIS, FOX NEWS POLITICAL ANALYST:  Yes, it's going to be harder for him because when he wins Iowa, he knocks out Gephardt.  When he wins New Hampshire, he knocks out Kerry.  And when he wins South Carolina, he knocks out Edwards.

O'REILLY:  But I don't think he's going to win South Carolina.

MORRIS:  I mean, well, he or Sharpton will, I think.  And a nine-way race then becomes a three way race.

O'REILLY:  But Edwards has no chance down there?

MORRIS:  He has some chance.

O'REILLY:  I think he's got the chance down there.

MORRIS:  No, but you got to spot these numbers 10 points.  Once he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, move his numbers up every place 10 points.

O'REILLY:  Yes.  What if Clark does better and almost beats him in New Hampshire, because Clark looks like he's rising up there?

MORRIS:  Well, that could be significant.


MORRIS:  But the problem that Clark has, and the advantage that Dean has, is that the primaries are so compacted, that Clark from almost a dead stop standstill, which kind of where he is now, with slight little momentum, has got to be able to raise enough money in five weeks...

O'REILLY:  Yes, to get out into the big...

MORRIS:  ... to go in California, New York, Texas, and Ohio.

O'REILLY:  You had an interesting observation when you came on the set about the red state/blue state segment we did.

MORRIS:  Yes.  Your first segment and your third segment are the same.  You look at the blue states and the red states.  In 50 United States, there's only one state that's gotten more Republican, and that's Minnesota.  On the other hand, Texas, Florida, New York...

O'REILLY:  Jersey.

MORRIS:  ...Ohio, Jersey, Pennsylvania have all become much more Democrat, and it's because of Hispanic immigration.

When I worked for Clinton in '96, I did a study where I said at 50-50, dead even like it was in 2000, what state is most in play.  And you know what we came up with?  New Jersey.  Now nobody would imagine that New Jersey could go either way.

O'REILLY:  Yes.  Not anymore.

Now Bush is calculating what you said, that if he does give the amnesty, all right, he's going to peel off 30 percent of the Hispanic vote.

MORRIS:  This -- this is the equivalent of...

O'REILLY:  But is that true?

MORRIS:  It is true.  It's the equivalent of John Kennedy winning the black vote by submitting the civil-rights bill and Lyndon Johnson by passing it.  The black vote used to be up for grabs.

Republican -- Nixon was -- got most of the black vote in the early going in the polling.  It was when Kennedy called Martin Luther King's widow and then filed the civil-rights bill and Johnson passed it that blacks and Democrats became...

O'REILLY:  So this -- you think this will help the Republicans.

MORRIS:  This is the equivalent of the '64 civil-rights bill, if he can get it through.

O'REILLY:  Oh, he'll get it through.

MORRIS:  It will flip the Mexican vote.

O'REILLY:  Do you think so?  That big?

MORRIS:  That's right.  Not 60-30 to 30-60, but he'll get 35 percent, 40 percent, 45 percent...

O'REILLY:  That's enough to win New Mexico and...

MORRIS:  ...because the important thing to understand about the Mexicans is they're Catholic, as are most Hispanics...

O'REILLY:  Right.  Right.

MORRIS:  ...and on social values issues, they should be Republicans.

O'REILLY:  Yes, but, you know, all of the blue states that Zogby pointed out to have heavy Catholic populations, and I made the joke...

MORRIS:  Right.

O'REILLY:  ...are the Catholics not going to church because the blue states don't go to church.  And you know we're generalizing here.  Ladies and gentlemen, I live in New York, and I go to church.  I mean I'm there alone.  Even the priest leaves when I show up.


O'REILLY:  Right.  I shouldn't -- anyway, but I don't know if Catholicism or that are kind of a religious outlook means anything in politics anymore.

MORRIS:  Oh, it does with Hispanic voters.


MORRIS:  And, you know, [Mexican President] Vicente Fox (search) was my client in Mexico, which is not why I'm saying this.  I don't work for him now.  But he won on a pro-Catholic thing.  He went to the Virgin of Guadalupe (search), and he changed the tradition of secular governance in Mexico...

O'REILLY:  Well...

MORRIS:  ...to make it link to the...

O'REILLY:  Howard Dean's even trying to do that now, if he can figure out where Job is in the bible.

MORRIS:  That's right.  Actually...

O'REILLY:  A little arrow here.

MORRIS:  It's -- it's sort of my nightmare.  You're trying to brief a candidate running for president, and you have to tell him where Job is.

O'REILLY:  Yes, Job.  But, look, his...

MORRIS:  It's not in the debate handbook.

O'REILLY:  That's why I don't think Howard Dean is as solid as you think he is and some others.

MORRIS:  Yes, but wait until they meet Wesley Clark.

O'REILLY:  Well, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait, wait.  You get into South Carolina, and these people -- they're not going to embrace Howard Dean like in New Hampshire and Iowa, and...

MORRIS:  No, but the South Carolina primary is half black, and...

O'REILLY:  They're -- they're not big Dean fans, African-Americans.

MORRIS:  I think that the point is that the very system that was put in place to stop Howard Dean will now give him the nomination.

O'REILLY:  Yes, because he's got the money and the others don't have it.

MORRIS:  And because it's such a steep curve over that five-week period...

O'REILLY:  Right.

MORRIS:  ...that Clark and the other guys can't climb.

O'REILLY:  All right.  Dick Morris.

You heard it, everybody.

Thanks, Dick, for coming in.

MORRIS:  Thank you.

O'REILLY:  We appreciate it.

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